US Presidential election odds

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Whistler
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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by Whistler » July 11, 2020, 10:25 am

trekkertony wrote:
July 11, 2020, 9:23 am
Has the cat got whistlers tongue?
Just logged in, see your mailbox


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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by GT93 » July 11, 2020, 10:29 am

:lol:

I think Hilary, if standing again, would beat Trump this time. Trump's record speaks for itself. As soon as any significant problem interrupted the Obama economy, he was going to be in deep shxt.

Trump is so thick that he doesn't appreciate that Covid 19 and the economy go together. Covid 19 and electoral success go together.

I'm looking forward to President Biden working to improve the WHO and working to get the Trump pandemic under control.

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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by Doodoo » July 11, 2020, 11:04 am

Although I dont get to vote, and I could never stand Trump, he could very well pull it off
Remember its not who has the most votes in the USA, the majority doesnt win. This was aparent in the last election and others in the USA Trump had almost 63,000,000 votes while Hillary had almost 66,000,00 and LOST. Same goes for Gore vs Bush where Gore had 547,000 more votes.
Donald a second term , maybe

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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by Whistler » July 11, 2020, 11:14 am

Correct doodoo, the electoral college system is a tad unusual. Reports I read now is that Trump is losing in swing states and may even lose FL, AZ, PA, WI etc, He has not got much of a margin to play with. As many states have winner takes all collegiate voting, it will only take a few key seats like FL which has 29 votes, that would produce a turnabout of 58 votes. If all else stayed the same, the loss of Florida alone would ensure a Biden win
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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by Whistler » July 11, 2020, 6:50 pm

Whistler wrote:
July 11, 2020, 10:25 am
trekkertony wrote:
July 11, 2020, 9:23 am
Has the cat got whistlers tongue?
Just logged in, see your mailbox
Cat got ya tongue Tony?
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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by GT93 » July 12, 2020, 1:36 am

The polling for Trump is very poor in the swing states and look at what's currently happening in the US. Covid 19 is hopelessly out of control in many states and the economy is tanking with it. Older voters (and others) are peeling away from Trump. This isn't surprising as they watch their friends die. Trump hasn't a hope. It's completely different from the last election. Trump is clueless and can't even work out the best strategies to get himself re-elected.

The US is currently a banana republic (not that many Americans might see that):

Image

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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by trekkertony » July 12, 2020, 1:45 am

Last message in the inbox was on the 28th of May, it may pay to resend or contact UM as to why it is not coming through.

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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by GT93 » July 12, 2020, 10:03 am

I love some of the Lincoln Project Trump bashing ads:

https://youtu.be/wFQAYjzLz-c

Vote America or vote Trump. :lol:

The political ads in NZ are really boring compared to these American ones.

This link has a number of the Lincoln Project attack ads:

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/07/04/ ... trump-ads/

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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by tamada » July 12, 2020, 9:31 pm

Biden will pick his running mate next month, possibly with a Thailand link?

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/1 ... ion-357234

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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by Whistler » July 13, 2020, 8:14 am

tamada wrote:
July 12, 2020, 9:31 pm
Biden will pick his running mate next month, possibly with a Thailand link?

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/1 ... ion-357234
She is the ideal candidate in so many respects, but with one very serious drawback that should eliminate any thoughts of her being VP. She was not born in America so can never take over as president should the elderly Biden die in office. That could mean Mitch McConnell would be the new president.
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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by Udon Map » July 13, 2020, 8:45 am

Whistler wrote:
July 13, 2020, 8:14 am
She is the ideal candidate in so many respects....
Apart from the obvious, I see two additional drawbacks. First, she only really has one issue. Second, her speaking style is far from compelling compared to, say, Warren (whom I definitely DON'T WANT as VP), and Harris.

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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by Whistler » July 13, 2020, 8:59 am

Agreed, I would put my hard earned on KH
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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by tamada » July 13, 2020, 9:14 am

Whistler wrote:
July 13, 2020, 8:14 am
tamada wrote:
July 12, 2020, 9:31 pm
Biden will pick his running mate next month, possibly with a Thailand link?

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/1 ... ion-357234
She is the ideal candidate in so many respects, but with one very serious drawback that should eliminate any thoughts of her being VP. She was not born in America so can never take over as president should the elderly Biden die in office. That could mean Mitch McConnell would be the new president.
Good point well made.

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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by jackspratt » July 13, 2020, 9:22 am

I think we need Rico back to give this thread an upgrade on US civics. :D

- the VP must be a "natural born (US) citizen", the same as the president ...... which point I am sure the candidates would be well aware of

- the third in line to the big chair is the House Speaker ......... as it stands, Nancy Pelosi

- McConnell (as it stands) is not even in the queue ....... next in line after Pelosi is President Pro Tempore of the Senate ie Chuck Grassley, and then Sec of State Pompeo

https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._ ... succession

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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by tamada » July 13, 2020, 9:28 am

Looks like U.S. Presidential succession has been bothering some people for some time.

