Ukraine

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rick
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Re: Ukraine

Post by rick » May 14, 2022, 6:26 pm

I think that Putin/Russian army realise that the longer this war goes on, the more weapons Ukraine will get, and winning becomes harder. That's why they are throwing everything at the Ukrainians now, trying to exhaust their stockpiles of weapons and ammunition faster than supplies get to the front. No bullets, no shells no missiles left, then the war becomes a walkover. Cost? To Russia, massive in weapons and men, but they have plenty, and only care about winning.

Although Ukraine is still publicising it's successes, their is also plenty of clues that they are being slowly pushed back in the Donbas. But this is war, and you do not publicise your bad news.

I actually think that NATO will have to decide at some point about escalation - Maybe threaten to occupy Transnistra, as a warning to stop? They intervened to stop genocide in Bosnia and Kosovo, and let's face it, looks like Russia is just as ruthless.

Besides, if we support Ukraine in a long war, the cost will be massive. And world food security? It needs that Ukrainian grain, or food riots will start.



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Re: Ukraine

Post by AlexO » May 14, 2022, 7:37 pm

I actually think that NATO will have to decide at some point about escalation - Maybe threaten to occupy Transnistra, as a warning to stop? They intervened to stop genocide in Bosnia and Kosovo, and let's face it, looks like Russia is just as ruthless.

It was never a NATO operation Rick, purely UN led. We all had to wear UN Blue berets or helmet covers. All military actions had to be authorised by UN representatives. That's why it took so long, unqualified a@@wipes at the top of the decision chain.

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Re: Ukraine

Post by tamada » May 14, 2022, 8:52 pm

AlexO wrote:
May 14, 2022, 7:37 pm
I actually think that NATO will have to decide at some point about escalation - Maybe threaten to occupy Transnistra, as a warning to stop? They intervened to stop genocide in Bosnia and Kosovo, and let's face it, looks like Russia is just as ruthless.

It was never a NATO operation Rick, purely UN led. We all had to wear UN Blue berets or helmet covers. All military actions had to be authorised by UN representatives. That's why it took so long, unqualified a@@wipes at the top of the decision chain.
When the UN voted on Resolution 819 on Bosnia, all 15 nations on the then Security Council voted for intervention. I doubt if the Russians will vote for anything that clips their wings. China will probably vote against and India would probably abstain.

Since EUFOR, the successor to NATO's SFOR and IFOR, will be still busy in the former Yugoslavia until at least November this year, will there be enough resolve to send more 'peacekeepers' into Transnistra?

That's still Moldovan territory after all and right now, Moldova is not an EU member. It's also only in the North Atlantic Cooperation Council, renamed the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council (EAPC). There's no plans for Moldova to apply to join NATO since Moldova's neutrality is enshrined in its constitution.

Double buggered.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by rick » May 15, 2022, 11:27 am

Yes, not strictly Nato. But if it looks like Ukraine may loose (outcome not yet certain), what will EU/Nato do? Just say 'never mind' ? To much rhetoric, to much money, to many refugees; accepting a win by Putin will involve loss of face. Bit like the Falklands - accept the invasion, loose political power, or try to win. But that applies to both sides. Unfortunately the downside is a risk of nuclear war.

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Re: Ukraine

Post by AlexO » May 15, 2022, 12:50 pm

Rick
While almost all NATO member Nations hate what Russia is doing there is no mandate in any NATO scenario to do more. If the UN decides that military action is required (basically not a chance) then some member States would perhaps enter into the conflict. I do believe that your "never mind" option will be the accepted consequence. The reinforcing of Eastern Member states by NATO should, to any right minded person, deter Poo Tin from any dangerous escalation but who knows. In the meantime keep supplying Ukraine with western technologically superior weapons which combined with the bravery of the people may well see Russia having to back down and Putin ousted as a consequence.
No one wants the MAD scenario you refer to in your final sentence, that gets us nowhere

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Re: Ukraine

Post by tamada » May 15, 2022, 3:07 pm

Feed the Ukraine war with all the very best, hi-tech kit to fight this proxy war to the cusp of Russian capitulation and the personal demise of Putin, whereupon the Ukrainians offer a cease fire which leads to a grand rapprochement with their vanquished Slavic brothers and sisters. Since the EU and NATO will still be sitting on their hands with regard to fast-tracking any memberships, the Ukraine decides on "the devil you know" and "the ties that bind" developed since the Soviet Union and CIS and absorb Russia into Ukrainy Mir. All this farm land, natural gas plus heaps of the very best of western military technology.

