Dollar lets give the baht a rest

This section is for general money matters, finance and investing.
Post Reply
Bump
udonmap.com
Posts: 4474
Joined: September 18, 2005, 6:58 pm
Location: Nam Som

Post by Bump » May 14, 2008, 10:18 am

Time will tell, but I hope we have hit bottom. Maybe we will see oil costs go down that would be nice.



mortiboy
udonmap.com
Posts: 3104
Joined: April 25, 2008, 8:59 pm
Location: Guildford/Udon

Post by mortiboy » May 14, 2008, 5:45 pm

Boring!All I want to know is how much In my pocket!All can be said in a few sentences.Why go to extreme detail?
Are people trying to present they are in the into politics and so intellectual?I am not impressed.The facts can be said in a normal down to earth way.Do you really think everybody will read such long dribble?
I have only signed up to this forum a month,so I am only an "outsider" I am ROY.
How long will it be before I am called ROYSY.(One of the lads)
I find this forum really interesting and enjoy all the topics.But I am hesitant to post a topic or reply in case I am called a "w.nker.num nut,low life ect ect ect.Some will say all in fun. I cant see that!These people act like spoilt kids.Why insult people who are only giving their opinion?Some even go to threaten libel action!
Shame really some members really put over good topics.
I am expecting some flak which I can take .As long as it is said in a respectable way way
Thanks :D

User avatar
BKKSTAN
udonmap.com
Posts: 8886
Joined: July 18, 2005, 12:55 pm
Location: Nong Khai

Post by BKKSTAN » May 14, 2008, 5:57 pm

Well, I deposited a check last week and the money should be here in 5 more weeks.If then trend continues I will get more bang for my buck!I would get 20,000 baht more today than last week!

And let me say,IT IS NICE TO SEE A CHART WITH A CHANGE IN TREND!Hopefully it isn't a dead cat bounce!A couple of more baht in the next 2 weeks and I will have a months living expenses covered and that wouldn't be boring! :lol:

mortiboy
udonmap.com
Posts: 3104
Joined: April 25, 2008, 8:59 pm
Location: Guildford/Udon

Post by mortiboy » May 14, 2008, 9:05 pm

Lets hope the chart keeps rising!Not like tempers!HaHa!

User avatar
saint
udonmap.com
Posts: 2888
Joined: February 28, 2008, 5:31 pm
Location: the truth is out there . but dont dare tell it !!!!

Post by saint » May 15, 2008, 3:10 am

O k, roy if you do the night market again next month , i for one will call you roysy. yes i agree that you do get a fair amount of politcal drivel on here mainly about the state of currency exchanges, but if like me you have to bring money in from abroad then this drivel does affect us so its an important issue to a lot out here.i personally like this forum, i find it entertaining, enlightening, a good source for gaining information, and the majority of people using it will help you if they can, as L A said a while back were a bunch of disfunctional misfits, but we all tend to look out for one another which i find endearing, there are a few exceptions , but thats life ah.

User avatar
JimboPSM
udonmap.com
Posts: 3450
Joined: July 4, 2005, 3:23 pm
Location: Isle of Man / Bangkok / Udon Thani

Post by JimboPSM » May 15, 2008, 3:42 am

saint wrote:....... as L A said a while back were a bunch of disfunctional misfits
  • He was only trying to make us feel better about ourselves.

User avatar
aznyron
udonmap.com
Posts: 4997
Joined: November 4, 2006, 8:38 pm
Location: Udon Thani
Contact:

Post by aznyron » May 15, 2008, 4:10 pm

well it look good for two days now it gaining again (thai Baht 32.02 it was 32.10 wednesday
just teasing us I guess

Bump
udonmap.com
Posts: 4474
Joined: September 18, 2005, 6:58 pm
Location: Nam Som

Post by Bump » May 15, 2008, 8:47 pm

I found this to be very interesting, because about a year ago I asked some friends if they were feeling the pinch. They had no idea about the currency, seems they do now. Guess it's one of those things that until it hits your wallet you just don't notice. One thing for certain there will be no changes until after November. Hope these guys are right about being on the upward path for the next six months. I wasn't really expecting to see 32 this month.

