USD prognosis post new tax cuts - poor

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Re: USD prognosis post new tax cuts - poor

Post by JimboPSM » December 16, 2018, 5:49 pm

In order to help demonstrate why the prognosis for the USD is poor it is quite informative to look back at the last time an economically illiterate tax package was passed.

As there is currently considerable concern about changes relating to visa income and deposit, I thought a chart showing how the cost of 800,000 Baht has changed in USD since 2001 would make for an interesting starting point.

What should really make people sit up and take note from this chart is the impact of the Bush 43 tax cuts on the USD/THB rate from 2001 to 2008 – it should be noted that this movement was not specific to the USD/THB rate, it broadly reflected the movement of the US Dollar Index over the same period of time.

The Bush tax cuts (and other economic illiteracy) increased the average annual cost of 800,000 THB from 18,067 USD in 2001 to 24,139 USD in 2008, an increase of 25.15%. :shock:

It is a lesson from history that far too many, despite all the evidence that history has provided, are wilfully ignoring. :(

  • USD Visa cost 2018.jpg

Bearing in mind the impact of the Bush 43 tax cuts shown above, members with an income from a USD asset base (social security, investments etc) should be deeply concerned about the long term impact that the latest tax cuts package (which became operational on 1st January 2018) will have on the USD/THB rate.

While the details are quite different, broadly speaking, the latest tax cuts package was constructed (as with the Bush 43 tax cuts) to benefit major US Corporates, Wall Street and the 0.1% and the overall impact on the US economy will be similar in nature – the tax cuts package has set a marked fall in the value of the USD in tablets of stone.

Any illusions that the impact of the latest tax cuts package would be different to the impact of the Bush 43 tax cuts should have been quickly dispelled once it became obvious that after the tax cuts package was passed, behaviourally, nothing has materially changed with the Corporates, with Wall Street and with the 0.1% since the Bush 43 years - overwhelmingly they looked after themselves with stock buy backs etc while doing precious little for jobs and employees.

Confirmation that the benefits were overwhelmingly going to corporates, Wall Street and the 0.1% can easily be deduced from the absence of the tax cuts package from the 2018 GOP midterm election propaganda :shock:

The chart below of the annual average USD/THB rate shows the actual movement from 2001 to date and a projection that (ceteris paribus) shows the probable impact of the latest tax cuts package.

My projection is based on the impact of the tax package on the annual US budget deficit, US long term debt and the financing costs of that deficit/debt – while it’s not exactly rocket science for those who are willing to learn the lessons of history it may be a major struggle for those with wilfull or highly selective amnesia.

Should my projection prove to be correct, the cost of 800,000 Baht by 2024 at a USD/THB rate of 25 will have risen to 32,000 USD.

  • Annual USD-THB 2001-2024A.jpg

One possible mitigating factor I have not included in the projection of the USD/THB rate is the possibility of a fall in the international value of the THB, this is for two main reasons:

1. Every prediction in recent years of a material fall in the THB has proved to be grossly exagerated.
2. I doubt that the combined intellects of Isaac Newton and John Maynard Keynes would have been able to produce a theory of gravitational economics which could encompass the gravity defying properties of the THB (and I am way out of their league).


Nut warning: Please note that the contents above contain actual facts and projections based on factual history which may not be suitable for the kind of nuts on UM that are afflicted with severe repetitive factual digestion problems.

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Re: USD prognosis post new tax cuts - poor

Post by Giggle » December 17, 2018, 3:10 am

If you think the US economy is organized around a handful of retired expats' $25K in Thai banks for immigration purposes, you've lost the plot. Have you tried stand-up comedy?

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Re: USD prognosis post new tax cuts - poor

Post by Giggle » December 18, 2018, 1:09 am

scum 45? Another clever little petty loser Brit. I hope the pound bombs it when you sad-sacks go it alone.

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Re: USD prognosis post new tax cuts - poor

Post by pipoz4444 » December 19, 2018, 3:27 pm

pipoz4444 wrote:
December 16, 2017, 2:32 pm
US Economic Analysis - and I am not an Economist nor am I a Banker, nor do I work for the US Fed. But I will add some diatribe/harangue/polemic, to the conversation and people are free to pull it apart, if they wish....................

A lower US Dollar Index is good news for the US and should promote opportunities for the Exports and hence US Economy overall (i.e. good news for those in the Workforce).

