Why is'nt the pound getting stronger against the baht?

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Farang1
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Re: Why is'nt the pound getting stronger against the baht?

Post by Farang1 » May 21, 2010, 8:04 am

KHONDAHM wrote:Plain and simple: We are in the beginnings of a global currency crisis. All fiat money is crashing because Central Banks are printing way too much of it. There are dozens of historical precedents for what is going on and what WILL happen. None of which are being reported in the MSM.
KHONDAHM wrote:Inflation hits 5.3pc – no savings account pays any return

A surprise jump in inflation to 5.3 per cent means that not a single savings account on the market offers an interest rate higher than the cost of living.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/pers ... eturn.html

Meanwhile, gold reaches record highs priced in GBP. Seems a no-brainer.
OK. The governments keep printing money thinning out it's value. I have heard people warning about that for years. So, what do you do when it gets to where the money isn't worth the paper it printed on? Take an ounce of gold down to Big C to buy groceries?



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Re: Why is'nt the pound getting stronger against the baht?

Post by KHONDAHM » May 21, 2010, 11:42 am

Farang1 wrote: OK. The governments keep printing money thinning out it's value. I have heard people warning about that for years. So, what do you do when it gets to where the money isn't worth the paper it printed on? Take an ounce of gold down to Big C to buy groceries?
Perhaps if you wanted to stock up, but small purchases like that is what silver is for. Keep in mind that gold and silver are CURRENCY first and commodities second. Post-gold standard living has made most forget that fact as we merrily wrap our lives around pretty pieces of paper backed by an intangible promise. If you have a dollar laying around, it says so right on it.

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Re: Why is'nt the pound getting stronger against the baht?

Post by KHONDAHM » May 29, 2010, 9:49 pm

This short video sums up the currency crisis rather nicely. ENJOY! :lol:


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Re: Why is'nt the pound getting stronger against the baht?

Post by Philip101 » May 30, 2010, 3:05 am

okokokok

so, why dont the countrys STOP printing money????

by the way nice vid KHONDAM, intresting it doesnt mention britains defisit though,i would of thought that would be one of the first things he would say.

Also, why doesnt he mention americas debt??? Dont get me wrong america has a stronger economy but still

Alough the westion where on europe, that probably explains why

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Re: Why is'nt the pound getting stronger against the baht?

Post by KHONDAHM » May 30, 2010, 7:32 am

Here's the kicker: There really is only one way. The US, GB, etc. have to inflate their way out of debt by printing more and more money. They really, CAN'T stop.

So, the GBP (and Euro) will continue to fall. The USD will continue to see brief rallies as those fleeing those currencies run to the USD (the default reserve currency). Eventually, confidence in the USD will erode when the public realizes that over half of US states (led by California which would be the world's 5th largest economy if it were a country) are CURRENTLY worse off than Greece, but for now there is no other fiat currency that can absorb the flight from the Euro and GBP.

Eventually, people and institutions will HAVE to capitulate and seek safety in gold, the only real currency, which will make gold (when priced in other currencies) soar. In truth, there is no real "gain" if one saves in gold. An ounce of gold 100 years ago priced in USD would buy a really nice suit. An ounce of gold today priced in USD would buy a really nice suit.

So, what baffles me (and perhaps others), is why would people be smart enough to relocate to Thailand (where the yellow stuff is in abundance) to enjoy the fruits of living in a cheaper economy, but still be dumb enough to keep the bulk of their savings in GBP, USD, etc. when those currencies are clearly in a death spiral. Why not just capitulate now and beat the rush later.

I wish I had a megaphone: THERE IS NO CATALYST THAT COULD POSSIBLY REVERSE THE DEATH SPIRAL OF FIAT CURRENCIES. ALL THE WESTERN CURRENCIES ARE DOOMED TO HELL. However, I do understand the phases:

Shock - "OMG! The GBP is becoming worthless!"
Disbelief - "This can't be true. It's always been strong."
(False) Hope - "Something (but I don't know what) will make the exchange rate go back to 75:1. The Central Banks will put things right...somehow..."
Dispair - "It's not working, everything is getting more and more expensive. It's now 45:1 and my world is collapsing."
Capitulation: - "Hurray! Ever since I exchanged my GBP savings for gold, my savings haven't lost a satang or shilling in value! In fact, the gold I bought last year has increased enough in value (priced in THB) to offset GBP-->THB exchange rate losses suffered in previous years. By going with gold, the effective equivalent of the 75:1 days are here again!"

