Is the Thai Goverment Broke

Post by **bumper** » February 1, 2014, 9:31 am

An oppinion section I read this morning said it was. I doubt that is the case.

But, they do appear to have their hands tied at the moment. Banks don't want to touch the rice scheme with a ten foot pole.

BOT suggested the sale the rice. But, can they do that as a intrem Government? Even if the election gets through, serious doubts that will happen, it would be months before they are up to speed again. The BOT has money, perhaps the working budget is exhausted,

You have the farmers and now TOT is running out of money

http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/tel ... ng-devices

Yamaha motorcycles expects defaults to sky rocket

http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/new ... -skyrocket

Post by **bumper** » February 1, 2014, 9:40 am

Thai Air Asia bypassing Bangkok

http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/avi ... ng-bangkok

Post by **jackspratt** » February 1, 2014, 10:30 am

bumper wrote:Thai Air Asia bypassing Bangkok

http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/avi ... ng-bangkok

Very misleading headline.

TAA is actually still flying to Bangkok - however it is not directly promoting Bangkok as a destination, rather other places in Thailand accessed via Bangkok eg Udon Thani etc.

Post by **ting_tong** » February 1, 2014, 10:32 am

dunno bumper, gotta remember usually everything in thailand is fake, and usually something bought new is broken or has something wrong with it............my rule of thumb.

Post by **bumper** » February 1, 2014, 11:17 am

Sorry Jack, must have miss read it.

I don't trust the Thai news. It's as much politically motivated as anything else. I try to research international news. The point was if things were resolved today. Lots of problems in the financial arena still need to be resolved. The push from the former Government was for domestic consumption. That I believe has been derailed for at a least a year at best. Based on the road construction in our area, some was already in progress. Only a small section of road between Udon and Nong Sai is finished.

I don't think this rice thing has endeared Phua Thai and the farmers that haven't been paid as of yet. The rice scheme may have went to far my country actually pays farmers not to grow certain crops in an effort to keep the prices up where there is a glutt.

I normally equate these things to the Baht and the SET. Just looking a little further into it now. BOT says it has a ton of foreign currency, maybe. But. I have never really seen that confirmed by an outside source. So far I have not seen it listed to countries like India for example. So someone must believe they have it. I just hope they didn't ask the F.M. who said i was OK to lie.

One thing for sure, it has had at least an effect on the economy. With no end in sight.

The reason this interests me I'm waiting to go back into the SET.

So far the SET and Baht has weathered this very well.

Misleading news, read an article in the POST today saying that the baht was knocked down because of the protests. That simply is not true it was hit by the FED doing more taporing like every other country in the region. I don't believe we have really seen the effects of the protests yet.

Depending on the violence we may get a hint on Monday. My target is 1200 and I think it will do that eventually. The pattern thus far is the SET takes a hit then recovers the next day. Got to be a reason for that, I don't know what it is. Other then the shadow economy that Parrot had talked about.

The BOT has done a good job of controlling the baht thus far.

We already know who will win the election, maybe that will create some way for the Government to keep the economy going. That one is up in the air. But eventually it will become crucial.

I need to ride by the REPO yard here in Udon and see if there looks like more vehicles are there now then the last time I checked. That one is operated by Krungsi bank, so there are others I don't know where they are located. Anyway looking for a vehicle might be a way to go. You have to post 10K to bid, if you get one it goes to the purchase price. If you don't get a vehicle they return the deposit. This could result in some excellent buys in this and property.

The government not being able to support it's programs should have an effect, how far it will go I don't know.

How about that wasn't my mistake, that's different here is the meat.

TAA is promoting its Fly-Thru service via Bangkok's Don Mueang airport to other Thai locations, with passengers' baggage checked through to their final destinations. Chief executive Tassapon Bijleveld...

Please credit and share this article with others using this link:http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/avi ... ng-bangkok. View our policies at http://goo.gl/9HgTd and http://goo.gl/ou6Ip. © Post Publishing PCL. All rights reserved.

Anyway open to discussion

Post by **bumper** » February 1, 2014, 12:41 pm

interesting article to point.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-3 ... ofits.html

BOT may reduce growth forecast again

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/breakin ... 25714.html

I know that this won't interest those who only worry about the cost of beer and women. If you happen to fall in that category here this is not worth a read. If you have actually have made a home here, might be worth following.

Post by **bumper** » February 1, 2014, 3:07 pm

Tat predicts 40 billion loss, Really looking like a tough year ahead for Thailand.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews ... b40bn-loss

Post by **KHONDAHM** » February 1, 2014, 3:10 pm

Well, if Thailand isn't yet broke, it is well on the way.

Thaksin was wise to pay off the IMF loan during his first term. During his administration, GDP per citizen doubled. Then he was booted and when the opposition usurped power, they promptly put the country back in debt and raided the cookie jar. Now part of the current fight is about who is going to control the Trillion baht loan...

Stay tuned...

Post by **parrot** » February 1, 2014, 3:25 pm

bumper : "I need to ride by the REPO yard here in Udon and see if there looks like more vehicles are there now then the last time I checked. That one is operated by Krungsi bank, so there are others I don't know where they are located. Anyway looking for a vehicle might be a way to go. You have to post 10K to bid, if you get one it goes to the purchase price. If you don't get a vehicle they return the deposit. This could result in some excellent buys in this and property."

