Dollar lets give the baht a rest

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BKKSTAN
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Post by BKKSTAN » June 6, 2008, 11:10 am

aznyron wrote:well it amazing oil man becomes President in Jan 2001 and oil go to 124 bucks a barrel
& the USD drops in value and they call me the conspiracy theorist
I just don't buy in to the thai baht being that strong compared to the USD no matter how much weaker it got
that my opinion and I stand by it 100 %
Ronnie,do you believe that oil would be as high priced,today,if we had built more refineries and drilled for more oil?



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Post by aznyron » June 6, 2008, 11:39 am

stan I agree with drilling for oil in both oceans & the gulf if you read my past post I said if we did like Brazil did who is independent of OPEC just maybe we could be also independent of OPEC
Bump I was quoting Jimbo_________ Jimbo I am not looking for supporters I know who they are
I also know who is not one of my supporters
Jimb I also agree with many who do not support my post just look at what Rico posted & I agreed with him on some issues I also said I liked Ann Coulter which I am sure surprised some of you right wingers I also said I am not a liberal & I am not a conservative I like to call my self a moderate or independent I am a supporter of capitalism but I also know some practice greed under the flag of capitalism

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Post by BKKSTAN » June 6, 2008, 11:49 am

:D I am happy,today, to see the baht rise above 33 versus the USD! =D>

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Post by RALPHCUSENS » June 6, 2008, 11:58 am

BKKSTAN wrote::D I am happy,today, to see the baht rise above 33 versus the USD! =D>
Yes Stan, looks good, but for how long, just seen on the news, that crude has today risen to more than $128 again, the biggest rise in one day in history!!! :cry:

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Post by Bump » June 6, 2008, 12:53 pm

How long who knows only time will tell that 32.76 at the Atm about two hours ago.

Ron thanks, but you just seem so unhappy with the Thai Governement in this.

Maybe there is an easy answer for you, the Lao Kip is tradng at 8,680 to the dollar an hour way easy move. People are nice, not far to Nong Khia of yuo have to have a Lotus fix and a good Cheese Burger plenty of French resturants around.

If I were that unhappy here and couldn't relocate back to the states I would consider it. But thats just me.

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Post by aznyron » June 6, 2008, 8:09 pm

bump I am looking at vietnam but my bride does not want to go but she will go to the USA if I offered you know Bump I am not that unhappy I am just pissed at the exchange rate and that what was bugging since it was 36 to 1 My story is I do not believe the baht warrants 32.75 as of now to 1 USD and you don't have to agree with me we are both adults and I can handle it if one does not support my opinion It also amazing that the Vietnam dong has not changed very much in 5 years in fact you get more now for the USD than you did 5 years ago when the dollar was stronger against the thai baht I heard so many stories & excuses why the USD is down against the Thai baht but David from amida some it all up for all the posters to read it a scam and I said 1 1/2 year ago

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Post by Bump » June 6, 2008, 8:19 pm

Well it just took a big hit with Euro, That and the yen I think would be the ones to watch for trends. That was because of the jobs report and interest rates. So now lets see what happen with baht.

It's so funny we have house guests from Laos, plan on taking them to night market get together tomorrow. One is a college student and speak great english In al honesty Lao would be my second choice over thailand. It's just the people there. It is in fact cheaper the Thailand but really doesn't have amenties that Thailand offers like UBC and english movies.

Funny isn't it for me America would be my last choice, nothing wrong with it just have never forgotten why I left.

Oil is already going up again, I'm sorry to say.

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Post by JimboPSM » June 7, 2008, 8:50 am

From Bloomberg (THB content only):
Asian Currencies Decline on Week, Led by Thailand's Baht....

By Aaron Pan and Shanthy Nambiar

June 6 (Bloomberg) -- Asian currencies declined this week, led by Thailand's baht and the Philippine peso, on concern rising oil prices will widen the region's trade deficit and fuel inflation.

The baht had its biggest weekly loss in three months as Bank of Thailand assistant governor Suchada Kirakul on June 3 said the central bank acted to curb excessive moves in the currency, without saying whether it bought or sold dollars. The peso had an eighth weekly decline after crude oil advanced more than $5 a barrel yesterday. All but one of the most-traded Asian currencies outside of Japan fell this week.

``The Bank of Thailand is grappling with a weakening baht,'' said Suresh Kumar Ramanathan, a rates and currency strategist at CIMB Investment Bank Bhd. in Kuala Lumpur. ``A lot of energy-related companies are buying dollars and hedging their positions on the back of rising crude prices, and that's exerting pressure on the baht.''

The baht fell 1.9 percent this week to 33.13 a dollar as of 4:30 p.m. in Bangkok, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The currency will trade between 32.50 and 32.95 next week, CIMB Investment's Suresh said.

The baht has declined 5 percent this quarter, the third- worst performance among Asia's 10 most-active currencies, as investors sold stocks and fuel importers bought dollars..............


To contact the reporters on this story: Aaron Pan in Hong Kong at apan8@bloomberg.net; Shanthy Nambiar in Bangkok at snambiar1@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: June 6, 2008 05:55 EDT
  • As a side note, there has been an unusually long run for the USD where it has actually closed up (in Thailand) against the THB on 12 consecutive working days

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Post by Bump » June 7, 2008, 10:06 am

Well since the dollar is falling against the Eoro and the GBP now, should be an interesting Monday around here. For some reason they don't seem to change at the banks on the weekend. Of course that has always been in thier favor, this weekend it may not be.

altoughI have seen changes in the other rates and oil on the way up again. As the article mention really don't see it in Asian currencies yet.