US Exchange Rate Prognosis for Thai Baht: Back to the point of the Prognosis for exchange rate of the US to the Thai Baht, it doesn’t affect most people and it doesn’t relate to Trump in the White house as some suggest. Movement in exchange rates are driven by the two Countries and their respective circumstances and I seriously doubt that anyone can believe that the USD to Thai Baht Exchange rate will ever return to TB 25.0, of some 20 years ago (1997), before the Asian Crisis.

Over the past 8 years the USD to Thai Baht Exchange Rate was below TB 32.5 to the US nearly 4 ½ of those years (a long stint from April 2010 through April 2015). Then in April 2015 the rate moved up, very suddenly over a relatively short period of time and not because of anything that Obama did or didn’t do. ..............................

Should Members be concerned that the USD to Thai Baht Exchange Rate will return to TB 25.0, due to Trump being President or the likelihood of the US Tax Cuts happening, - the sensible answer is, NO. Forecast USD to Thai Baht Exchange Rate: Where or what will be the USD to Thai Baht Exchange Rate in June 2018. Very simple, I will update my post on 01 July 2018 [-o< :-k

Merry Christmas “Snow Flakes” [-o< \:D/ :confused:

pipoz4444
Just over one year on after my Blather above and guess what the exchange rate to the US dollar is pretty much the same

20 December 2017 USD to TB was 32.711 (according to the EX Currency Exchange Rate at close)
20 December 2018 USD to TB was 32.693 (according to the EX Currency Exchange Rate at close)

In the past 365 days it was below TB 32.5 for 45% of that time (164 Days), but more importantly in the past six months it has only been below TB 32.5 for some 13 days. Not bad

Al lot has transpired with the US economy over this past year and the Dollar Index has moved from 93.32 around 18 Dec 2017, downward in the first part of Year 2018 and then slowly back up to 96.82 today. Despite an increase of nearly 4% in the Dollar Index, the exchange Rate for that Thai Baht to USD has remained quite resilient/steady.

My take on it is that the USD to TB Exchange rate will remain between 32.5 and 33.0 for at least the next six months, depending on whether this is a political change in Thailand in this next six month period.

Will the TB ever drop back into the low 31’s, it highly unlikely that it will ever strengthen like it did back in 2011, 2012 & 2013. The TB is not going South for a long time, in my view.

If one was considering moving larger amounts of USD to Thailand, I would wait for 6 plus months, rather than do it earlier, as you might just get just get 33.00 plus to the USD in the first half of next year. :-k =; \:D/

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Re: USD prognosis post new tax cuts - poor

Post by Lone Star » December 20, 2018, 10:55 am

pipoz4444 wrote:
December 19, 2018, 3:27 pm

Just over one year on after my Blather above and guess what the exchange rate to the US dollar is pretty much the same

20 December 2017 USD to TB was 32.711 (according to the EX Currency Exchange Rate at close)
20 December 2018 USD to TB was 32.693 (according to the EX Currency Exchange Rate at close)

In the past 365 days it was below TB 32.5 for 45% of that time (164 Days), but more importantly in the past six months it has only been below TB 32.5 for some 13 days. Not bad

...
Yes, I went back and looked at the USD rates when another dire prediction was forecast. Image

Virtually no change in the USD-THB exchange over a year. But I've said all along, we can't control it, so I don't watch it. It's foolish to agonize over anything with which one has no control.

I also remember all the nuclear wars and the US economy going to hell -- because of Trump, of course. Image

As has been cited on other threads, there's a disconnect between the stock market and the economy because Trump has disconnected the US economy from the globalists with his "America First" doctrine. Even the IMF acknowledges this disconnect and the fact that the US economy is still on the rise, and other world economies are in decline or flat.

I'm not posting it all again. Here's the video of the IMF chief. Catch up on your own.



And because there is disconnect between the US and the globalists, I don't believe that GWB's globalist doctrine can be compared to Trump's MAGAnomics. We can all predict, can't we?
Image
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Re: USD prognosis post new tax cuts - poor

Post by pipoz4444 » December 20, 2018, 12:14 pm

[/quote]

Yes, I went back and looked at the USD rates when another dire prediction was forecast. Image

Virtually no change in the USD-THB exchange over a year. But I've said all along, we can't control it, so I don't watch it. It's foolish to agonize over anything with which one has no control.

I also remember all the nuclear wars and the US economy going to hell -- because of Trump, of course. Image

As has been cited on other threads, there's a disconnect between the stock market and the economy because Trump has disconnected the US economy from the globalists with his "America First" doctrine. Even the IMF acknowledges this disconnect and the fact that the US economy is still on the rise, and other world economies are in decline or flat.