There was a vehicle auction at Ngeesoon (Nadee) a few days ago. I toured the vehicles on display.....all spruced up for sale.......but can't help but wonder what ills might lurk below the hood or chassis. I've seen too many red-plated delivery trucks, overloaded with bags of cement, veggies, or water racing around town with non-owner drivers who could care less about the vehicle. No doubt, some of those vehicles go through a few hundred Baht of fine detailing and look all shiny and new at auction. I'm sure there are deals to be had out there......but I'll leave that to people with mechanical backgrounds to find out.

Post by **bumper** » February 1, 2014, 4:14 pm

I need one just thought I would pass it on.

Post by **KHONDAHM** » February 1, 2014, 11:33 pm

Careful at those auto auctions...the flood was not all that long ago...

Post by **bumper** » February 2, 2014, 8:18 am

I read an article yesterday where three major hedge funds are investing in Thailand. either they are thinking very long term or they don't understand the depth of this devide in society. Sorry couldn't find the articles today.

Nor to they seem to understand that Thailand is already holding a lot of debt, 97 bailout was just transferred to the BOT's books, it still hasn't been paid.

Post by **FrazeeDK** » February 2, 2014, 8:30 am

no the IMF was paid back.. What went on to the BOT's books were all the failed loans that the government had to eat back then.. Billions of baht of loans made on shaky or phony collateral by "influential" people and businesses..

Post by **bumper** » February 2, 2014, 10:10 am

Actually I was thinking of the U.S. portion, was that paid back?

Well so far the BOT has kept the baht within a very tight range. It was surprising to me that the FED move seem to effect it more then the violence. But, today may show create something different. It would seem that no matte the voting results this is not over and we have at least a good six months, if not a year before we could have an effective Government.

It's real catch 22 Phua Thai wins, which it will in numbers. PRDC stays on the streets, Red shirt elements are not going to be happy about that. More then likely leading to more violence. PDRC ha already prepared a case for the Constutional Court to declare the election invalid.

Yingluk may have made a big mistake disolving Parliment, the care taker Government is very limited in what it can do. Under the current situation the banks are not interested in buying rice pledging bonds. The simple answer offered by the BOT sale the rice they have deal with China now. I wonder a a care taker government they can do that.

If they can sale that rice then they are stupid not to do it. Give the farmers their money. This will bleed over to the real economy and already has if your one of those rice farmers, hotel owner in Bangkok, travel agency. Since the goal for the Phua Thai was to grow the economy domestically. Been a big wrench thrown in the works.

Another out come would be the DSI to connect Yingluk to the fraud in the rice scheme, if they do she is out. Red Shirts are not going to be happy about that either.

As far a investing is concerned I don't believe I have seen so many wild cards since I have been here. I still hold shares in KBS and so far in the black, But we are only talking about 15 K, it pays dividends gives an off set till the mess is resolved.

The first time I went in the SET was in the 600 range, it was hard to make mistake everything was paying. I have no desire to consider investing again until it goes below 1200 at least.

As Buffet says when others run time to go in. In this case the running may last up to a year. The other thing he says is don't buy junk and buy at basement prices.

So where is the basement I don't know. even if the Government has money it doesn't appear they can spend it. What I see is a lot rob Peter to pay Paul. The rake off the top may be very heavy at the moment. Individual peoples money is being seized for being unusually rich. Uncle Taks has already sold his shares in AIS. INTUCH : SHIN CORPORATION PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED is a stock to watch the family has money in that one still.

If the family does a sale of to get of dodge, it will really hurt, These people don't play with chump change.

I see a tough year ahead for Thailand will it go to the 97 mess again. At this point anything is possible

Post by **bumper** » February 2, 2014, 10:29 am

Thought I would take a look at INTUCH myself, six months ago it was trading at 90.25 today 70.75

That is a solid Company with good dividends as I said worth watching. The SET has not dropped that much as of yet. That looks unusual to me.

It's a communication company Advanc is another I will check that one ad see how it has westhered.

Post by **bumper** » February 2, 2014, 11:38 am

If you want a good feel for what is going on I really recommend signing up for the Thai Capitalist

Pon says no repeat on 1997.

http://thaicapitalist.com/

This was posted by someone else some time back, free worth a try if you want a different view other then the news papers

Post by **bumper** » February 3, 2014, 9:31 am

If this follows it's norm as it has done in the past the SET will bounce back today,

SET sinks on China health, Fed taper, political woes

http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/fin ... tical-woes

Post by **bumper** » February 3, 2014, 9:58 am

The rice deal is weighing heavy on Thailand it would seem the smart thing to do would be to sale the stuff move on and limit the loss. It's not property it will spoil.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/new ... en-harvest

Post by **maxeboy** » February 3, 2014, 12:35 pm

You are absolutely right but this will be loosing face in a disastrous way.

Kind regards from

maxeboy

Post by **thrilled** » February 4, 2014, 4:21 am

It seems like Thailand copies the U.S.in many ways.as far as the debt look 17 trillion dollars.Thats probably not the real number.Thailand has been borrowing a lot more than it should.