US Presidential election odds

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Jai2
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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by Jai2 » July 13, 2020, 7:03 pm

the VP must be a "natural born (US) citizen", the same as the president ...... which point I am sure the candidates would be well aware of
I think she is a natural born citizen----if her father is an American regardless of where she was born (BKK)

Harvard Law Review Forum
On the Meaning of “Natural Born Citizen”

The Constitution directly addresses the minimum qualifications necessary to serve as President. In addition to requiring thirty-five years of age and fourteen years of residency, the Constitution limits the presidency to “a natural born Citizen.”
1. U.S. Const. art. II, § 1, cl. 5.
All the sources routinely used to interpret the Constitution confirm that the phrase “natural born Citizen” has a specific meaning: namely, someone who was a U.S. citizen at birth with no need to go through a naturalization proceeding at some later time. And Congress has made equally clear from the time of the framing of the Constitution to the current day that, subject to certain residency requirements on the parents, someone born to a U.S. citizen parent generally becomes a U.S. citizen without regard to whether the birth takes place in Canada, the Canal Zone, or the continental United States



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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by pipoz4444 » July 13, 2020, 8:38 pm

The Twenty-fifth Amendment (Amendment XXV) deals with issues related to presidential succession and disability

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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by Whistler » July 14, 2020, 8:51 am

Interesting observation Pip.

Question, why the fuss about Obama if his mother was American citizen.
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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by Whistler » July 14, 2020, 10:47 am

If they pick Duckworth, I want to be a constitutional lawyer in the USA, coz they will get a lot of work
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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by GT93 » July 14, 2020, 4:35 pm

i recall the Aussie courts got quite a workout with all the "foreigners" sitting in the Aussie federal parliament. I believe a dingbat half-Kiwi sneaked in unlawfully as Deputy Prime Minister. And if he didn't drop his trousers so quickly he might again be Deputy PM. :lol:

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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by pipoz4444 » July 14, 2020, 10:38 pm

Jai2 wrote:
July 13, 2020, 7:03 pm
the VP must be a "natural born (US) citizen", the same as the president ...... which point I am sure the candidates would
On the Meaning of “Natural Born Citizen”

The Constitution directly addresses the minimum qualifications necessary to serve as President. In addition to requiring thirty-five years of age and fourteen years of residency, the Constitution limits the presidency to “a natural born Citizen.”
1. U.S. Const. art. II, § 1, cl. 5.
All the sources routinely used to interpret the Constitution confirm that the phrase “natural born Citizen” has a specific meaning: namely, someone who was a U.S. citizen at birth with no need to go through a naturalization proceeding at some later time. And Congress has made equally clear from the time of the framing of the Constitution to the current day that, subject to certain residency requirements on the parents, someone born to a U.S. citizen parent generally becomes a U.S. citizen without regard to whether the birth takes place in Canada, the Canal Zone, or the continental United States
I suppose you have to go back in time to, 1787 when the Constitution was written, at a time when people were only immigrating to America on a one way trip. Presumably then, the reference to a "natural born Citizen", was a means to ensure that no one hopping off a boat (in those days) could ever be elected to the highest office in the land.

In 1787, they had no concept of today's world, the ease if International travel, with people leaving the USA then living in another country, starting a family in another country and then one day returning to the USA to live and possibly entering Politics. It wasn't in their thinking agenda back then.

Then came along the 14th Amendments to the Constitution in 1868, one hundred years later and it to stated,

"No Person except a natural born Citizen, or a Citizen of the United States, at the time of the Adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the Office of President; neither shall any Person be eligible to that Office who shall not have attained to the Age of thirty-five Years, and been fourteen Years a Resident within the United States"

but didn't define the phrase "natural born Citizen" (according to Wikipedia). They too were probably thinking the same as their mates back in 1787, like "What Idiot would leave this place and go live elsewhere and then come back", given in 1868 the Americas was the place to go to start fresh and make your fortune, I suspect. At that time or just before, you had the Gold Rush in California and the West was opening up, so why would anyone consider leaving.

