Bank of Thailand Warns of Tourism Meltdown

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Bank of Thailand Warns of Tourism Meltdown

Post by Udon Map » September 2, 2020, 2:35 am

Next year may see greater impact


From The Bangkok Post
By: Somruedi Banchongduang

Meltdown 1.jpg
Passengers disembarking a chartered flight from Sydney at Suvarnabhumi airport. Only Thai returnees and foreigners with homes and work permits in Thailand were allowed to board the flight. The passengers are required to quarantine for 14 days. (Photo by Arnun Chonmahatrakool)

Thailand's tourism industry will face greater risks next year if the government continues to restrict foreign travellers from entering the country, says the Bank of Thailand.

Foreign arrivals could be downgraded from a projection of 8 million this year and 16 million next year given the deflated tourism outlook, said Don Nakornthab, senior director of the economic and policy department.

The Tourism and Sports Ministry and the National Economic and Social Development Council already cut their projections for this year's foreign tourist arrivals to 6.7 million and next year's to 12 million.

The difference of 1.3 million foreign arrivals this year in projections from the central bank and the two state organisations would result in a 0.5% decline in Thailand's GDP, said Mr Don.

The loss cannot be computed directly into full-year GDP calculations because there are other economic factors to be considered, he said.

Thailand received no foreign tourist arrivals for the fourth consecutive month in July as international travel restrictions remain in place to safeguard against a second outbreak.

Foreign arrivals to Thailand reached 40 million in 2019, with revenue generated from the tourism industry contributing almost 20% of GDP.

With inbound flight restrictions still in place, the ratio of foreign travellers is expected to shrink by 100% year-on-year between April and December, said Mr Don.

He said the government should consider looking into proper measures to allow foreign travellers to return to stir tourism and economic growth momentum.

"If foreign travellers still cannot visit the country, this will impact Thailand's economic growth more severely next year. The government should strike a balance between tourism measures and outbreak containment," said Mr Don.

The central bank also factored in the possibility of a second wave outbreak as other Asian countries have suffered this predicament. New infections of around 20-30 cases per day are acceptable, he said.

The economy continued to improve in July, driven by public spending and the relaxation of lockdown measures both in Thailand and abroad.

Public spending, excluding transfers, continued to expand from the same period last year, attributed by marked expansion in capital expenditures both from the central government and state-owned enterprises.

Private consumption indicators, merchandise export value and manufacturing production exhibited lighter contractions.

In July, exports contracted by 11.9% year-on-year, lower than a 24.6% contraction in June. Excluding gold exports, Thai shipments fell by 14.3% year-on-year.

Private investment indicators in July contracted 12.8%, higher than 10.2% in the previous month. This reflects fragile confidence among business operators as high economic uncertainty prevails.

The labour market improved somewhat, reflected by a decline in the number of workers registered for a temporary suspension of business, consistent with the recovery in economic activities, but overall employment conditions remain weak.


Courtesy of The Bangkok Post

https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/19 ... m-meltdown



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Re: Bank of Thailand Warns of Tourism Meltdown

Post by Kenr6583 » September 2, 2020, 3:41 am

Looks like Thailand is in a catch-22. I know many countries are in the same situation. I have not looked up the statistics on this, but I am sure Thailand's GDP relies on tourism more than most countries.

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Re: Bank of Thailand Warns of Tourism Meltdown

Post by tamada » September 2, 2020, 6:01 am

That "almost 20% of GDP" they are quoted as claiming comes from tourism is higher than any other previous government guesses at actual numbers. Searching for a more precise estimate shows numbers that float between 11% and 16%. Despite having a mature domestic and international tourist market, TAT, other related government groups and tourism industry-related business organisations, they all seem to pull these numbers out of their butts.

But they do know precisely how much a diesel submarine or two will cost.

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Re: Bank of Thailand Warns of Tourism Meltdown

Post by dunroaming » September 2, 2020, 7:15 am

It's hard to quantify tbh as much of the expat tourist cash is spent on companions and this is distributed up country and supports countless people in the villages. The same can be said for boyfriend or boyfriends in some cases transferring cash from overseas hard to express as a percentage of GDP

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Re: Bank of Thailand Warns of Tourism Meltdown

Post by tamada » September 2, 2020, 9:39 am

dunroaming wrote:
September 2, 2020, 7:15 am
It's hard to quantify tbh as much of the expat tourist cash is spent on companions and this is distributed up country and supports countless people in the villages. The same can be said for boyfriend or boyfriends in some cases transferring cash from overseas hard to express as a percentage of GDP
The Thai tourism authorities should stop padding their numbers with two-week millionaires and overseas sponsors. There's probably far more ladies working in the factories around Bangkok and the Eastern seaboard than demimondaines working bars and sending money home for sick buffaloes anyway. That's not a new trend either. Ageing farang Lothario's have been complaining for years about the lack of the younger, prettier and more pneumatic mattress thrasher. It's so bad, they've even stopped retiring to Soi Samphan.