I recently read an article but don't remeber if it was the Nation or the Bangkok Post, they said that at the moment it was not neccessary to stop funds leaving. That would be a huge impact on investors here and might even get me into Ron's camp :lol:

Recent moves by the powers to be may have a negative impact on inflation.

As usual time will tell. A friend recently mentioned to me that it is interesting to be so close to history in the making.

I got to use the ATM today so we will see what happens.

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Post by Bump » June 7, 2008, 12:42 pm

33.02 ATM today I got one more to do this month, best rate I have gotten in a long time.

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Post by JimboPSM » June 9, 2008, 9:00 am

Bump wrote:Well since the dollar is falling against the Euro and the GBP now, should be an interesting Monday around here...........
The opening rates for the THB are showing that even if the USD is having problems, those of the THB are much greater - whether this state of affairs continues through the day remains to be seen.

Initial movements (on average buy/sell rates) compared to Friday close for USD, GBP, EUR & AUD are:

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    Post by wokkawombat » June 9, 2008, 10:09 am

    SCB iare offering 31.74 for AUD T.C. This is the best I have seen for at least 5 years but I will procrastinate as usual as I have plenty of cash reserves in BKK Bank at the moment

    John
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    Post by JimboPSM » June 9, 2008, 6:02 pm

    Monday closing rates against USD, GBP, EUR & AUD eased back slightly from their opening values but are still well up from Fridays close. Compared to Friday, average buy/sell rates closed as:

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      Post by aznyron » June 9, 2008, 8:11 pm

      well siam bank gives .02 more baht for the dollar than bangkok bank 32.86 Siam bank 32.84 bkk bank well Viet dong had slight gain in strength today the Malaysia Ringit holding at 3.28 to 1 USD
      very minor change both up & down

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      Post by JimboPSM » June 9, 2008, 8:13 pm

      We now have a reason for the improvement in the THB since its opening this morning, intervention by BoT - breaking news from Bangkok Post:
      Central Bank jumps in to strengthen falling baht

      The Bank of Thailand on Monday intervened in the foreign exchange market to halt a rapid slide of the baht currency, officials said.

      Suchada Gillakul, assistant to the central bank's governor, said the intervention was deemed necessary after the baht dropped to 33.41 to the dollar Monday morning, its lowest rate in five months. It had closed Friday at 32.96.

      "We will investigate whether foreign investors are speculating on the baht," she told reporters.

      After the intervention, the baht traded at 33.22 to the dollar Monday afternoon.

      Like most Asian currencies, the Thai baht has steadily appreciated against the dollar, gaining almost 20 per cent over the past two years before starting to weaken last month in the wake of rising inflation, growing political instability, declines on the stock market and slowing growth projections.

      By midday Monday, the Stock Exchange of Thailand index had fallen 1.3 per cent largely in response to a dramatic fall on Wall Street Friday. (dpa)
      It will be interesting to see if this intervention by the Central Bank works - previous interventions don't have a history of stunning successes.

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      Post by wokkawombat » June 10, 2008, 10:18 am

      Yesterday SCB gave Baht 127,035 for AUD 4000.00 TC, todays quote 124,325 for 4000.00 AUD TC. This is the raw amount before regulation fee and duty stamps.

      John
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      Post by JimboPSM » June 10, 2008, 10:56 am

      wokkawombat wrote:Yesterday SCB gave Baht 127,035 for AUD 4000.00 TC, todays quote 124,325 for 4000.00 AUD TC. This is the raw amount before regulation fee and duty stamps.

      John
      This was due to a marked shift in market sentiment (which occurred after market close in Thailand yesterday) about the likely move in comparative interest rates between the US & Australia.

      Structural inflation has become a major concern for the Fed and speculation that US interest rates will rise has ratcheted up following comments by Bernanke on inflation & Paulson on currency intervention - in Australia there are increasing worries that the existing high interest rates are slowing the economy and may be reduced.

      One way of viewing the relationship of the AUD to the THB can be seen in the following equation:
      • AUD/USD x USD/THB = AUD/THB
      From this you can see that a direct change in the rate with the US will change the rate with Thailand.

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      Post by wokkawombat » June 10, 2008, 1:01 pm

      JimboPSM, I understand your mathematics, my post was more that I did not procrastinate this time and reaped a small windfall. I did not state this clearly.

      John
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      Post by JimboPSM » June 10, 2008, 7:21 pm

      wokkawombat wrote:....... my post was more that I did not procrastinate this time and reaped a small windfall......

      John
      • Good to see you caught it at the top :D something most of us miss :oops: :cry:

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      Post by aznyron » June 11, 2008, 8:32 am

      Jimbo I like your post but I like mine better. The thai banks and the Government are inflating the baht. This is what I said almost two years ago and I never thought different even with many of you telling me I was wrong it seems that David is posting the facts that shows I am on target
      now let see what else the Gov/banks do to keep the baht inflated I will not use the word strong because you can not make it strong only inflated it

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