I'm not posting it all again. Here's the video of the IMF chief. Catch up on your own.

And because there is disconnect between the US and the globalists, I don't believe that GWB's globalist doctrine can be compared to Trump's MAGAnomics. We can all predict, can't we?
Image
[/quote]

Agree there is a disconnect between the Stock Market values and the US Economy performance. The Stock Market (Wall Street) no longer reflects the true value of Companies when they once paid dividends, as a way of showing/expressing their Company worth. Much of Wall Street is speculative, short term selling and traders effectively betting on when and where those share prices will move/change.So yes, to a degree the up and down roller coaster of the share prices and or the Indices such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average etc, does not directly correlate to what is happening within the US Economy.

My interest in the exchange rate is simply because I am Dollar dependent at this time, being paid in USD and within the next six months, have to decide in which currency and where certain Funds are to be kept. Be it either Off Shore in USD or to move it all into TB. Hence the interest in what value the exchange rate might be when the time comes.

As for the IMF Chief, Christine Lagarde, you wouldn't believe a word she said. Firstly she is an Ex Lawyer and secondly she has a history going back to 2011 re Bernard Tapie and should be behind bars.She is part of the corrupt EU system and only her Political friends saved her.

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Re: USD prognosis post new tax cuts - poor

Post by Lone Star » December 20, 2018, 1:36 pm

pipoz4444 wrote:
December 20, 2018, 12:14 pm

...

My interest in the exchange rate is simply because I am Dollar dependent at this time, being paid in USD and within the next six months, have to decide in which currency and where certain Funds are to be kept. Be it either Off Shore in USD or to move it all into TB. Hence the interest in what value the exchange rate might be when the time comes.

As for the IMF Chief, Christine Lagarde, you wouldn't believe a word she said. Firstly she is an Ex Lawyer and secondly she has a history going back to 2011 re Bernard Tapie and should be behind bars.She is part of the corrupt EU system and only her Political friends saved her.

pipoz4444
I don't blame you for watching the exchange rate based on your situation. When I was moving large amounts of money in my early years here, I watched it for the same reasons you do. I'm not at that point anymore, so I rarely look at it.

You're right about the IMF chief Lagarde, but even a blind squirrel finds an acorn now and then. :)
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Re: USD prognosis post new tax cuts - poor

Post by pipoz4444 » December 20, 2018, 2:23 pm

[/quote]

I don't blame you for watching the exchange rate based on your situation. When I was moving large amounts of money in my early years here, I watched it for the same reasons you do. I'm not at that point anymore, so I rarely look at it.

You're right about the IMF chief Lagarde, but even a blind squirrel finds an acorn now and then. :)
[/quote]

I am in my final stages, targeting 161 days to go, before I put my feet up. It feels like I am coming up for a "Parole Hearing" :-" \:D/

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Re: USD prognosis post new tax cuts - poor

Post by glalt » December 20, 2018, 3:35 pm

JimboPSM wrote:
December 14, 2017, 3:02 pm
Although it comes from a different perspective, this is an extract from an analysis/prognosis for the USD from Bloomberg that provides further food for thought:
Traders See No End to the Dollar’s Pain in 2018
By Lananh Nguyen ‎12‎ ‎December‎ ‎2017‎ ‎23‎:‎00 Updated on ‎13‎ ‎December‎ ‎2017‎ ‎20‎:‎05

For the almighty dollar, 2017 has been nothing short of abysmal. Next year might be even worse.

Despite a recent bounce back, analysts and investors say the greenback could lose more ground against the euro and yen as the prospect of strong economic growth and tighter monetary policy outside the U.S. more than offsets higher interest rates at home. The dollar is down more than 7 percent versus the world’s major currencies this year, the most in over a decade.

The economic growth “we’re seeing in Europe, emerging markets and the rest of the world will likely cause the dollar to sell off again,” said Erin Browne, the head of asset allocation at UBS Asset Management, which oversees about $770 billion. When it comes to what central banks in Europe and Japan might do, “there’s very little priced in.”........

........ Of course, even dollar bears acknowledge there’s a good chance that Trump’s tax cuts could give the greenback a fillip in the first half of the new year. But few see it lasting into the second half -- even if the Fed keeps raising rates.

Analysts see the greenback losing ground to 13 of the world’s 16 most-widely traded currencies through the end of next year........