This is what capitulation actually looks like. Sam had learned his lesson during the Great Depression:

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Re: Why is'nt the pound getting stronger against the baht?

Post by wynnsiensheng » May 31, 2010, 11:49 am

I completely agree with the scenario and logic explained by you Khondahm. BUT, I do think you are wrong when you say there is no way out of the death spiral for currencies. It's seems to me that Greece has done all the other European countries a favour (just as the collapse of Lehman did all the other banks a favour) because it has caused those countries with high debt levels to realise the dangers with which they are flirting. This "there but for the grace of God go I" realisation has caused a number of European governments to start to rein in spending, in fact reduce it, so with just a little bit of ieflation and a little bit of growth added in, over a period of years, they will be able to repair their fiscal situation....emphasis on "a period of years".

I know, I know, less spending will reduce the potential for growth, because the private sector in most countries are not yet ready to take up any spending slack from the public sector, but reduced growth is the necessary pain that Europeans have to bear. It just means a full recovery will take even longer and my own view is that it was already going to be a minimum of a three year process, so maybe double that.

There are risks of course. Reduced public spending may not just reduce growth, it may eliminate it. Not good. Reduced growth may also result in civil unrest. Not good. We have to hope that the former can be finely enough judged to be avoided and that the European population will have a sense of true reality and realise times are economically tough and going to stay tough. Some will not, but hopefully enough people will know that now is a time for self restraint.

The real danger is in USD. The US government is doing nothing to rein in spending, in fact quite the opposite. Lucky for the US that their currency is the worlds reserve currency and hence there have a steady flow of funding from China, Japan etc. But the fiscal situation is actually appalling.

The trouble with gold, is that in a financial meltdown where the worlds major currencies become worthless, I can't eat it. Thai rice fields may be a better hedge against financial disaster!

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Re: Why is'nt the pound getting stronger against the baht?

Post by KHONDAHM » May 31, 2010, 1:30 pm

I am in agreement with your arguement. I do have a correction to my statement that there is no catalyst:

War.

War on a massive scale is the only catalyst I see that could realistically potentially solve the currency crisis. It is the only man-controlled event that destroys enough assets to stimulate enough production to solve most economic problems. Ironically, history shows us that were it not for war, man would be extinct. A profound thought worthy of consideration.

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Re: Why is'nt the pound getting stronger against the baht?

Post by jackspratt » May 31, 2010, 2:33 pm

KHONDAHM wrote:Ironically, history shows us that were it not for war, man would be extinct. A profound thought worthy of consideration.
Just leaving women I guess. :roll:

But slightly off topic. :D

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Re: Why is'nt the pound getting stronger against the baht?

Post by Aardvark » May 31, 2010, 3:35 pm

C'mon Jack, you can do better than that :roll:

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Re: Why is'nt the pound getting stronger against the baht?

Post by jackspratt » May 31, 2010, 10:41 pm

Just being cautious Aa. :D

Perhaps KD knows something that others don't - but a quick search of google throws up nothing to support his "interesting" hypothesis. :shock:

(Still off topic, BTW).

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Re: Why is'nt the pound getting stronger against the baht?

Post by KHONDAHM » June 1, 2010, 5:33 am

jackspratt wrote:Just being cautious Aa. :D

Perhaps KD knows something that others don't - but a quick search of google throws up nothing to support his "interesting" hypothesis. :shock:

(Still off topic, BTW).
No proof or reference required. The statement was purely contemplative.

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Why is'nt the pound getting stronger against the baht?

Post by valiant » February 21, 2012, 6:28 pm

Can anbody tell me how many Baht for 10 British pounds in the Banglok Bank coming over in March and want to know whether to bring Cash or Transfer thanks

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Why is'nt the pound getting stronger against the baht?