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Re: Bank of Thailand Warns of Tourism Meltdown

Post by dunroaming » September 2, 2020, 9:43 am

Ah well since I've read the news and sent out a batch of work emails already, time for a cuppie tea and a rowie with butter and marmalade

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Re: Bank of Thailand Warns of Tourism Meltdown

Post by Drunk Monkey » September 2, 2020, 10:15 am

Twill take years n years for Thai tourism to recover from.this years pandemic .. including the new normal there after which will.put off nany from.travelling at all.

Even the outfit running country havent a clue if n when tourists returning will /can happen ..

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Re: Bank of Thailand Warns of Tourism Meltdown

Post by tamada » September 2, 2020, 11:12 am

dunroaming wrote:
September 2, 2020, 9:43 am
Ah well since I've read the news and sent out a batch of work emails already, time for a cuppie tea and a rowie with butter and marmalade
I see what you just done...

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Re: Bank of Thailand Warns of Tourism Meltdown

Post by dunroaming » September 2, 2020, 11:59 am

tamada wrote:
September 2, 2020, 11:12 am
dunroaming wrote:
September 2, 2020, 9:43 am
Ah well since I've read the news and sent out a batch of work emails already, time for a cuppie tea and a rowie with butter and marmalade
I see what you just done...
Thought you might \:D/

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Re: Bank of Thailand Warns of Tourism Meltdown

Post by pipoz4444 » September 3, 2020, 2:24 pm

tamada wrote:
September 2, 2020, 6:01 am
That "almost 20% of GDP" they are quoted as claiming comes from tourism is higher than any other previous government guesses at actual numbers. Searching for a more precise estimate shows numbers that float between 11% and 16%. Despite having a mature domestic and international tourist market, TAT, other related government groups and tourism industry-related business organisations, they all seem to pull these numbers out of their butts.

But they do know precisely how much a diesel submarine or two will cost.
It’s not just the numerical number of the reduction in GDP.

It’s also that part of the revenue flowing from your average Tourist/Visitor, that usually flows direct to the working Thai girl/man, (bypassing the fingers of the Government), to then finds its way up to the likes of Isaan etc. to the support of the children and or parents. I don’t know how you quantity this or measure what actual percentage it is from average daily expenditure of a Tourist is that goes direct to the Thai individual, that the Government doesn’t control. At a guess,
38,000,000 Visitor/Tourist per Year
266.00 Million Tourist Days Per Year

Approx.: 38,000,000 tourists x spending say an average of B 2,000 a day on food, drink and entertainment, x say 25% of it going direct to the Thai lady or small Thai business, works out to about TB 19.00 Billion per day (approx. 613 Million US per day) x staying on average 7 days.

It is also the impact on higher and longer term unemployment. Like a number of Countries, Thailand does not have a safety net for the unemployed who end up staying unemployed for a long time, as a result of the Covid 19.

Then you consider the number of Thai ladies who are single supporting parents, because their Thai husband dumped them at a young age for a younger one. For them to feed and raise their children with parents who may not be in a position to support them, almost impossible. No Income, No Husband and No Parental support, so where do they go? Likewise for the little street Vendor or very small family Thai business, and the likes.

Those Thais up country and also in Pattaya etc, are being and will continue to be deprived of income, without that constant flow to new foreign tourists. This may no effect or impact on the more elite Thais in Bangkok or those in Government, to the same extent and in all likelihood they will see very little real change in their daily lifestyle (with or without Foreign tourist(, for some time, but maybe not forever. :-$ :-k

If you take this direct amount of cash away from the Thais who live up country and around Pattaya way, for a long and sustained period of time, what will happen to that part of the Thai society :-k :-k :-k

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Last edited by pipoz4444 on September 8, 2020, 8:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Bank of Thailand Warns of Tourism Meltdown

Post by pipoz4444 » September 8, 2020, 2:49 pm

The grim reality of the future, not only for Pattaya, as it will have a knock on affect up country

https://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/118145 ... paign=news

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Re: Bank of Thailand Warns of Tourism Meltdown

Post by Laan Yaa Mo » September 8, 2020, 6:32 pm

pipoz4444 wrote:
September 3, 2020, 2:24 pm

If you take this direct amount of cash away from the Thais who live up country and around Pattaya way, for a long and sustained period of time, what will happen to that part of the Thai society :-k :-k :-k

pipoz4444
They will have to get those sick buffaloes up and running again, and out to the fields to till the land. Then, as Lenny said in Mice and Men, they can live off the fat of the land.
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Re: Bank of Thailand Warns of Tourism Meltdown

Post by mech_401 » September 8, 2020, 6:51 pm

. . . and have rabbits :-s

i honestly don't know how so many have survived
with zero income for months now. big debt coming

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Re: Bank of Thailand Warns of Tourism Meltdown

Post by Doodoo » September 8, 2020, 10:07 pm

Something could happen in Canuck Land with the Injuns revolting when they stop getting their checks in the mail, if there is any mail. Best learn how to circle the wagons

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Re: Bank of Thailand Warns of Tourism Meltdown

Post by rick » September 8, 2020, 11:14 pm

So far have seen little evidence of an impact on Udon. Maybe more rice planted, that's all i can see. No extra homeless so far, or hoards of unemployed wandering around. Maybe just quietly staying with family.

