germany plunging into recession

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yartims
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germany plunging into recession

Post by yartims » August 14, 2019, 7:29 pm

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... recession/

European markets slumped after new data shows Germany’s economy shrank in the second quarter, and an inverted US bond yield curve sparked fresh recession warnings.

Stocks were down across the continent as traders fled to safe haven assets such as gold and the Japanese yen in anticipation of an upcoming economic storm.

In the late morning, the US and UK two-year/10-year yield curves — referring to the difference in payback between differently-dated government debts — went negative, or ‘inverted’, a reliable indication that a recession is on its way.

The US yield curve has inverted ahead of nearly every downturn in the country for the past 50 years, with only one false signal across the period.

GDP data released this morning showed Germany’s economy is already halfway to recession, after shrinking in the three months to June as global tensions put pressure on its export-driven manufacturing sector. Europe’s largest economy contracted by 0.1pc in the second quarter, following what state statistical office Destatis called “a slight decline in economic performance”.

Read more: Trade war and no-deal Brexit fears weigh on Germany's struggling economy


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Re: germany plunging into recession

Post by stattointhailand » August 14, 2019, 7:59 pm

Sorry, did I miss your thread saying that the UK economy had plunged into recession for the first time in many years earlier this week?
I'm sure the amount announced was about DOUBLE the level of Germany's :-k

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Re: germany plunging into recession

Post by yartims » August 14, 2019, 8:02 pm

UK has record employment right now so no signs of such a thing as yet
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Re: germany plunging into recession

Post by stattointhailand » August 14, 2019, 8:19 pm

Easy to get record employment ....... just ask anyone who survived the Thatcher era...... just exclude thousands from being able to apply for jobs, and voila record low unemployment stats =;

"Fears that the UK could be heading for its first recession in a decade have been stoked by grim official figures showing that the economy contracted in the second quarter of 2019.

Brexit uncertainty, car plant shutdowns and the running down of stock built up before the original end of March deadline for Britain’s EU exit resulted in gross domestic product shrinking by 0.2% in the three months ending in June.

News from the Office for National Statistics of the first fall in quarterly GDP in six and a half years sparked immediate speculation that a further bout of Brexit jitters leading up to the new 31 October departure date could lead to a second successive quarter of negative growth – the technical definition of a recession.

If there had not been stockpiling prior to the last BREXIT deadline the GDP would have shrunk in that qtr, thus meaning this would have been the second consecutive GDP "negative growth" and therefore recession

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Re: germany plunging into recession

Post by GT93 » August 15, 2019, 8:16 am

Things looking a bit wobbly out there now.

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Re: germany plunging into recession

Post by yartims » August 27, 2019, 2:23 am

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/germany-uproa ... 00713.html
Most Germans live by the credo that saving is a virtue, but the European Central Bank’s negative interest rates risk making a mockery of the national obsession, prompting politicians to seek ways to insulate thrifty citizens and keep the burden on the country’s beleaguered banks.

Finance Minister Olaf Scholz says he’ll look into whether it’s possible to prevent German banks from charging most retail-banking clients for deposits, after such a measure was proposed by the leader of Bavaria. Lenders have rejected the idea, saying bans don’t ultimately help clients and could even destabilize financial markets.

Germany’s overcrowded banking industry has long contended with sub-par profitability, but after five years of negative rates, lenders are running out of ways to offset the hit to earnings. With the country gearing up for regional elections next month, the ECB is an easy target for a country known for its risk-averse attitude to money and its habit of hording savings in checking accounts. At 2.35 trillion euros ($2.6 trillion), no other country in the euro area has a larger pile of retail deposits.

Germany’s citizens also save far more of their disposable income than most other Europeans. The country’s savings rate was around 10% in 2017, almost twice the euro-area average, according to Deutsche Bank AG. On average, Germans held more than 40% of their financial assets in the form of bank deposits in 2018.

