Immunity and herd immunity

Whistler
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Immunity and herd immunity

Post by Whistler » April 27, 2020, 10:37 am

There have been multiple opinions about this subject, when WHO stated earlier that there was no guarantee that those who had COVID could be infected again, it made me shiver. Did that mean a vaccine would also be ineffective? A build up of some level of immunity in the community is as important as a vaccine, without that, there was a danger that vaccinations would have to be ongoing as we would rapidly lose immunity either from exposure to the virus or via a vaccine. Without some sort of immunity, second and third waves of COVID, as serious as the initial wave, were pretty much guaranteed.

The jury is still out on Sweden's, herd immunity approach, so far it does not look good. In the last week 4,355 infections, 1700 in intensive care and 681 deaths. Last week alone accounted for more than 20% of Sweden's infections and around 33% of all deaths, not good numbers if you believe in herd immunity. Belarus has also gone down this path, but not on a reasoned basis, it is because Lukashenko is a gold plated tw@t. Nearly 50% of Belarus infections have occurred in the past week, over 10,000 in total and climbing faster than any other nation in the world. This is their official figures, but take whatever comes out of Belarus with a big mitt full of salt.

However, this is heartening news from WHO

https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/who ... 54nft.html


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Khun Paul
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Re: Immunity and herd immunity

Post by Khun Paul » April 27, 2020, 11:45 am

Post on this one as well, it is almost required reading :
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/2020 ... o-covid-19

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Re: Immunity and herd immunity

Post by joudon » April 27, 2020, 1:13 pm

IMO nothing from the BBC is required reading.

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Re: Immunity and herd immunity

Post by vincemunday » April 27, 2020, 1:19 pm

Absolutely 100% agree joudon, they are a pitiful shower these days.
The forest was shrinking daily but the trees kept voting for the axe as its handle was made of wood and they thought it was one of them.

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Re: Immunity and herd immunity

Post by fdimike » April 27, 2020, 1:24 pm

Interesting to note that there's still no vaccine for MERS or SARS. I believe the same may hold true for Covid 19. It seems like wearing a mask in public, washing your hands frequently and social distancing will become the "new norm".
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Re: Immunity and herd immunity

Post by Whistler » April 27, 2020, 1:52 pm

fdimike wrote:
April 27, 2020, 1:24 pm
Interesting to note that there's still no vaccine for MERS or SARS. I believe the same may hold true for Covid 19. It seems like wearing a mask in public, washing your hands frequently and social distancing will become the "new norm".
No vaccine either, for a range, Malaria, Herpes, HIV and many others, all of which scientists have been chasing for years.

It rekindles memories I had 18 years ago, I was very fit and healthy then had something. It was so painful I had trouble dressing, getting arms into a shirt, pulling on a jumper etc. The testing showed I had previously had cat flu, measles, Rubella and tuberculous, the Dr suspected I had Ross River virus, but the tests were inconclusive, the symptoms went away before a diagnoses was made. There is a lot of guesswork in medicine, still a bit away from being an exact science.
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Re: Immunity and herd immunity

Post by stattointhailand » April 27, 2020, 2:00 pm

Still no proper cure for the common cold and they have now been looking for over 100 years

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Re: Immunity and herd immunity

Post by tamada » April 27, 2020, 2:56 pm

vincemunday wrote:
April 27, 2020, 1:19 pm
Absolutely 100% agree joudon, they are a pitiful shower these days.
Dunno vince. Andrew Marr did a nice job dismantling 'wee jimmy cranky' for you yesterday... according to the Daily Express I mean.

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Re: Immunity and herd immunity

Post by samsam » April 27, 2020, 2:59 pm

Whistler wrote:
April 27, 2020, 10:37 am
There have been multiple opinions about this subject, when WHO stated earlier that there was no guarantee that those who had COVID could be infected again, it made me shiver. Did that mean a vaccine would also be ineffective? A build up of some level of immunity in the community is as important as a vaccine, without that, there was a danger that vaccinations would have to be ongoing as we would rapidly lose immunity either from exposure to the virus or via a vaccine. Without some sort of immunity, second and third waves of COVID, as serious as the initial wave, were pretty much guaranteed.