They are Ukrainians after all.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Earnest » May 15, 2022, 4:46 pm

You're saying the Ukrainians will do a deal with the Russians, Giggles?
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Re: Ukraine

Post by tamada » May 15, 2022, 5:00 pm

Earnest wrote:
May 15, 2022, 4:46 pm
You're saying the Ukrainians will do a deal with the Russians, Giggles?
Well, they are more like them than they are like say the Germans, no? Their corruption, deceit and penchant to play fast and loose with geopolitics has had a fair bit to do with why they're in their current pickle.

Plus I think the railway gauge is the same.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Earnest » May 15, 2022, 5:08 pm

And yet a majority of Ukrainians wish to join the EU and NATO. I'll need to ferret out some evidence to back my assertion up on that one, of course.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by tamada » May 15, 2022, 5:18 pm

Earnest wrote:
May 15, 2022, 5:08 pm
And yet a majority of Ukrainians wish to join the EU and NATO. I'll need to ferret out some evidence to back my assertion up on that one, of course.
Yes, that's what we're told their leaders say. Just happened in Finland and Sweden as well.

Strange.

I like ferrets.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Earnest » May 15, 2022, 5:31 pm

That's good.

Here's something from December 2021, although I suspect the numbers wishing to align themselves with the EU and NATO has increased in the light of Russian aggression.

https://www.iri.org/resources/iri-ukrai ... -covid-19/
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Re: Ukraine

Post by tamada » May 15, 2022, 5:44 pm

Earnest wrote:
May 15, 2022, 5:31 pm
That's good.

Here's something from December 2021, although I suspect the numbers wishing to align themselves with the EU and NATO has increased in the light of Russian aggression.

https://www.iri.org/resources/iri-ukrai ... -covid-19/
I agree that the numbers will have tilted significantly from December when it seems that winter heating costs were a big issue. I wonder what was the big issue for them way back in 2014?

Funny old world.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Earnest » May 15, 2022, 6:05 pm

Hey ho.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by AlexO » May 15, 2022, 6:54 pm

Earnest wrote:
May 15, 2022, 5:31 pm
That's good.

Here's something from December 2021, although I suspect the numbers wishing to align themselves with the EU and NATO has increased in the light of Russian aggression.

https://www.iri.org/resources/iri-ukrai ... -covid-19/
Come on Ernie tell us why they want to align themselves with the EU?
Old Ursula saying we will fast track Ukraine into the Dictatorship. Just what do they gain from that??
Its not a 'defence treaty' same as NATO.
Probably only real benefit will be you can borrow vast sums of money from us to rebuild your Nation but you must use German or French supplied materials. Plus vee will help you rearm as long as you buy our equipment (Greece a perfect example) . Absolute BS. Just another Franco-German ploy to keep the Russians as far from their borders as possible while milking the system.

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Re: Ukraine

Post by papafarang » May 16, 2022, 6:50 am

hey if everyone joined NATO there would be no need for a arms industry , we could leave the germans in charge
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Re: Ukraine

Post by GT93 » May 16, 2022, 7:33 am

The EU isn't a dictatorship and there are significant trade benefits being a member of the EU. British readers should know that. British political discourse seems to have been damaged by the Russian meddling in the Conservative Party. Putin will enjoy hearing the British still calling the EU a dictatorship.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by AlexO » May 16, 2022, 7:42 am

GT93 wrote:
May 16, 2022, 7:33 am
The EU isn't a dictatorship and there are significant trade benefits being a member of the EU. British readers should know that. British political discourse seems to have been damaged by the Russian meddling in the Conservative Party. Putin will enjoy hearing the British still calling the EU a dictatorship.
What "significant trade benefits" will there be when you are either occupied by foreign forces or your Country is in ruins and you have nothing to trade?

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Re: Ukraine

Post by FrazeeDK » May 16, 2022, 7:05 pm

well, Russia has had 200 billion in Foregien Exchange Reserves "frozen" all over the world. Ukraine should start their legal actions to grab that money while the Western World is in their conrder. That would get a start on the rebuilding..
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Re: Ukraine

Post by jackspratt » May 16, 2022, 8:03 pm

Hopefully Ukraine can look forward to next year's grain crops as something they can trade.

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Re: Ukraine

Post by glalt » May 16, 2022, 8:38 pm

Ukraine is a huge country. The huge fertile farm country is mostly unaffected. Farmers are still working. The biggest problem is that they cannot sell their crops. Soon there will be entire countries starving.

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