Dollar lets give the baht a rest

This section is for general money matters, finance and investing.
Post Reply
bumper
udonmap.com
Posts: 8875
Joined: July 16, 2008, 1:54 pm
Location: London

Dollar lets give the baht a rest

Post by bumper » October 31, 2013, 8:18 am

The effects of the last fiasco and the possibility of another in the near futue

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101154331


I reserve the right to be wrong, mispell words type badly. leave words out of sentences because my mind works faster then my fingers. To be an OLD GIT I've earned it

bumper
udonmap.com
Posts: 8875
Joined: July 16, 2008, 1:54 pm
Location: London

Dollar lets give the baht a rest

Post by bumper » November 9, 2013, 6:13 pm

Dollar and the FED, maybe the tapering will start earlier and the dollar will gain strength.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101182786
I reserve the right to be wrong, mispell words type badly. leave words out of sentences because my mind works faster then my fingers. To be an OLD GIT I've earned it

bumper
udonmap.com
Posts: 8875
Joined: July 16, 2008, 1:54 pm
Location: London

Dollar lets give the baht a rest

Post by bumper » November 11, 2013, 5:10 pm

What are the banks doing with all that FED money, surprised me.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101186133
I reserve the right to be wrong, mispell words type badly. leave words out of sentences because my mind works faster then my fingers. To be an OLD GIT I've earned it

bumper
udonmap.com
Posts: 8875
Joined: July 16, 2008, 1:54 pm
Location: London

Dollar lets give the baht a rest

Post by bumper » November 14, 2013, 11:12 am

So far Yellens position does not look good for the dollar

http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews ... ds-advance
I reserve the right to be wrong, mispell words type badly. leave words out of sentences because my mind works faster then my fingers. To be an OLD GIT I've earned it

bumper
udonmap.com
Posts: 8875
Joined: July 16, 2008, 1:54 pm
Location: London

Dollar lets give the baht a rest

Post by bumper » November 25, 2013, 10:04 am

Interesting article about the dollar

Business > News BY INVITATION Supremacy of the us dollar down but not yet out Published: 25 Nov 2013 at 00.00 Newspaper section: Business Since 1976, the US dollar's role as an international...

Please credit and share this article with others using this link:http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/new ... ot-yet-out. View our policies at http://goo.gl/9HgTd and http://goo.gl/ou6Ip. © Post Publishing PCL. All rights reserved.
I reserve the right to be wrong, mispell words type badly. leave words out of sentences because my mind works faster then my fingers. To be an OLD GIT I've earned it

User avatar
KHONDAHM
udonmap.com
Posts: 2428
Joined: November 15, 2009, 3:07 pm

Dollar lets give the baht a rest

Post by KHONDAHM » December 5, 2013, 11:33 am

While the Fed Talks Taper, China Prepares to Actually do it!
November 22, 2013
Enjoy this site much more by adding idiots to your ignore list (Friends & Foes tab).
http:\\www.udonmap.com/udonthaniforum/ucp.php? ... &mode=foes

bumper
udonmap.com
Posts: 8875
Joined: July 16, 2008, 1:54 pm
Location: London

Dollar lets give the baht a rest

Post by bumper » January 29, 2014, 11:16 am

Will the FED taper again economist seem to think so. \:D/

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101371433
I reserve the right to be wrong, mispell words type badly. leave words out of sentences because my mind works faster then my fingers. To be an OLD GIT I've earned it

bumper
udonmap.com
Posts: 8875
Joined: July 16, 2008, 1:54 pm
Location: London

Dollar lets give the baht a rest

Post by bumper » January 30, 2014, 9:04 am

Well they cut another ten billion a month. Maybe we will see 33 again with this.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews ... ulus-again
I reserve the right to be wrong, mispell words type badly. leave words out of sentences because my mind works faster then my fingers. To be an OLD GIT I've earned it

bumper
udonmap.com
Posts: 8875
Joined: July 16, 2008, 1:54 pm
Location: London

Dollar lets give the baht a rest

Post by bumper » January 30, 2014, 9:33 am

Copy of the FED statement

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101374349
I reserve the right to be wrong, mispell words type badly. leave words out of sentences because my mind works faster then my fingers. To be an OLD GIT I've earned it

bumper
udonmap.com
Posts: 8875
Joined: July 16, 2008, 1:54 pm
Location: London

Dollar lets give the baht a rest

Post by bumper » February 1, 2014, 5:04 pm

Dollar biggest gain since last May. It has bounce on and of 33 against the baht

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-0 ... -rout.html
I reserve the right to be wrong, mispell words type badly. leave words out of sentences because my mind works faster then my fingers. To be an OLD GIT I've earned it