The jury is still out on Sweden's, herd immunity approach, so far it does not look good. In the last week 4,355 infections, 1700 in intensive care and 681 deaths. Last week alone accounted for more than 20% of Sweden's infections and around 33% of all deaths, not good numbers if you believe in herd immunity. Belarus has also gone down this path, but not on a reasoned basis, it is because Lukashenko is a gold plated tw@t. Nearly 50% of Belarus infections have occurred in the past week, over 10,000 in total and climbing faster than any other nation in the world. This is their official figures, but take whatever comes out of Belarus with a big mitt full of salt.

However, this is heartening news from WHO

https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/who ... 54nft.html
Some of your numbers are wrong, in intensive are today under 600 cases, in total there have been 1699 cases, in total there been 1327 patients that means that some people been there more than one time. The excess mortality rate is about 1000 from last week of mars-april 23 compared with the numbers from the same time periode 2015-2020,at this time today today 2194 deaths are reported. Stay safe and for those of you who like a beer and still got some cheers :D :D :D

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Re: Immunity and herd immunity

Post by Whistler » April 27, 2020, 4:59 pm

There are 1256 Swedes in Intensive care as at April 24, cases, death rates and testing levels are also from official sources

My biggest concern with Sweden is the upsurge in reported cases since the beginning of April, it has gone from under 100 cases to averaging 625 per day for the past 10 days. While many countries have flattened the curve, Sweden's still heads North. With an incubation period of between 14 and 28 days, this looks like a death in three figures deaths per day well into the middle of May and beyond. With the infection rate at high levels due to country policy, the death rate for a country with only 10M people is alarming. Sweden has 1/7 the population of Thailand but a death rate based on population 300 times greater than Thailand, that huge figure is getting much worse on a daily basis.

There is no widespread testing in Sweden, the recommendations for testing covers those who are ill and health/aged care people only, so there are no statistics for the rest of the population.

My company is building a comprehensive model on worldwide trends, most of our inputs are direct from WHO, some from less formal sources (like ICU patients), we should have it completed in about a week giving us a daily view of what is working and what is not Meanwhile the table below shows how things are tracking for Sweden.

Date cases deaths
26/04/2020 610 40
25/04/2020 812 131
24/04/2020 751 84
23/04/2020 682 172
22/04/2020 545 185
21/04/2020 392 40
20/04/2020 563 29
19/04/2020 606 111
18/04/2020 676 67
17/04/2020 613 130
16/04/2020 482 170
15/04/2020 497 114
14/04/2020 465 20
13/04/2020 332 12
12/04/2020 466 17
11/04/2020 544 77
10/04/2020 722 106
9/04/2020 726 96
8/04/2020 487 114
7/04/2020 376 76
6/04/2020 387 28
5/04/2020 365 40
4/04/2020 612 51
3/04/2020 519 43
2/04/2020 512 59
1/04/2020 407 34
31/03/2020 328 36
30/03/2020 253 8
29/03/2020 401 10
28/03/2020 240 26
27/03/2020 296 24
26/03/2020 238 6
25/03/2020 256 11
24/03/2020 110 4
23/03/2020 160 1
22/03/2020 123 4
21/03/2020 200 6
20/03/2020 222 0
19/03/2020 134 2
18/03/2020 46 1
17/03/2020 89 4
16/03/2020 108 2
15/03/2020 149 0
14/03/2020 155 0
13/03/2020 158 0
12/03/2020 136 1
11/03/2020 78 0
10/03/2020 45 0
9/03/2020 42 0
8/03/2020 4 0
7/03/2020 76 0
6/03/2020 26 0
5/03/2020 11 0
4/03/2020 9 0
3/03/2020 1 0
2/03/2020 1 0
1/03/2020 1 0
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Re: Immunity and herd immunity

Post by noosard » April 27, 2020, 5:14 pm

Iceland and UAE are the only countries to tested 10% or more of the population

and Faeroe Islands, Faukland Islands

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Khun Paul
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Re: Immunity and herd immunity

Post by Khun Paul » April 27, 2020, 5:20 pm

vincemunday wrote:
April 27, 2020, 1:19 pm
Absolutely 100% agree joudon, they are a pitiful shower these days.
If you actually read it, it is not from the BBC but a scientific resume of how and why regarding this Virus, again your ego stops you from learning. Just because it was hosted on the BBC Future programme it is rubbish . How would know if you never read it, honestly some peoples arrogance is amazing.