More people coming than going, so what waste time debating what a natural born Citizen meant, just plug the same words/abstract definition, in the 14th Amendment, same as what you started with 100 years ago, because no one was arguing the meaning of it, then. It makes sense.

I am not sure who was the first Candidate or potential president to raise the issue of what constitutes a "natural born Citizen", when it first arose or if it ever came up before Obama.

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Last edited by pipoz4444 on July 15, 2020, 1:44 am, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by parrot » July 15, 2020, 12:36 am

"but didn't define the phrase "natural born Citizen" (according to Wikipedia). They too were probably think the same as their mates back in 1787, like "What Idiot would leave this place and go live elsewhere and they come back", given in 1868 the Americas was the place to go to start fresh and make your fortune, I suspect. At that time or just before, you had the Gold Rush in California and the West was opening up, so why would anyone consider leaving"

Except that Benjamin Franklin served as a diplomat to France in 1776. As have millions of military members and diplomatic staff over the years. Our daughter was born in Taiwan while I was serving in the military. She was born as an American citizen, state department certificate, US passport at birth. Although she has no political aspirations, if she did, she'd probably be the first to have place of birth annotated as "China" (back in those days).

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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by pipoz4444 » July 15, 2020, 1:39 am

parrot wrote:
July 15, 2020, 12:36 am
"but didn't define the phrase "natural born Citizen" (according to Wikipedia). They too were probably think the same as their mates back in 1787, like "What Idiot would leave this place and go live elsewhere and they come back", given in 1868 the Americas was the place to go to start fresh and make your fortune, I suspect. At that time or just before, you had the Gold Rush in California and the West was opening up, so why would anyone consider leaving"

Except that Benjamin Franklin served as a diplomat to France in 1776. As have millions of military members and diplomatic staff over the years. Our daughter was born in Taiwan while I was serving in the military. She was born as an American citizen, state department certificate, US passport at birth. Although she has no political aspirations, if she did, she'd probably be the first to have place of birth annotated as "China" (back in those days).
I wasn't referring to today's period

BF was one of a very select few

I was suggesting at back in the 1700 & 1800's when the Constitution and 14th Amendment were written/drafted, the majority of people were going to the Americas, rather than leaving to go elsewhere, given it was the place to be, so the Law Makers wording in the Constitution and 14th Amendment was more for that point in time

Granted it was different scenario in the 1900's and in today's years

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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by Whistler » July 15, 2020, 7:54 am

Yep, if Ms Thai/American is selected, it will be a can of worms, the last thing America needs now
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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by Whistler » July 15, 2020, 7:59 am

Mar 04 Trump $1.50 Biden $3.50
Mar 11 Trump $1.80 Biden $2.10
Mar 18 Trump $2:00 Biden $2.00
Mar 25 Trump $1.91 Biden $2.00
Apr 08`Trump $1.91 Biden $2.25
Apr 15 Trump $1.83 Biden $2.20
Apr 22 Trump $1.83 Biden $2.20
Apr 29 Trump $1.91 Biden $2.10
May 6 Trump $1.91 Biden $2.20
May 13 Trump $1.91 Biden $2.20
May 20 Trump $1.91 Biden $2.20
May 27 Trump $1.91 Biden $2.20
Jun 03 Trump $2.00 Biden $2.00
Jun 10 Trump $2.15 Biden $1.85
Jun 17 Trump $2.15 Biden $1.85
Jun 24 Trump $2.50 Biden $1.65
Jun 30 Trump $2.75 Biden $1.53
Jul 8 Trump $2.50 Biden $1.67
Jul 15 Trump $2.60 Biden $1.65
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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by tamada » July 15, 2020, 8:08 am

Whistler wrote:
July 14, 2020, 8:51 am
Interesting observation Pip.

