http://www.fototime.com/5FC37D89A277DA5/conv.wmv
Ronnie (Aznyron) would like you all to see this one, so here it is!
Dollar lets give the baht a rest
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JimboPSM
- udonmap.com
- Posts: 3581
- Joined: July 4, 2005, 3:23 pm
- Location: Isle of Man / Bangkok / Udon Thani
This is an update of the above chart for this year that I posted about three weeks ago, it now runs from 1st January - 4th June 2008.JimboPSM wrote:This makes a refreshing change - but is it a dead cat
Although the falling trend of the dollar has (for the time being) been halted, the fundamental structural problems in the US economy, although helped slightly by the weaker dollar, still remain essentially the same and the risk of further depreciation is still lurking in the background.
As Stan pointed out if the MPC were to increase rates proportionately more than the Fed the USD could return to a downward trend against the THB (the next scheduled interest rate meetings are: Fed June 24th & MPC 16th July).
With the current high price of oil (and other forms of energy) there will certainly be pressure from interested parties to keep the value of the THB as high as possible against the USD.
Rico I can not say it better what I can say is you get a true exchange rate for your money not some B/S rate from Thailand who only interest is to screw the world and it own poor people they don't seem to care if some foreign company moves out and few hundred thai's lose there job
they practice protectionism but they want to play in a global world what moron would invest his or her money here and only allowed to own 49% of the company and you buy a house the thai G/F or wife owns it I have no problem with that but it does seem many farlangs cry when they g/f boots them out or they get a surprise like she already has a hubby or a boy friend and does not want him any more it seems to me no matter what I post you find fault with it I am very curious to why ?
I know I am not as smart as you but I will match you any day of the week when it comes to street smart I did not spend my 70 years with my head up my azz
they practice protectionism but they want to play in a global world what moron would invest his or her money here and only allowed to own 49% of the company and you buy a house the thai G/F or wife owns it I have no problem with that but it does seem many farlangs cry when they g/f boots them out or they get a surprise like she already has a hubby or a boy friend and does not want him any more it seems to me no matter what I post you find fault with it I am very curious to why ?
I know I am not as smart as you but I will match you any day of the week when it comes to street smart I did not spend my 70 years with my head up my azz
Find fault? I think I wished you good luck. If I ask a question of you, it is only to try to clarify something that you've said. I don't think I have ever attacked you or even called names of any of those who you support.aznyron wrote:Rico I can not say it better what I can say is you get a true exchange rate for your money not some B/S rate from Thailand who only interest is to screw the world and it own poor people they don't seem to care if some foreign company moves out and few hundred thai's lose there job
they practice protectionism but they want to play in a global world what moron would invest his or her money here and only allowed to own 49% of the company and you buy a house the thai G/F or wife owns it I have no problem with that but it does seem many farlangs cry when they g/f boots them out or they get a surprise like she already has a hubby or a boy friend and does not want him any more it seems to me no matter what I post you find fault with it I am very curious to why ?
I know I am not as smart as you but I will match you any day of the week when it comes to street smart I did not spend my 70 years with my head up my azz
I'll refrain from responding to your posts if it bothers you. Please accept my apologies.
Rico it was the way you posted it please accept my apology for misinterpreting your post
like I said many times I am not the brightest bulb in here I do make errors and I am always ready
to apologize and I never accused you of calling any of the people I support a name sadly I am guilty of that because I did attack Bush on many occasions but I guess I just dislike the man very much since in my heart I believe he was behind 9-11 but I will not go there
like I said many times I am not the brightest bulb in here I do make errors and I am always ready
to apologize and I never accused you of calling any of the people I support a name sadly I am guilty of that because I did attack Bush on many occasions but I guess I just dislike the man very much since in my heart I believe he was behind 9-11 but I will not go there
Thats a good thing Ron, but the other side of the coin is you will now pay 25% more for products.
The dollar is making some gains on it's on, so at least we may have seen the bottom there, time will tell. Indications are that Thailand is concerned about the baht weakening. To be honest that one was a bit of a surprise to me, since the exporters were after them during the fall. Seems a different approach now. Maybe the exporters made thier adjustments and it is not as crucial now.