Negative rates, which mean deposits decline over time rather than increase, “would be bad for all savers,” said Juergen Dengel, a 40-year-old civil servant from Bonn. If negative rates were introduced at his bank, he would consider withdrawing his money and using it to build a home -- even if that meant going into debt.
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Re: germany plunging into recession

Post by yartims » September 6, 2019, 4:58 pm

https://www.ft.com/content/59570a76-d06 ... ded7a7fe3f

astFT German economy
German factory output drops as economic gloom deepens
July figures provide further evidence of recession in Europe’s biggest economy
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Re: germany plunging into recession

Post by yartims » September 6, 2019, 5:06 pm

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/11746 ... est-update

EU PANIC: Merkel ordered to veto Brexit delay – No deal 'better for Germany'
GERMANY should veto another Brexit delay as no deal will help to stabilise the country’s ailing economy, Marcel Fratzcher, president of the German Institute for Economic Research has claimed.
By Joe Barnes, Brussels Correspondent
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Re: germany plunging into recession

Post by Lone Star » September 7, 2019, 7:01 am

.

Reuters characterizes German industrial orders as "plunging."

Apparently, the causes are directly related to a reduction in orders from the UK and China.

Germany's problems are a direct result of Beijing not receiving that always-expected US wealth from trade. The Chinese Communists are making it worse for themselves (and their other trading partners) because they don't have any extra money due to propping up all the Chinese companies hit with tariffs; and they keep reducing the value to their currency to beat the tariffs. All of it is impacting China's ability to be the trading partner that they once were.

While China makes their exports less expensive with the currency devaluation, they are making their imports from other countries MORE EXPENSIVE. The Chinese are therefore buying less from other trading partners. Germany is one of them.

If China would just agree to free and fair reciprocal trade and stop stealing, all would be right with the world -- mostly. And wrongly, everyone blames Trump BECAUSE TRUMP. It stings even more because the US economy is still chugging along. The US economy continues to prove that they don't need China if China doesn't want to adopt free and fair trade. It's not Trump's fault that he is the President of the United States and is defending Main Street and American workers for the first time in decades. Trump is also taking measures that improve national security.

Trump has flipped the script with an effort to balance trade.



China has a problem, and the rest of the world is beginning to see it.

Besides Communist surveillance and other similar issues, the Chinese Communists are burning cash and making their money worth less. The Chinese don't have the money to buy and rescue Germany or the EU.
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Re: germany plunging into recession

Post by yartims » December 3, 2019, 7:20 pm

audi has layed 8000 workers for some reason
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Re: germany plunging into recession

Post by jackspratt » December 3, 2019, 7:39 pm

Apparently the German economy has "unplunged" - at least for the time being:
Consumption and exports helped the German economy stay above water in the third quarter, when it unexpectedly eked out a modest expansion to avoid a recession.

Growth in government and household expenditure accelerated, while exports rebounded after a steep decline, according to figures published Friday. That was enough to offset the biggest drop in machinery and equipment investment in more than six years and help the economy register 0.1% growth.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -to-growth
Helped, no doubt, by Audi shifting their focus from auto production to intensive human chicken farming.

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Re: germany plunging into recession

Post by Doodoo » December 3, 2019, 7:40 pm

"audi has layed 8000 workers for some reason"
Usually the reason is they aint selln Cars.

"Audi said it would cut up to 9,500 jobs, or 10.6% of its total staff by 2025, saving 6 billion euros ($6.61 billion), but also create up to 2,000 new positions in the areas of electric mobility and digitalisation."

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Re: germany plunging into recession

Post by Drunk Monkey » December 3, 2019, 7:55 pm

Without wishing to be racist or controversial surely isnt it about time Merkel was .. (keeping on topic ie Audi cars)

Either

a) Replaced with a newer more up to date modern model
or
b) simply chucked on the scrap heap ..

Nowt against Germans they make a good sausage n decent beer .. but "old shaky" has a face like a blistered pisspot and a total Hag IMO

DM

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Re: germany plunging into recession

Post by GT93 » December 4, 2019, 6:34 am

I thought many readers of this forum might be fans of "experience". Women are allowed to show their age too. :lol:

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