I suggested it was worth reading, but as usual your two pennys worth is to rubbish it. Congratulations you are almost like the POTUS . Ignorant

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Re: Immunity and herd immunity

Post by Whistler » April 27, 2020, 5:32 pm

noosard wrote:
April 27, 2020, 5:14 pm
Iceland and UAE are the only countries to tested 10% or more of the population

and Faeroe Islands, Faukland Islands
The world average is 1.219% Of the 85 countries that automatically update their testing, the total tests worldwide is less than 25M
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Re: Immunity and herd immunity

Post by samsam » April 27, 2020, 5:37 pm

A god source of information of info in sweden is scb, translated, statistic central agency, their numbers are always correct, a way of understanding the swedish numbers is that all people who dies that are tested positive to corona is registered in these numbers, no matter what the cause of death was,i give you an extreme example, 90 old year dies of heart failure, in many countries that dont go under death by corona but death by heart failure, if that was a seasonal flu and that person died it would be registered as by death heart failure even in sweden.

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Re: Immunity and herd immunity

Post by rick » April 27, 2020, 9:45 pm

Sweden's approach is beginning to look shaky, when i checked a couple of days ago, they had the world's 7th worst death rate per million - far worse than other Scandinavian countries. Their exponential growth has been slower than many other European countries (probably a cultural thing and more space) but yes the trend is still going up (the daily count is unreliable. it always falls Saturday-Monday, but compare each day to that a week earlier).

The big question is how many it actually kills, as many deaths are reported as something else, due to low levels of testing.

For those saying it is 'Just a flu'. It has killed as many or more than flu in previous years, but has done so in just 2 months. And it is still just getting started in half the world. The unanswered question IS how many have caught it but didn't know it. So we may end up with herd immunity in 6 months anyway..... we just do not know. And if like the common cold? Catch it a couple of times a year?

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Re: Immunity and herd immunity

Post by papafarang » April 28, 2020, 2:47 am

The question is will we get Immunity ? They don't even know yet. If we don't and we have to !I've with it ,then it won't be long before we have very few old people left. Scary thought that one
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Re: Immunity and herd immunity

Post by saint » April 28, 2020, 5:04 am

I would not worry about it too much Dean . There will always be plenty of people out there old before their time .

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Re: Immunity and herd immunity

Post by Khun Paul » April 28, 2020, 7:00 am

I was discussing this with my medical family and what I think this virus has taught us is the simple fact, we have all become complacent over the years and our personal health has deteriorated as has our personal cleanliness. We may think we are clean and health but this virus is finding the cracks and exploiting them.
There are not any stats yet but it is thought that generally people with other health issues ARE at risk more so than those with no health problems, as a recent study shows some people sail through this completely unscathed even those with health problems, others succumb .
So just maybe a complete change of attitude relating to social life as we knew it plus changing long held habits, will make it safer. As it was will no longer be safe or healthy . Building bigger and better ways of transporting hundreds at a time no longer an option , a step back in time as it were, no longer rushing about like headless chickens , enjoy life and chill.

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Re: Immunity and herd immunity

Post by Whistler » April 28, 2020, 1:42 pm

The virus came from bats and stupid Chinese beliefs eating wildlife was some sort off medicine, it did not come from poor hygiene
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Re: Immunity and herd immunity

Post by tamada » April 28, 2020, 1:52 pm

Native to bats but doing the jump to humans in it's native form would take several generations of bat eaters and a Pangolin or two. This one was reverse-engineered in a bio-lab in China so that the spiky bits would more easily enter the cells of non-bats.

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