The dollar is making some gains on it's on, so at least we may have seen the bottom there, time will tell. Indications are that Thailand is concerned about the baht weakening. To be honest that one was a bit of a surprise to me, since the exporters were after them during the fall. Seems a different approach now. Maybe the exporters made thier adjustments and it is not as crucial now.
Bump I don't have a problem if they raise food products up 25% because I have a choice to buy or not to buy but I am stuck in currency exchange rate I do not have a choice there if I want to remain in Thailand on another note the people in BKK are starting to rally against government policy on exporting rice and other products
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JimboPSM
- udonmap.com
- Posts: 3581
- Joined: July 4, 2005, 3:23 pm
- Location: Isle of Man / Bangkok / Udon Thani
After a 0.20 baht (0.61%) rise, USD/THB closed today (in Thailand) at its highest level since 13th Feb this year.
Ashamed to be English since 23rd June 2016 when England voted for racism & economic suicide.
Disgusted that the UK is “governed” by a squalid bunch of economically illiterate, self-serving, sleazy and corrupt neo-fascists.
Disgusted that the UK is “governed” by a squalid bunch of economically illiterate, self-serving, sleazy and corrupt neo-fascists.
Thailand is the world's largest rice exporter, with an average export volume of 7 million to 8 million tonnes of rice per year. It is followed by Vietnam, which exports 4 million to 5 million tonnes annually.
Rice Exporters' Association president Chookiat Ophaswongse said the world's rising demand for rice would likely ensure that Thailand met this year's rice export target of 8.5 million tonnes, worth Bt120 billion.
But if the Baht remains at a rate stronger than 35 to the US dollar, the value of the country's rice exports will fall short of that target.
source : The Nation
This above article is from last year as you can read and see for yourself that they try to manipulate the Baht towards the Dollar and unfortunately they succeeded. Now lets see if the weakening of the Baht will set through.
Rice Exporters' Association president Chookiat Ophaswongse said the world's rising demand for rice would likely ensure that Thailand met this year's rice export target of 8.5 million tonnes, worth Bt120 billion.
But if the Baht remains at a rate stronger than 35 to the US dollar, the value of the country's rice exports will fall short of that target.
source : The Nation
This above article is from last year as you can read and see for yourself that they try to manipulate the Baht towards the Dollar and unfortunately they succeeded. Now lets see if the weakening of the Baht will set through.
The looming war on capital controls
February 8, 2008
If Tarisa Watanagase, the Bank of Thailand, were a patient, she must have been staying in an intensive care unit by now. What would be her reaction if the surgeon were to emerge into the operating and he turns out to be Dr Surapong Suebwonglee holding his sharp knives?
Tarisa is now on the defensive. Dr Surapong, the finance minister, will be holding talks with her next week to discuss the possibility of removing the capital controls altogether. Surapong spoke during the political campaign that if elected as government, he would like to remove the capital controls.
Tarisa: on the operating table
Samak Sundaravej, the prime minister, has also indicated that the government is considering to move capital controls, although it will have to discuss with the central bank first. He understands that it is a delicate issue because the government may be trampling on the turb of the central bank.
Tarisa and her central bank officials are facing a dilemma. If they were forced to remove the capital controls, they would bear the consequence in case that the baht shoots through the roof again. There has been steady pressure on the baht, which is on the upward trend. If the baht gets stronger, the export sector and several other industries would get hurt. The central bank would be solely to blame.
What is the real situation then?
Surapong looks determined to remove the capital controls. He might introduce tax measures to impose on short-term capital instead of giving the central bank a blank cheque to curb the short-term money.
Tarisa and her team are ready to fight back. Next week they will be arming themselves with documents and data to support a need to maintain the capital controls, although most of the administrative measures under the capital controls have been relaxed. They are confident that once Surapong has digest the central bank's report, he should think twice before moving to abolish the capital controls altogether.
Another problem with Tarisa's central bank is that the supervisors of the banking institutions have been very tough with the commercial banks. Rules on banking supervision have been tightened, forcing the commercial banks to set aside reserves to account for doubtful loans.
The definition of the doubtful loans differs significantly between the central bank supervisors and the commercial bankers. Smaller banks, in particular, have been hard hit by the supervision tightening since they need to scramble for capital to set aside as reserves. The bankers have been grumbling about this.