Full article: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... in-in-2018
I don't believe anything the "experts" say. I moved to Thailand in 1991 and the dollar baht exchange rate was 25 baht to the dollar. It stayed there until the Thai economy crashed around 1996 -1997. At over 32 to a dollar, I'm still ahead. I'm also of the opinion that the US stock market is no place for little guys to invest.I cashed out my 401K over a year ago and own no stocks. My overpriced accounting firm thought I was crazy. I fired them and no longer have to pay them. My money is split between a Thai bank and a US bank. It earns nearly nothing but I know how much I have and can get it any time. I see Trump squashing socialist programs and I am grateful for that. I also think the great socialist experiment called the EU is doomed. So far the best thing Trump has done is create many new jobs. Whether adding new taxpayers and lowering taxes will increase the national debt remains to be seen. It certainly boosted the stagnant Obama economy. Many things also need to be addressed but with the socialist democrats, that will be a struggle. Welfare, Social Security disability fraud and many other huge pork barrel project cuts would also reduce the deficit. There are lots of things that can be eliminated and at least drastically cut back. Our huge mostly useless government need downsized.

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Re: USD prognosis post new tax cuts - poor

Post by Giggle » December 20, 2018, 4:29 pm

Agree completely glalt. Have you considered mutual funds? You don't need to pay for do-nothing advisers and your funds can be diversified as far as you choose -- even within a single no-load fund. Splitting your investments between baht and dollars is a great move. Allows you to sleep at night because your bottom line never changes.

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Re: USD prognosis post new tax cuts - poor

Post by Giggle » December 20, 2018, 6:31 pm

I would also suggest "laddering" certificates of deposit. Every month put $1000 into a 1-year CD. In 12 months you'll have a thousand bucks no farther than 30 days out, at your instant disposal -- with no penalty. Make it 2 or 3 thousand if you're old. Readily accessible cash is better for the older folks. Credit unions in the US offer up to 3% for a 1-year CD. You won't find those rates in Thailand at the moment, but five years ago, Thai CD rates outperformed those in the US, so keep informed. A few percentage points can mean a lot.

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Re: USD prognosis post new tax cuts - poor

Post by sometimewoodworker » December 20, 2018, 6:43 pm

glalt wrote:
December 20, 2018, 3:35 pm

So far the best thing Trump has done is create many new jobs. Whether adding new taxpayers and lowering taxes will increase the national debt remains to be seen. It certainly boosted the stagnant Obama economy.
You do like to repeat utter tosh, you should not believe FOX propaganda and look at real numbers.

Trump has kept the growth momentum Obama saw during his terms, an a growth rate of an average 2+% is hardly stagnant. He has also maintained the drop in the unemployment rate which peaked after the crash at 9.6% and fell every year after that, down to 4.4% in 2017 so he's going to have a very tough time maintaining the Obama momentum. In the second term of Obama new non farming jobs were 217,000 per month during Trumps period it is 189,000 jobs per month. So nothing big just about keeping up, certainly not "many new jobs".

There is no wait and see and no doubt about Trump increasing the national debt in 2018 he will increase it by $1.233 trillion, with virtually identical increases projected in 2019, 2020 & 2021

And the stock market is nothing special either
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Re: USD prognosis post new tax cuts - poor

Post by Lone Star » December 20, 2018, 8:29 pm

Giggle wrote:
December 20, 2018, 4:29 pm
Agree completely glalt. Have you considered mutual funds? You don't need to pay for do-nothing advisers and your funds can be diversified as far as you choose -- even within a single no-load fund. Splitting your investments between baht and dollars is a great move. Allows you to sleep at night because your bottom line never changes.
Vanguard. I've had mutual funds with them for years.

And you're correct about the greatly reduced risk and no-load status.
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Re: USD prognosis post new tax cuts - poor

Post by Giggle » May 2, 2019, 9:14 pm

North of 32.

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Re: USD prognosis post new tax cuts - poor

Post by Lone Star » June 30, 2019, 6:38 am

Revisiting another failed prediction BECAUSE TRUMP.

Eighteen months have passed. Pretty stable. Certainly not close to the prediction of 25 to $1.
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Re: USD prognosis post new tax cuts - poor

Post by Giggle » June 30, 2019, 8:35 am

Just click your heels together three times...

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Re: USD prognosis post new tax cuts - poor

Post by JimboPSM » June 30, 2019, 12:50 pm

The USD/THB rate is currently on track for 25 due, in no small part, to the economically illiterate tax cuts package of Scum 45 and his Kakistocracy.