Paulson Should Act to Stop Dollar Slump, Americans Say in Poll

By John Brinsley

May 15 (Bloomberg) -- Americans want Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson to act to stop the dollar's decline, which has stoked the inflation eroding their household incomes.

A Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll found that 76 percent of Americans think the government should do something to halt the falling dollar. Among those with incomes of $100,000 or more, seven in 10 favored aiding the currency, putting pressure on Paulson, who's charged with setting the policy, to match his ``strong dollar'' rhetoric with action.

The U.S. currency has slumped 41 percent against the euro since 2002 and 13 percent in the past 12 months alone. That has contributed to a surge in energy and commodity prices to record levels, and prompted central banks to reduce their share of foreign exchange reserves in dollars.

``It's not just the economic impact,'' said Paul Burt, who heads Westlake Financial Group, an employee benefits consulting firm, in Lake Forest, Illinois. ``The perception of the decline in the dollar is as important as the decline itself. The dollar needs to be respected in the world, and the government needs to realize that.''

Burt, 47, had few specific prescriptions for the Bush administration beyond trimming the federal budget and U.S. trade deficits. ``I don't think it can be addressed very easily,'' he said, referring to halting the dollar's drop.

The nationwide poll of 2,208 adults was conducted May 1 to May 8. The sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points. There were 650 respondents who earned at least $100,000. The survey noted that economists say a weaker dollar both adds to the cost of imported goods and helps American exports.

No Intervention

Five consecutive Treasury secretaries in the Clinton and Bush administrations have maintained the so-called strong-dollar policy since 1995. Bush's Treasury chiefs have refrained from intervening in markets to buy the currency. The last time the U.S. bought dollars to influence its value was 13 years ago.

Paulson did help strengthen the language used by Group of Seven officials to address the dollar's decline last month. Central bankers and finance ministers from the G-7 denounced ``sharp fluctuations in major currencies'' that could have ``implications for economic and financial stability.''

The statement was aimed at persuading investors to look past the short-term U.S. economic slowdown and financial-market turmoil, a Treasury official said last week.

``The long-term fundamentals of the U.S. economy will be reflected in our currency,'' Paulson said in Kansas City, Missouri, last week, responding to a question from the audience. The Treasury chief has been asked by reporters or members of the public about the dollar repeatedly since its slide accelerated in September.

`Steadfastly' Opposed

Though the poll results indicate Americans want stronger action, analysts said it's still unlikely Paulson would abandon his opposition to intervention. That means popular discontent with the currency's decline may deepen. A new administration will take office in January after elections in November.

``The U.S. view is we'll take care of our economy and the currency will take care of itself,'' said Robert Sinche, head of global currency strategy at Bank of America Corp. ``The administration is steadfastly against any kind of intervention.''

Even without stronger government action, market watchers said the U.S. currency may extend its rally.

The dollar will strengthen against most major currencies in the next six months as the Federal Reserve stops reducing interest rates, a separate survey of Bloomberg customers showed.

Rising Rates of Return

The end of Fed rate cuts will boost the allure of American assets for international investors, according to U.S. respondents in the monthly Bloomberg Professional Global Confidence Index, which questioned 3,447 users from Chicago to London to Hong Kong.

After declining 15 percent in the previous 12 months to a record low 70.698 on March 17, the Dollar Index traded on ICE Futures in New York that compares the currency to those of six trading partners has risen 3.9 percent to 73.473.

``In order for the dollar to bottom out, investors have to change their behavior, and they seem to be doing so,'' said Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy in New York at Brown Brothers Harriman Inc. ``But Bush is going to leave office without ever intervening,'' he forecast.

Christina Griffin, who remembers her reaction to the euro's introduction a decade ago, won't be pleased with inaction. Married to a State Department officer and living in Italy, she was sure the new currency could never challenge the dollar's global supremacy.