You have to understand that imposing or removing capital controls lies in the jurisdication of the central bank. With this strong wind of political change, you can feel that it is a matter of time when the politicians will step in to clean up the central bank.
The Surapong's team of advisors does not seem to have high regard for the central bank at this point. The capital controls, introduced in December 2006, have dealt a serious blow to the financial markets. Tarisa's handling of the baht operation had run into trouble before the situation has improved since the last part of 2007.
We have to keep an eye on this story next week.
Still, if in the end, the central bank is forced to abolish the capital controls, what would be other support measures to cushion the baht in the event that short-term capital flows in massively to speculate against the baht? The central bank would be challenging the Finance Ministry to come up with further recommendations.
Source: Nation
February 8, 2008
If Tarisa Watanagase, the Bank of Thailand, were a patient, she must have been staying in an intensive care unit by now. What would be her reaction if the surgeon were to emerge into the operating and he turns out to be Dr Surapong Suebwonglee holding his sharp knives?
Tarisa is now on the defensive. Dr Surapong, the finance minister, will be holding talks with her next week to discuss the possibility of removing the capital controls altogether. Surapong spoke during the political campaign that if elected as government, he would like to remove the capital controls.
Tarisa: on the operating table
Samak Sundaravej, the prime minister, has also indicated that the government is considering to move capital controls, although it will have to discuss with the central bank first. He understands that it is a delicate issue because the government may be trampling on the turb of the central bank.
Tarisa and her central bank officials are facing a dilemma. If they were forced to remove the capital controls, they would bear the consequence in case that the baht shoots through the roof again. There has been steady pressure on the baht, which is on the upward trend. If the baht gets stronger, the export sector and several other industries would get hurt. The central bank would be solely to blame.
What is the real situation then?
Surapong looks determined to remove the capital controls. He might introduce tax measures to impose on short-term capital instead of giving the central bank a blank cheque to curb the short-term money.
Tarisa and her team are ready to fight back. Next week they will be arming themselves with documents and data to support a need to maintain the capital controls, although most of the administrative measures under the capital controls have been relaxed. They are confident that once Surapong has digest the central bank's report, he should think twice before moving to abolish the capital controls altogether.
Another problem with Tarisa's central bank is that the supervisors of the banking institutions have been very tough with the commercial banks. Rules on banking supervision have been tightened, forcing the commercial banks to set aside reserves to account for doubtful loans.
The definition of the doubtful loans differs significantly between the central bank supervisors and the commercial bankers. Smaller banks, in particular, have been hard hit by the supervision tightening since they need to scramble for capital to set aside as reserves. The bankers have been grumbling about this.
You have to understand that imposing or removing capital controls lies in the jurisdication of the central bank. With this strong wind of political change, you can feel that it is a matter of time when the politicians will step in to clean up the central bank.
The Surapong's team of advisors does not seem to have high regard for the central bank at this point. The capital controls, introduced in December 2006, have dealt a serious blow to the financial markets. Tarisa's handling of the baht operation had run into trouble before the situation has improved since the last part of 2007.
We have to keep an eye on this story next week.
Still, if in the end, the central bank is forced to abolish the capital controls, what would be other support measures to cushion the baht in the event that short-term capital flows in massively to speculate against the baht? The central bank would be challenging the Finance Ministry to come up with further recommendations.
Source: Nation
Adventures of the Baht
Source: Business Standard, 20 December 2006
The Thai Baht has been one of the more interesting currencies of the world. Prior to the Asian Crisis, it was a de facto pegged exchange rate. From 1985 onwards, there was a `market', but the government ensured that there were no significant price movements. By "containing volatility", the government gave the private sector false expectations about currency risk.
In the 1997 crisis, in a few days, the currency moved from 22-25 THB per dollar to a low of 55 per dollar. This large movement generated a massive scale of bankruptcy among corporations and banks, which had USD denominated borrowing, and had been persuaded by their government that the umbrella of public sector risk management would do its job.