Post by Tafia » February 21, 2012, 10:25 pm

valiant wrote:Can anbody tell me how many Baht for 10 British pounds in the Banglok Bank coming over in March and want to know whether to bring Cash or Transfer thanks
Foreign Exchange Rates

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Why is'nt the pound getting stronger against the baht?

Post by rick » February 21, 2012, 10:28 pm

Well the rate varies day to day, but about 48 to the pound currently, so say 480 baht for 10 quid. in the last 3 months hasn't shifted more than 1 baht from that, always between 47.5 - 48.5. Some one will no doubt post that they have got better than this, but that is the LIKELY range.

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Why is'nt the pound getting stronger against the baht?

Post by Tafia » February 21, 2012, 10:39 pm

Tafia wrote:
valiant wrote:Can anbody tell me how many Baht for 10 British pounds in the Banglok Bank coming over in March and want to know whether to bring Cash or Transfer thanks
Foreign Exchange Rates
Sorry I couldn't post the link, check the BB Foreign exchange rates they change a number of times a day but as rick says its been pretty steady for some time with little movement between 47.5 and 48.8

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Why is'nt the pound getting stronger against the baht?

Post by valiant » February 22, 2012, 9:56 pm

Thanks for replies 46.9 Baht transferring from Nat West to Bangkok Bank it is cheaper bringing cash but not as safe.

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Why is'nt the pound getting stronger against the baht?

Post by old-timer » February 22, 2012, 11:57 pm

Quantitative-easing by the Bank of England is the reason the GBP will not make any improvement against the baht forever. Which suits OT so long as the QAR keeps strong.

OT..........selfish... \:D/

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Why is'nt the pound getting stronger against the baht?

Post by FCBasel1967 » February 23, 2012, 7:40 pm

The pound will only get weaker even against the weakest fiat currencies. Like the US, the UK-Ponzi-economy is deflating and there is nothing the criminal banking syndicate can do about it.

Current total UK debt (government + corporations + financial + household) to GDP ratio is 1000% (that is NOT a type-o it is roughly one thousand percent) which is higher than any other country in the world. To make things worse, most of the debt is external, i.e. owed to non-UK creditors. Now THIS looks unsustainable to me. BoE will have to print hundreds of billions more of their worthless paper in order to prevent an outright collapse of the current financial system. Inflation will be rampant and the whole UK middle class will be impoverished in the process. What we have seen last summer is nothing compared to what lies ahead in terms of social unrest and violence in the cities.

The English peso will lose more than 50% of its value in the next 2 years against the only real money - gold. I.e. the gold price in GBP will at least double.

Is the US in a better position? Hardly. Once the totally undeserved world reserve currency status of the USD is gone, nothing will stop it from falling like a stone.

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Why is'nt the pound getting stronger against the baht?

Post by rick » February 23, 2012, 8:17 pm

Cash may not be safe, but try travellers cheques. Sterling cheques can sometimes be bought without commission (Lloyds bank do this) and you get a slightly better rate in Udon than cash - but then pay commission about 0.5%. But better than the rate bank transfer offers. You can also transfer in Sterling and get converted in Thailand - usually cheaper than letting the UK bank take commission (but all depends on amount). I use TC when i travel here and subsequently a supposedly commision free ATM card - but that is another set of options in itself.

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Why is'nt the pound getting stronger against the baht?

Post by kumphawapi » February 24, 2012, 3:11 pm

I wouldn't write off the UK and the pound just yet. The UK economy is in better shape than the newspapers would have you believe. The government is trying to devalue the pound using quantitative easing (printing more money) but it is competition with other currencies doing the same. Quantitative easing is effectively a tax on all savings in the economy, and if the inflation can be kept under control is an effective way of writing off debt. However other currencies, such as the Thai Baht are in the same competition, and the UK pound is seen as a better bet than many other currencies by the International markets. The net result is that the relative position of the currencies doesn't change.
the Thai Baht also shows signs of being actively managed to keep it within a narrow band with the UK pound.

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