``I thought, `this will never get off the ground,''' Griffin, a 63-year-old resident of Washington, said of the euro's 1999 debut. ``The dollar used to be everybody's benchmark. Now it's not. Something should be done.''

To contact the reporter on this story: John Brinsley in Washington at jbrinsley@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: May 14, 2008 17:00 EDT

User avatar
JimboPSM
udonmap.com
Posts: 3450
Joined: July 4, 2005, 3:23 pm
Location: Isle of Man / Bangkok / Udon Thani

Post by JimboPSM » May 16, 2008, 12:06 am

Basically it was a fairly good article - the area I would disagree on is the rationale on non- intervention; IMHO events have shown that the Government will intervene when their buddies are hurting.

Its interesting that the only prescription mentioned for addressing the problem was one that I have been going on about for some years: [quote]

User avatar
aznyron
udonmap.com
Posts: 4997
Joined: November 4, 2006, 8:38 pm
Location: Udon Thani
Contact:

Post by aznyron » May 16, 2008, 10:29 am

you want to test the strenght of a thai baht just go to sony USA check a price on a product like a camera
also go to apple check a price on a Computer then check those prices in thailand and then do the conversion you will see it comes out to 40 to 1 so even the big corp know Thailand is full of sh.it
it not the USD is weak it thai baht is full of sh-it and playing games with the rest of the world
I said this in the past and I stand 100% by my conviction I do believe any thing thailand banks & government tells us because they are all full of sh-it
Jimbo they are not morons they are worse they are thieves

jetdoc
udonmap.com
Posts: 986
Joined: August 20, 2006, 10:44 am

Post by jetdoc » May 16, 2008, 7:50 pm

Ron, There is about 20% duty on the apple products. I purchased my flat panel here in Thailand and ended up paying about 20% more than would have paid in the states and that was when we were getting 40+ to one. Recently I purchased a new Apple computer from the folks at the complex and again paid about 20% more than I would have in the states. That said I did notice that as the baht was gaining retailers were a bit reluctant to adjust prices downward;o(

Bump
udonmap.com
Posts: 4474
Joined: September 18, 2005, 6:58 pm
Location: Nam Som

Post by Bump » May 31, 2008, 9:18 pm

32.40 at the ATM roday

Dollar Posts Monthly Gain, Reaches 3-Month High on Fed Outlook

By Bo Nielsen

May 31 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar rose this month, reaching the highest since February against the yen, as economic reports signaling the U.S. economy may avoid a recession led traders to bet the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year.

The U.S. currency gained a second straight month versus the yen and euro as the government said growth was faster last quarter than initially estimated while a measure of durable goods orders unexpectedly rose. At the same time, evidence mounted that Europe's economy was slowing. Brazil's real was the biggest gainer this month among the 16 most-traded currencies.

``The U.S. might be coming out of the slowdown when the rest of the major economies start to cool,'' said Jeff Gladstein, global head of foreign-exchange trading at AIG Financial Products in Wilton, Connecticut. ``That added fuel to the dollar's rebound.''

The dollar climbed 1.5 percent this month to 105.52 yen, from 103.91 on April 30. It reached 105.87 on May 29, the highest since Feb. 28. The U.S. currency advanced 0.4 percent to $1.5554 per euro, from $1.5622 on April 30. The euro rose 1.1 percent to 164.15 yen, from 162.36 yen at the end of April.

Brazil's real was the biggest gainer this month among the 16 most-traded currencies versus the dollar, rising 2.2 percent to 1.627 per dollar. Fitch on May 29 raised Brazil's credit rating to investment grade, matching a move by Standard & Poor's on April 30. South Korea's won, with a 2.5 percent drop, was the weakest major currency this month.

First Quarter GDP

The dollar's biggest gain this past week came on May 29 as the Commerce Department said the economy expanded at a 0.9 percent annual pace last quarter, faster than its April 30 estimate of 0.6 percent. The government also said this week that durable goods orders excluding transportation equipment rose 2.5 percent in April. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey was for a 0.5 percent drop.