Owing to this period, the Thais understood that a de facto pegged exchange rate is bad policy. In the post-2000 period, the standard deviation of weekly percentage changes in the rupee-dollar (INR/USD) exchange rate was 0.44%. The comparable number for Thailand was 0.78%. The Thais have much superior currency flexibility.
Things got awkward this year in Thailand, when the coup of 19 September appears to have actually helped break a damaging political stalemate. It has given an improved outlook on the Thai economy, and generated a surge of capital coming into the country. The Baht has risen about 16% this year, to a nine-year high. That is a big move - e.g. it would be an appreciation of the Indian rupee from 45 to 38.
Faced with strong lobbying by exporters who are hurt by appreciation, the Thais faced a difficult situation. The menu of options is short, and all the options are unpleasant:
* The central bank can do market manipulation on the currency market. But this is difficult, and distorts monetary policy. The Thais remember how badly this had failed in 1997.
* The central bank could cut interest rates to deter capital flows. But the short-term profit from currency appreciation is large. Even if the interest rate goes to zero, thus igniting inflation, it might not stop capital inflows.
* The central bank could introduce capital controls. But capital controls are deeply distortionary. An entire bureacratic apparatus is created to watch over the movements of capital, and give out permits to some. The political economy of quantitative restrictions is deeply corrosive, as is well known from the field of trade, where there is now a consensus that all QRs must be abolished.
In Indian policy circles, these three approaches (market manipulation, interest rate changes, and capital controls) are considered normal and acceptable. Thailand has a better appreciation of the flaws of these paths when compared with India.
There is a fourth approach, which was invented by Chile. Faced with a surge of capital coming in, the Chileans had a principled position that in a rational approach to economic policy, there was no place for capital controls. As a person from their central bank once said to me, "We are Chile; we don't do capital controls". There was a quest for a market-based solution, which changed the incentives of foreign investors, but yet did not involve a license-permit raj.
The Chilean idea was to force all incoming capital flows to put a fraction of their money into non-interest bearing accounts with the central bank which are locked-in for a year. Apart from this, there was full convertibility. The government played no role in trying to constrain the foreign investor in any fashion - they were free to buy or sell shares or bonds or real estate etc.
A similar approach was implemented by the Thais on Monday. Banks have been required to lock up 30% of new foreign currency deposits for a year. Through this, foreign investors have to effectively have a horizon of more than a year in order to justify coming in.
This approach is attractive, particularly when compared with the problems of the other three approaches of market manipulation, interest rate changes or capital controls. It must be emphasised that this "tax" on capital inflows should not be seen as an additional element of capital controls. The sensible strategy is to eliminate all capital controls, and only have this "tax". This would eliminate the license-permit raj, avoid the microeconomic distortions of capital controls, and avoid a corrosive political economy, while still trying to keep the government in the game of influencing the exchange rate.
Does it work? The evidence is problematic. In the case of Chile, the authorities tried this for a short while, but then realised that it did not particularly help matters, and they went on to have true convertibility. In the case of Thailand, the Monday announcement induced jitters on the part of the private sector, and was associated with a big drop in stock prices and in the Baht. The investor has seen Thailand have a coup on 19 September - this makes it difficult to have confidence in the long-term performance of the country. These events in Thailand have had reverberations all over the world, including the 2.5% drop in stock prices in India on Tuesday.
The history of currency arrangements is riven with war stories of this nature, where governments trying to have a say on exchange rates have run afoul of one problem after another.
For this reason, the modern consensus is that there is only one stable solution. This involves:
1. A floating exchange rate where the government is a spectator on the currency market, just as it is a spectator in price formation in other financial and real-sector markets;
2. An open capital account, where no license-permit raj interferes with the movement of capital across the boundary and
3. An inflation-target, which anchors domestic fiat money to the basket of commodities that is used to making the CPI.
These three elements are internally consistent and constitute a stable, long-term solution to the monetary policy puzzle. Other arrangements incur microeconomic distortions, an opportunity cost in terms of lowered growth, and lurching from crisis to crisis.
Central banks like to say that they care about systemic stability or financial stability. But their actions reveal a lack of interest in stability; flawed thinking by central banks has induced numerous crises. The modern understanding is that stability is obtained when central banks are tied down by inflation targeting, and prevented from meddling in either the currency market or in capital flows.