User avatar
KHONDAHM
udonmap.com
Posts: 2428
Joined: November 15, 2009, 3:07 pm

Dollar lets give the baht a rest

Post by KHONDAHM » February 2, 2014, 4:55 am

bumper wrote:Dollar biggest gain since last May. It has bounce on and of 33 against the baht

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-0 ... -rout.html
Turmoil = baht drop. Hang on to your wallet 'cause where the post-election turmoil takes things and when it is settled is anyone's guess!
Enjoy this site much more by adding idiots to your ignore list (Friends & Foes tab).
http:\\www.udonmap.com/udonthaniforum/ucp.php? ... &mode=foes

User avatar
Balthasar G.
udonmap.com
Posts: 223
Joined: April 9, 2012, 11:25 am

Dollar lets give the baht a rest

Post by Balthasar G. » February 2, 2014, 8:57 am

I'm not so sure if it is the turmoil that is the catalyst of the fall of the baht against the dollar. I think it's the dollar that became stronger and not the bath that became weaker, because both the euro and sterling lost against the baht, in spite of the turmoil.
I hope I die in my sleep like my grand dad did, not screaming like his passengers

bumper
udonmap.com
Posts: 8875
Joined: July 16, 2008, 1:54 pm
Location: London

Dollar lets give the baht a rest

Post by bumper » February 2, 2014, 10:04 am

Sorry wrong thread
I reserve the right to be wrong, mispell words type badly. leave words out of sentences because my mind works faster then my fingers. To be an OLD GIT I've earned it

bumper
udonmap.com
Posts: 8875
Joined: July 16, 2008, 1:54 pm
Location: London

Dollar lets give the baht a rest

Post by bumper » February 7, 2014, 9:21 am

All things considered it has held much better then thought five years ago. I have to bring in a bit more this month, I;m waiting till we see what happens in the next round of elections, if we have one.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101396524
I reserve the right to be wrong, mispell words type badly. leave words out of sentences because my mind works faster then my fingers. To be an OLD GIT I've earned it

bumper
udonmap.com
Posts: 8875
Joined: July 16, 2008, 1:54 pm
Location: London

Dollar lets give the baht a rest

Post by bumper » February 8, 2014, 7:46 am

BOT doesn't for see any problems with the U.S. raising the debt ceiling

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/busines ... 26360.html
I reserve the right to be wrong, mispell words type badly. leave words out of sentences because my mind works faster then my fingers. To be an OLD GIT I've earned it

bumper
udonmap.com
Posts: 8875
Joined: July 16, 2008, 1:54 pm
Location: London

Dollar lets give the baht a rest

Post by bumper » February 16, 2014, 10:37 am

Well I'm not going to complain about the baht. That's not the problem dollar really headed South

Not sure I understand why, financial reports were not great. But, considering the weather problem not that bad. Stock market went up there and here.

Is it because they actually have a budget, that gives them the way to borrow more money?
I reserve the right to be wrong, mispell words type badly. leave words out of sentences because my mind works faster then my fingers. To be an OLD GIT I've earned it

User avatar
JimboPSM
udonmap.com
Posts: 3581
Joined: July 4, 2005, 3:23 pm
Location: Isle of Man / Bangkok / Udon Thani

Dollar lets give the baht a rest

Post by JimboPSM » February 16, 2014, 2:10 pm

I found the movement of the USD last week a little perverse and somewhat confusing - but that may be an age related thing #-o

While some US economic data forecasts were missed, the testimony of Janet Yellen on Capitol Hill on continuing tapering should have more than outweighed those missed forecasts in being positive for the USD.

The fall of the USD was exacerbated regionally because at the same time there was a more than proportionate rise in a number of Asian developing country currencies, most especially that of Thailand - one has to wonder if there may have been some intervention :-k

What would make some degree of sense to the US and Asian movements is if the markets believed that tapering were actually to be discontinued; however if that were to occur (which I doubt) it would seriously undermine the credibility of Janet Yellen as Chairman of the Fed and her future tenure there.