Question, why the fuss about Obama if his mother was American citizen.
That was only the racist and xenophobic righty-tighty whitey talking wasn't it? The Birthers and all that bunkum?
Whistler wrote:
July 14, 2020, 10:47 am
If they pick Duckworth, I want to be a constitutional lawyer in the USA, coz they will get a lot of work
Better get in quick then. I reckon It will have less than the half-life of Obama's 'nationality debate' and possibly even less after 45 gets consigned to the waste receptacle of US presidential history.

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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by Whistler » July 16, 2020, 7:35 pm

Sadly, Kanya West is no longer 3rd favorite. Damned Hilary resumes that role

https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-ente ... 19551.html

Would have loved Kanya to have stayed in the race

'Hey, Mofo's guuna make a dent
inta all thu votes fa the President
Black booty laydies getting votes in plenty
ta vote for me November 2020

.................................
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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by Drunk Monkey » July 17, 2020, 6:55 am

Michelle Obama .. to enter the race ??? .. female n BLACK she would mop up WOULDNT SHE ?? the perfect mopping machine (can i say that)

NO LINK .. its bollocks cos as i made it up :lol: :lol: :lol:

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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by Whistler » July 21, 2020, 8:56 pm

Mar 04 Trump $1.50 Biden $3.50
Mar 11 Trump $1.80 Biden $2.10
Mar 18 Trump $2:00 Biden $2.00
Mar 25 Trump $1.91 Biden $2.00
Apr 08`Trump $1.91 Biden $2.25
Apr 15 Trump $1.83 Biden $2.20
Apr 22 Trump $1.83 Biden $2.20
Apr 29 Trump $1.91 Biden $2.10
May 6 Trump $1.91 Biden $2.20
May 13 Trump $1.91 Biden $2.20
May 20 Trump $1.91 Biden $2.20
May 27 Trump $1.91 Biden $2.20
Jun 03 Trump $2.00 Biden $2.00
Jun 10 Trump $2.15 Biden $1.85
Jun 17 Trump $2.15 Biden $1.85
Jun 24 Trump $2.50 Biden $1.65
Jun 30 Trump $2.75 Biden $1.53
Jul 8 Trump $2.50 Biden $1.67
Jul 15 Trump $2.60 Biden $1.60
Jul 21 Trump $2:70 Biden $1.60
Last edited by Whistler on July 22, 2020, 8:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by Whistler » July 21, 2020, 8:58 pm

...
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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by GT93 » July 23, 2020, 4:11 pm

I'm surprised Trump is paying only $2.70. I think the US is going to struggle to bring the Covid 19 deaths under 1,000 a day for a while.

And he really is a political moron. He recently wished Ghislaine Maxwell well. American mums will have noticed that.

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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by Drunk Monkey » July 25, 2020, 7:56 am

Im predicting a Trump loss in the Nov election .. its not so much that Biden is a worthy challenger he isnt hes a fruitcake but Trumps ratings are so low and hes hated so much just cant see im winning... a president Biden would be a disaster just imagine who he would bring in alongside him ..yep Hillary in the wings waiting for Joe to have an helicopter accident or other.

There is still time for some else to chuck their hat in the ring ???

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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by Mosquito » July 25, 2020, 8:16 am

My 2 cents on Tammy Duckworth, for what it's worth (normally, not much on this site.....but worth thinking about).

At least she'll bring a sense of service and sacrifice to the VP office. For those of you that have served in the military, you know what I mean.

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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by Mosquito » July 25, 2020, 8:37 am

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tammy_Duc ... _education

Worth a read. Only big negative for me would be the 100k Syrians being allowed immigration to the US.

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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by Doodoo » July 25, 2020, 9:15 am

Mosq
alllowing Syrian Immigrants into any country is negative BUT plenty of positives also

"But the economic impact those refugees had on the community weighed in at about $48 million, roughly 10 times the initial resettlement costs."
"Refugees are more likely to be entrepreneurial and enjoy higher rates of successful business ventures compared to natives," the report said. "At the local level, refugees provide increased demand for goods and services through their new purchasing power and can be particularly revitalizing in communities that otherwise have a declining population."

The majority of Millionares in the US are immigrants They show the drive and enthusiasum to better themselves.

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