"... An analogous situation could soon arise with the Presidential Succession Act of 1947, now codified at 3 U.S.C. § 19. Imagine, as it is easy to do, that President Trump and Vice President Pence die or are temporarily unable to discharge the powers and duties of the Office of the President due to infection by the coronavirus. The 1947 statute says that in that circumstance, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi “shall … act as President” after resigning as speaker and from Congress. Pelosi would wield all the powers of the presidency. Consistent with the law, she could issue whatever executive orders she wanted, fire disfavored political appointees, and in general direct the executive branch as she pleased.

Whether this scenario is a nightmare or salvation may seem to depend on one’s political outlook. But in truth it’s a nightmare scenario for all Americans because there is a powerful (though not airtight) argument that the Succession Act’s placement of the speaker in the line of presidential succession (and after her, the president pro tempore of the Senate) is contrary to the Constitution’s Succession Clause. That clause states that only an “Officer” may succeed and act as president. Most of the pertinent commentary maintains that the term “Officer” here does not include members of Congress. If that is right, Pelosi could not constitutionally “act as President,” even though the statute says she can.

But who would decide the controversy? Imagine that Pelosi declares herself acting president after Trump and Pence become incapacitated. And imagine that, at the same time, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (the executive officer next in line under the statute) declares himself acting president on the basis of a legal opinion from Attorney General William Barr proclaiming legislative succession to the presidency unconstitutional. How would the matter be resolved? The answer, as we discuss below, is unclear. The nation could thus be deeply divided, in a hard-to-resolve way, on the very basic question: Who is the (acting) president of the United States? This nightmare scenario is at least as plausible as the much-discussed ones about irregularities in the 2020 presidential election. ..."


https://www.lawfareblog.com/presidentia ... -nightmare

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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by Whistler » July 13, 2020, 11:21 am

Of course, Trump could declare himself President for life. Refuse to leave the WH and claim the election was fraudulent. All sorts of scenarios that seemed impossible to imagine prior to 2016 are now on the table.
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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by jackspratt » July 13, 2020, 11:25 am

jackspratt wrote:
July 13, 2020, 9:22 am

- McConnell (as it stands) is not even in the queue ....... next in line after Pelosi is President Pro Tempore of the Senate ie Chuck Grassley, and then Sec of State Pompeo

https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._ ... succession
I was interested in knowing what President Pro Tempore meant exactly ...... in googling that, I learnt that the 4th in line (Grassley) is a sprightly 86 years old. :shock:

Jeesus ..... they like their politicians old in the US.

Term and age limits anyone? =D>

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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by Whistler » July 13, 2020, 11:50 am

jackspratt wrote:
July 13, 2020, 11:25 am

Jeesus ..... they like their politicians old in the US.

Term and age limits anyone? =D>
Queen Elizabeth regards them as youngsters
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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by tamada » July 13, 2020, 12:08 pm

Whistler wrote:
July 13, 2020, 11:50 am
jackspratt wrote:
July 13, 2020, 11:25 am

Jeesus ..... they like their politicians old in the US.

Term and age limits anyone? =D>
Queen Elizabeth regards them as youngsters
Not quite whippersnappers either. I believe that for any serious debate on US term limits, the career politicians have to vote for it by a considerable majority for it to eventuate. I believe that this is where the term, 'turkeys voting for Thanksgiving' originated?

Also note that HM Queen Elizabeth II's Sovereign Grant aint a patch on the trillions that the combined gerontocracy of the US Congress and Senate controls and/or pockets.

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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by JimboPSM » July 13, 2020, 4:13 pm

At the beginning of the 116th Congress the average ages (physical not mental) of Members of the House and Senate were:

• House: 57.6 years.
• Senate: 62.9 years.


Comparison of Average Ages for 113th to 116th Congresses:
  • Congressional age profile.jpg
  • Source: The Congressional Research Service
    Membership of the 116th Congress: A Profile (updated on 1st June 2020):

    https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45583.pdf

    Note: The Profile is based on:
    • The 100 voting members of the Senate.
    • The 435 voting members of the House.
    • The 6 non-voting “members” of the House (5 delegates and 1 resident commissioner).

    The non-voting delegates and non-voting resident commissioner are for:
    • Delegates
      1. The District of Columbia
      2. American Samoa
      3. Guam
      4. The Northern Mariana Islands
      5. The U.S. Virgin Islands
    • Resident commissioner
      1. Puerto Rico
.
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Humiliated to have Johnson (a racist, serial liar and hypocrite) as UK Prime Minister.

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