It should come as no surprise to those who are not wilfully ignorant and/or cognitively challenged that the USD/THB rate is performing in a similar vein to the way it performed the last time (under Bush 43) that there was a similarly economically illiterate tax cuts package (see chart for comparison).

  • USD/THB chart showing impact of economically illiterate tax cut packages
    2001 annual USD-THB 2019.06.30.jpg
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Re: USD prognosis post new tax cuts - poor

Post by pipoz4444 » July 1, 2019, 12:26 am

A little bit off Topic, but,

The Thai Baht to USD was once actually at its lowest, between 03 Nov 2010 (when at 29.64) and 22 April 2013 (when at 28.64) in the past 10 years, according to the historical data of the XE Currency Chart.

Prior to this, the previous low (when under 30.00) was back bewteen July 2007 and December 2007, when it managed to get down to 29.72 to the USD. However, it didn't get into the 28's

Other than those two periods above, the Thai Baht to USD has managed to stay above 30.00 to the USD threshold, for the majority of the time, during these past 14 years (i.e. since March 2005) according to the poundsterlinglive chart.

I can't see anything in the two currency charts below, that would suggest the Thai Baht will ever make it down to 25.00 to the USD and there have been a lot of torrid events over the past 14 years. Maybe on a very very bad day, it might crawl back to 29.00, but to reach 25.00, would require something very catastrophic or abnormal to happen, given its performance track record during the past 14 years.

Not to mention that, the Thai economy would most likely start to implode, if the Thai Baht to USD went below 28.00, overseas business investment would dry up, the propert market would grind to a halt (all the Chinese buyers would abandon ship) and the bars girls would have to lower their prices to get customers or worst still, give 2 BJ's a day to make ends meet. :-k :-k =D>

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from ... B&view=10Y
\
https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/bank- ... USD-to-THB

Just my two cents worth

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Last edited by pipoz4444 on July 1, 2019, 12:16 pm, edited 5 times in total.

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Re: USD prognosis post new tax cuts - poor

Post by Lone Star » July 1, 2019, 6:21 am

pipoz4444 wrote:
July 1, 2019, 12:26 am
A little bit off Topic, but,

The Thai Baht to USD was once actually at its lowest, between 03 Nov 2010 (when at 29.64) and 22 April 2013 (when at 28.64) in the past 10 years, according to the historical data of the XE Currency Chart.

Prior to this, the previous low (when under 30.00) was back bewteen July 2007 and December 2007, when it managed to get down to 29.72 to the USD. However, it didn't get into the 28's

Other than those two periods above, the Thai Baht to USD has managed to stay above 30.00 to the USD threshold, for the majority of the time, during these past 14 years (i.e. since Marc 2005) according to the poundsterlinglive chart.

I can't see anything in the two currency charts below, that would suggest the Thai Baht will ever make it down to 25.00 to the USD and there have been a lot of torrid events over the past 14 years. Maybe on a very very bad day, it might crawl back to 29.00, but to reach 25.00, would require something very catastrophic or abnormal to happen, given its performance track record during the past 14 years.

Not to mention that, the Thai economy would most likely start to impload, if the Thai Baht to USD went below 28.00, overseas business investment would dry up, the propert market would grind to a halt (all the Chinese buyers would abandon ship) and the bars girls would have to lower their prices to get customers or worst still, give 2 BJ's a day to make ends meet. :-k :-k =D>

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from ... B&view=10Y
\
https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/bank- ... USD-to-THB

Just my two cents worth

pipoz4444
Yeah, I noticed that too.

If someone wanted others to take them and their predictions seriously, they'd leave their obvious political bias out of it -- especially with a prediction that isn't even grounded in historical numbers like you pointed out.

All looks like more wishcasting from another member of the CBoS.
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Re: USD prognosis post new tax cuts - poor

Post by semperfiguy » July 1, 2019, 8:15 am

Yeah, I noticed that too.

If someone wanted others to take them and their predictions seriously, they'd leave their obvious political bias out of it -- especially with a prediction that isn't even grounded in historical numbers like you pointed out.

All looks like more wishcasting from another member of the CBoS.
[/quote]

Have to agree with you 100% Lone Star. I used to be amazed to read JimboSM's research and predictions, but after his slamming President Trump at every turn I lost all respect for him and just refuse to read him anymore. Reminds me of idiot corporations like Starbucks or Hollywood celebs like DeNiro that went public with their political stances and alienated half of their customer base. Sheer stupidity!
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