Source: Business Standard, 20 December 2006
The Thai Baht has been one of the more interesting currencies of the world. Prior to the Asian Crisis, it was a de facto pegged exchange rate. From 1985 onwards, there was a `market', but the government ensured that there were no significant price movements. By "containing volatility", the government gave the private sector false expectations about currency risk.
In the 1997 crisis, in a few days, the currency moved from 22-25 THB per dollar to a low of 55 per dollar. This large movement generated a massive scale of bankruptcy among corporations and banks, which had USD denominated borrowing, and had been persuaded by their government that the umbrella of public sector risk management would do its job.
Owing to this period, the Thais understood that a de facto pegged exchange rate is bad policy. In the post-2000 period, the standard deviation of weekly percentage changes in the rupee-dollar (INR/USD) exchange rate was 0.44%. The comparable number for Thailand was 0.78%. The Thais have much superior currency flexibility.
Things got awkward this year in Thailand, when the coup of 19 September appears to have actually helped break a damaging political stalemate. It has given an improved outlook on the Thai economy, and generated a surge of capital coming into the country. The Baht has risen about 16% this year, to a nine-year high. That is a big move - e.g. it would be an appreciation of the Indian rupee from 45 to 38.
Faced with strong lobbying by exporters who are hurt by appreciation, the Thais faced a difficult situation. The menu of options is short, and all the options are unpleasant:
* The central bank can do market manipulation on the currency market. But this is difficult, and distorts monetary policy. The Thais remember how badly this had failed in 1997.
* The central bank could cut interest rates to deter capital flows. But the short-term profit from currency appreciation is large. Even if the interest rate goes to zero, thus igniting inflation, it might not stop capital inflows.
* The central bank could introduce capital controls. But capital controls are deeply distortionary. An entire bureacratic apparatus is created to watch over the movements of capital, and give out permits to some. The political economy of quantitative restrictions is deeply corrosive, as is well known from the field of trade, where there is now a consensus that all QRs must be abolished.
In Indian policy circles, these three approaches (market manipulation, interest rate changes, and capital controls) are considered normal and acceptable. Thailand has a better appreciation of the flaws of these paths when compared with India.
There is a fourth approach, which was invented by Chile. Faced with a surge of capital coming in, the Chileans had a principled position that in a rational approach to economic policy, there was no place for capital controls. As a person from their central bank once said to me, "We are Chile; we don't do capital controls". There was a quest for a market-based solution, which changed the incentives of foreign investors, but yet did not involve a license-permit raj.
The Chilean idea was to force all incoming capital flows to put a fraction of their money into non-interest bearing accounts with the central bank which are locked-in for a year. Apart from this, there was full convertibility. The government played no role in trying to constrain the foreign investor in any fashion - they were free to buy or sell shares or bonds or real estate etc.
A similar approach was implemented by the Thais on Monday. Banks have been required to lock up 30% of new foreign currency deposits for a year. Through this, foreign investors have to effectively have a horizon of more than a year in order to justify coming in.
This approach is attractive, particularly when compared with the problems of the other three approaches of market manipulation, interest rate changes or capital controls. It must be emphasised that this "tax" on capital inflows should not be seen as an additional element of capital controls. The sensible strategy is to eliminate all capital controls, and only have this "tax". This would eliminate the license-permit raj, avoid the microeconomic distortions of capital controls, and avoid a corrosive political economy, while still trying to keep the government in the game of influencing the exchange rate.
Does it work? The evidence is problematic. In the case of Chile, the authorities tried this for a short while, but then realised that it did not particularly help matters, and they went on to have true convertibility. In the case of Thailand, the Monday announcement induced jitters on the part of the private sector, and was associated with a big drop in stock prices and in the Baht. The investor has seen Thailand have a coup on 19 September - this makes it difficult to have confidence in the long-term performance of the country. These events in Thailand have had reverberations all over the world, including the 2.5% drop in stock prices in India on Tuesday.
The history of currency arrangements is riven with war stories of this nature, where governments trying to have a say on exchange rates have run afoul of one problem after another.