Spent the long weekend in Pattaya. First thing i noticed, while Udon Thani airport was open and all services running, Utapao was empty, only services open were the toilets. The flights there and back were full. Got taken to the Pattaya floating market - a real tourist trap but over half the shops were closed and no 'entertainments, highlight was watching a water monitor swim across the pond... I told the wife to ask for a refund but of course she wouldn't. Our hotel was sold out, but they were offering a good deal. Full of middle class Thais, SUV's and no lack of money. The beach was pretty full, but i think many were day trippers -99% Thai Shops along Beach road were all open, elsewhere some had shut down but not a lot. Walking street was like a derelict suburban shopping centre in the UK, waiting for the bulldozers.

Tourism still exists, but the nature of it has changed for now, for the businesses it is adapt or die. The only game in town is catering to affluent Thais, mainly families. Beer bars, bargirls aren't needed; restaurants need to provide good food and no ripoffs - no chinese to exploit and british food not needed. Possibly there is a small resident expat demand, but supply will far exceed demand.

Those who cannot tap into that new market are doomed, cannot see any real change in foreign tourism in the next 6 months.

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Re: Bank of Thailand Warns of Tourism Meltdown

Post by jackspratt » September 8, 2020, 11:21 pm

Thanks for the first hand update, rick.

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Re: Bank of Thailand Warns of Tourism Meltdown

Post by vincemunday » September 9, 2020, 6:43 am

One thing I’ve noticed in the village and surrounding area is the number of new drinks shops, pork ball stalls and goidyell shops that have opened over the last couple of months. They’re an enterprising bunch these Esan girls and it looks like a few who have come back from the tourist areas are doing whatever they can to earn a few bob, fair play to them, it’s good to see.
The forest was shrinking daily but the trees kept voting for the axe as its handle was made of wood and they thought it was one of them.

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Re: Bank of Thailand Warns of Tourism Meltdown

Post by fdimike » September 9, 2020, 8:50 am

The Thai government is saying they will bring in some 60,000 migrant workers to fill factory and construction jobs here in Thailand. At the same time Thais are crying about having no money and no job because of the lack of tourists and asking for more from the government. I would suggest these unemployed Thais learn how to work in the factories and on the construction sites and leave the migrant workers in their home country. They may not make a bundle of money but will learn some skills other than working in a bar/massage selling "favors". The number of new "massage" parlors has skyrocketed in Nong Samrong alone. We've gone from 1 to at least 10 in the last 6 months. I believe the same applies all around Udon. The situation in other places around Thailand such as Pattaya is grim with hundreds of Thai women (check out current youtube) sitting around in bars/massage parlors waiting for the elusive foreign tourist instead of going to find a real job.
Here's another novel idea which doesn't require rocket science. The Thai government organizes an "army" of workers nationwide, pays them a decent wage to cut the grass along the roads and pick up the trash their compatriots toss out at random because they're too lazy to dispose of the trash properly. It would seem to me everybody would benefit assuming the money goes where it's designed to go and not in some politicians pocket.
Here's one more to think about. Allow retired native speaking farangs to volunteer to help Thai teachers struggling to teach English instead of the government complaining about the poor English language skills of Thai students. The government could also hire Thai teaching assistants to help teachers in overcrowded classrooms learn. The situation is especially bad in the rural schools some of which have only 50 - 60 students without any English teacher to help them. Additionally, on the other side of the coin are many rural primary schools which are severally overcrowded with upwards of 45 students in a classroom making teaching/learning next to impossible. I'm familiar with a very large primary school in Kut Chop which has nearly 1,000 students in K - P6 which is a great example of overcrowding. The teachers are overwhelmed with 45 students per class with no provisions for the slow learners, ADD students etc.
It really doesn't take much thought to improve the life of the Thai people who are WILLING to work and a government willing to REALLY help.
An ex-pat in the Land of Smile

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Re: Bank of Thailand Warns of Tourism Meltdown

Post by papafarang » September 9, 2020, 11:40 am

We could expand our business IF we could find a worker. It seems anyone coming for a job gets shocked when they find out it is work we want , and always ends the same way . give my wife some sob story , borrow some cash and 'poof' their gone never to be seen again. This happens over and over again. We've had staff steal our recipe books ,staff stealing drinks , even stealing cutlery. We came to the conclusion that its not worth employing anyone anymore . I guess this is why they have to import workers from abroad
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