IMHO it is too early to tell whether the recent movement reflects a longer term shift in sentiment and direction for the USD, or whether it was just a temporary blip due to a combination of factors such as a reaction to the battering of bad weather in the US (which will make a minor impact on US GDP), some missed economic forecasts or maybe an overdue technical correction following a pretty long and broadly positive run.


The area that I believe to be most in need of a major correction in the US is the stock market – it has already ventured uncomfortably far into bubble territory ](*,) :fryingpan:
Ashamed to be English since 23rd June 2016 when England voted for racism & economic suicide.

Disgusted that the UK is “governed” by a squalid bunch of economically illiterate, self-serving, sleazy and corrupt neo-fascists.

User avatar
parrot
udonmap.com
Posts: 10925
Joined: March 19, 2006, 8:32 pm

Dollar lets give the baht a rest

Post by parrot » February 16, 2014, 2:44 pm

JimboPSM wrote:I The area that I believe to be most in need of a major correction in the US is the stock market – it has already ventured uncomfortably far into bubble territory ](*,) :fryingpan:
After last year's stellar performance, I was expecting a 10+% correction.....thought we were in the midst of one the last few weeks. But there seem to be too many positives out there.......cheap and abundant energy....in contrast to Europe's expensive and diminishing supply (lack of fracking); positive action by the fed after 2008....Dodd/Frank, bank reform, spending versus austerity; continued albeit slow improvement in employment; consumer spending is up; etc; and most recently, signs that the tea party influence in protracted fights over the budget are ebbing. I guess you could add on top that Janet Yellen seems inclined to continue monetary policy as it has been under Bernanke. All seems to add up to more positives than negatives for the market.
Of course, stock markets being what they are, we could wake up tomorrow to a major correction.....but barring bad economic news, I'd view it as an opportunity to invest....definitely not a time to sell.

bumper
udonmap.com
Posts: 8875
Joined: July 16, 2008, 1:54 pm
Location: London

Dollar lets give the baht a rest

Post by bumper » February 16, 2014, 3:13 pm

Well happy to hear I wasn't the only one surprised. The one watch closest is the Canadanian dollar and it went up just like all the rest from 1.11 to the 1,09 range again. Asian currencies overall did well last week. So far the great Bangkok shut down has been pretty much a non event. Maybe Teflon Thailand does fit, just a bit of a jerk in the markets. That could be attributed to major hedge funds moving into the SET.

I believe this days it appears a the U.S. goes so does the SET.

Sure messed up my game plan :lol:

Gold sure messed up my game plan :lol:

Well ain't over to the fat lady sings she is not at the theater yet
I reserve the right to be wrong, mispell words type badly. leave words out of sentences because my mind works faster then my fingers. To be an OLD GIT I've earned it

User avatar
JimboPSM
udonmap.com
Posts: 3581
Joined: July 4, 2005, 3:23 pm
Location: Isle of Man / Bangkok / Udon Thani

Dollar lets give the baht a rest

Post by JimboPSM » February 16, 2014, 6:04 pm

These are updates to a couple of charts I produced some time ago.
  • DJ from 1928 to 2014
    DJ 2014.02Feb 01.jpg
    DJ from 1928 with compound interest projections to 2049
    DJ 2014.02Feb 02.jpg
Unless the growth of the DJ over the years only bears a fairly low correlation with GDP growth then there would appear to be little doubt that the DJ is currently overvalued and into bubble territory.

For the DJ to be where it is at today would actually require a compound growth rate of 8.52% since 1988 – that is a rate that (apart from a chosen few like Microsoft, Apple & Cisco) is rather hard to see.

Theoretically it would actually take until 2030 (a mere 16 years away) to get to the current value with a rather more believable compound growth rate since 1988 of 5.0%.

Again, theoretically, if you actually go by the actual compound growth rate from 1928 to 1988, which was 3.44% it would take until 2049 (only a mere 35 years away) to get to the current value.

It is hard not to believe that, once again, we are experiencing a disturbing degree of irrational exuberance – in addition to creating inflation and overvalued Asian currencies, QE and the extended low interest regime from the Fed has fuelled a stock market bubble in the US which will take considerable skill (and a lot of luck) to deflate without exploding.

If there is an award for the greatest degree of unintended consequences, QE has to be a leading contender :shock:
Ashamed to be English since 23rd June 2016 when England voted for racism & economic suicide.

Disgusted that the UK is “governed” by a squalid bunch of economically illiterate, self-serving, sleazy and corrupt neo-fascists.

Post Reply

Return to “Money, Finance & Investing”