For this reason, the modern consensus is that there is only one stable solution. This involves:
1. A floating exchange rate where the government is a spectator on the currency market, just as it is a spectator in price formation in other financial and real-sector markets;
2. An open capital account, where no license-permit raj interferes with the movement of capital across the boundary and
3. An inflation-target, which anchors domestic fiat money to the basket of commodities that is used to making the CPI.
These three elements are internally consistent and constitute a stable, long-term solution to the monetary policy puzzle. Other arrangements incur microeconomic distortions, an opportunity cost in terms of lowered growth, and lurching from crisis to crisis.
Central banks like to say that they care about systemic stability or financial stability. But their actions reveal a lack of interest in stability; flawed thinking by central banks has induced numerous crises. The modern understanding is that stability is obtained when central banks are tied down by inflation targeting, and prevented from meddling in either the currency market or in capital flows.
Baht expected to further strengthen this week
Posted: 2008/02/04
From: Mathaba
The baht is likely to further strengthen to 32.85 to the US dollar within this week, according to a leading Bangkok analyst.
Thailand's local currency moved in a narrow range of 32.90-32.91 to the dollar in Monday's morning trading session, close to that of last Friday.
The analyst said the baht appeared to be stable since the Bank of Thailand (BoT) continued to intervene in the currency movement.
It is expected the central bank spent up to US$1.6 billion intervening the baht value last week.
Given the upward trend of the baht against the greenback, the analyst forecast the currency would further appreciate to 32.85 to the dollar within this week and 32.50 to the dollar in the first quarter of this year. (TNA)
http://www.mathaba.net/news/thailand
Want more prove? pm me
Posted: 2008/02/04
From: Mathaba
The baht is likely to further strengthen to 32.85 to the US dollar within this week, according to a leading Bangkok analyst.
Thailand's local currency moved in a narrow range of 32.90-32.91 to the dollar in Monday's morning trading session, close to that of last Friday.
The analyst said the baht appeared to be stable since the Bank of Thailand (BoT) continued to intervene in the currency movement.
It is expected the central bank spent up to US$1.6 billion intervening the baht value last week.
Given the upward trend of the baht against the greenback, the analyst forecast the currency would further appreciate to 32.85 to the dollar within this week and 32.50 to the dollar in the first quarter of this year. (TNA)
http://www.mathaba.net/news/thailand
Want more prove? pm me
The Illustration of the rice export figures is probably the best support I have seen for controlling the baht. However, what I don't understand is if Thailand was buying dollars. it would seem that they would have a lot of that money now. That is sellable at a higher rate, thus at some point there hould be a breakeven and even a profit eventually.
The second aspect I think that needs to be considered is the baht as far as I know is pegged to a basket of currencies, not just the dollar anylonger. Overall the dollar has increased agianst most currencies, not just the baht.
I thought the controls were put on the baht because currency traders were driving it's value up artifically. We all knew when there was a better game in town to add to the coffers even if it was Zimbabwe, they would pull that money and put where that was.
Well where it is, is in commodities specifically oil. Leaving not only the US, or Thailand but all the countries in the world in a mess. Leaving a lot of people in the world at odds with thier governments over the cost of oil and food.
One of the things that I have learned is the way of the financial world is things go up and down, but they don't stay montionless and they don't only continue in one direction. Positive changes that are real are long term, day to day or month to month. But no one seems to want to expcest that. Thailand is doing OK, the dollar is doing a little bettre. Hardly a reason for anyone to panic.
I beleive that the total picture has to be looked at, right noe the baht is losing a small percentage of the baht, but it will gain in other ways. Just a exports increased in the states. But some are going to suffer until there is balance. Anyone noticing although oil is still expensive it's cost retreated as the dollar increased.
So Thailand is buying oil for less today a benefit to all, why oil is in most instances coupled to the dollar, I know it wasn't much of a move, but niether is the movement in the dollar.
Now where I am confused if someone a ignorant as I am in this area can understand this, why the powers to be don't seem to get it.
Did anyone really believe the dollar would stay down forever? I know some seemed to be wishing for it. You don't have to be a genius to figure that one out. All you have to do is look at history, this is not the first time this has happened. As close a I can see this is the seventh or eighth time since WW II. Recovery has been between 1 1/2 years to 2& 1/2 years. So there is a very long way to go and I expect some down turns during that process.
Great postings Amida made me think darn it's early for that
The second aspect I think that needs to be considered is the baht as far as I know is pegged to a basket of currencies, not just the dollar anylonger. Overall the dollar has increased agianst most currencies, not just the baht.
I thought the controls were put on the baht because currency traders were driving it's value up artifically. We all knew when there was a better game in town to add to the coffers even if it was Zimbabwe, they would pull that money and put where that was.
Well where it is, is in commodities specifically oil. Leaving not only the US, or Thailand but all the countries in the world in a mess. Leaving a lot of people in the world at odds with thier governments over the cost of oil and food.
One of the things that I have learned is the way of the financial world is things go up and down, but they don't stay montionless and they don't only continue in one direction. Positive changes that are real are long term, day to day or month to month. But no one seems to want to expcest that. Thailand is doing OK, the dollar is doing a little bettre. Hardly a reason for anyone to panic.
I beleive that the total picture has to be looked at, right noe the baht is losing a small percentage of the baht, but it will gain in other ways. Just a exports increased in the states. But some are going to suffer until there is balance. Anyone noticing although oil is still expensive it's cost retreated as the dollar increased.
So Thailand is buying oil for less today a benefit to all, why oil is in most instances coupled to the dollar, I know it wasn't much of a move, but niether is the movement in the dollar.
Now where I am confused if someone a ignorant as I am in this area can understand this, why the powers to be don't seem to get it.
Did anyone really believe the dollar would stay down forever? I know some seemed to be wishing for it. You don't have to be a genius to figure that one out. All you have to do is look at history, this is not the first time this has happened. As close a I can see this is the seventh or eighth time since WW II. Recovery has been between 1 1/2 years to 2& 1/2 years. So there is a very long way to go and I expect some down turns during that process.
Great postings Amida made me think darn it's early for that
Well here is something to think about, if it was bought at a high price takes time to catch up and sell that supply off before you will see a reduction. Please note the dollar dropped against the Euro last night and oil went up. So it could be a long time before you see that reduction.
Ron lets face it we have been through this many many times. You want to see a Thai govement conspiracy and that is OK if thats what you believe. Me I see business going on, people with big money making big money always been that way and always will be. You stand about a much chance conviencing me or the government conspiracy as I do of conviencing you.
So think we are just going to have to agree to disagree
In the end it doesn't matter what I think or anyone else, it i what it is and we have to deal with it.
Me I'm grateful for my 32 this month, hope it gets better and I think it will but not overnight.
Ron lets face it we have been through this many many times. You want to see a Thai govement conspiracy and that is OK if thats what you believe. Me I see business going on, people with big money making big money always been that way and always will be. You stand about a much chance conviencing me or the government conspiracy as I do of conviencing you.
So think we are just going to have to agree to disagree
In the end it doesn't matter what I think or anyone else, it i what it is and we have to deal with it.
Me I'm grateful for my 32 this month, hope it gets better and I think it will but not overnight.
well it amazing oil man becomes President in Jan 2001 and oil go to 124 bucks a barrel
& the USD drops in value and they call me the conspiracy theorist
I just don't buy in to the thai baht being that strong compared to the USD no matter how much weaker it got
that my opinion and I stand by it 100 %
& the USD drops in value and they call me the conspiracy theorist
I just don't buy in to the thai baht being that strong compared to the USD no matter how much weaker it got
that my opinion and I stand by it 100 %
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JimboPSM
- udonmap.com
- Posts: 3581
- Joined: July 4, 2005, 3:23 pm
- Location: Isle of Man / Bangkok / Udon Thani
He's been looking after his supporters - it's what politicians do; the oil barons are laughing all the way to the bank.aznyron wrote:well it amazing oil man becomes President in Jan 2001 and oil go to 124 bucks a barrel
Since the shock of 1997 the Thai Government has had to get its house in (some kind of) order and has the appearance of having its income and expenditure balanced.aznyron wrote:I just don't buy in to the thai baht being that strong compared to the USD no matter how much weaker it got
However in the US there was a minor administrative error - in the last seven years the US Government spent 3.5 trillion dollars that it forgot to raise in taxes and ended up having to borrow the money to balance the books.