``The data has been dollar-positive because they'll allow the Fed to keep rates where they are,'' said Greg Anderson, a foreign exchange strategist at ABN Amro Bank NV in Chicago. ``They show the opposite of stagflation.''

The National Association of Purchasing Management-Chicago said yesterday its business index rose to 49.1 this month, higher than forecast, from 48.3 in April. Figures below 50 signal contraction.

German Retail Sales

Futures speculators flipped to betting on euro losses in the past week. Speculators including hedge funds held a net 3,390 contracts wagering on euro losses versus the dollar, compared with a net 6,841 contracts betting on euro gains a week earlier, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in Washington said yesterday.

The euro briefly fell yesterday after retail sales in Germany, Europe's largest economy, unexpectedly dropped for a second consecutive month in April as faster inflation left consumers with less money.

Sales adjusted for inflation and seasonal swings fell 1.7 percent from March, when they dropped 2.2 percent, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said. Economists in a Bloomberg News survey forecast a gain of 0.6 percent.

``Consumption in Germany is cooling down due to hefty oil prices,'' said Ryohei Muramatsu, manager of Group Treasury Asia in Tokyo at Commerzbank AG, Germany's second-largest bank. ``In such a situation, the Fed could raise rates faster than'' the European Central Bank. The ECB's benchmark rate is 4 percent.

The inflation rate in the euro area rose to 3.6 percent this month, matching a 16-year high, from 3.3 percent in April, the European Union statistics office in Luxembourg said yesterday.

`Close Call'

Crude oil for July delivery traded at about $128 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange yesterday. Futures reached a record $135.09 on May 22. Prices have doubled over the past year.

Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade show a 27 percent chance the Fed will raise its target rate by a quarter- percentage point to 2.25 percent on Sept. 16, up from 19 percent a month ago. The Fed has cut rates seven times since September by a total of 3.25 percentage points as concern mounted that a slumping housing market would trigger a recession.

Most Fed officials viewed the decision to cut rates on April 30 as ``a close call,'' according to minutes of that meeting released on May 21, signaling they may hold off from further reductions.

``The idea that the Fed will continue to cut rates has been completely put to bed and the market is now flirting with the idea of a rate hike,'' said Alan Ruskin, head of international currency strategy at RBS Greenwich Capital Markets in Greenwich, Connecticut. ``That has given the dollar a boost.''

Canada's dollar fell 0.6 percent yesterday to 99.32 Canadian cents, trimming its monthly advance to 1.5 percent, after a government report showed the economy unexpectedly shrank in the first quarter, fueling speculation the central bank will cut borrowing costs next month.

The Bank of Canada lowered the target rate a half- percentage point to 3 percent on April 22.

To contact the reporters on this story: Bo Nielsen in New York at bnielsen4@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: May 31, 2008 08:00 EDT

Bump
udonmap.com
Posts: 4474
Joined: September 18, 2005, 6:58 pm
Location: Nam Som

Post by Bump » June 4, 2008, 11:15 am

Well if it's the dead cat bounce it is a long one. Don't suppose someone wiht a bit of power is finally realizing that the value of the Dollar is in fact important?

MARKETS
Dollar holds on to gains after Bernanke comments
ReutersPublished: June 4, 2008
SINGAPORE: The dollar held onto big overnight gains Wednesday and oil prices continued to inch down, giving some support to Asian stocks and helping them recover from fresh concerns over the impact of the credit crunch.

The dollar jumped against the euro and other major currencies on Tuesday after the Federal Reserve chairman, Ben Bernanke, gave an unusually explicit warning about the inflationary threat from a weak U.S. currency.

"We take this as a meaningful shift in rhetoric," currency strategists at Morgan Stanley said in a note to clients, adding that Bernanke's comments could help the dollar recover more.

The dollar generally held steady in early trade on Wednesday, trading around ¥105.15 and $1.5450 to the euro.

The stronger dollar helped push down the price of oil and other commodities. U.S. crude was down 0.3 percent on Wednesday at $123.95 a barrel after having fallen more than $3 the day before. Spot gold fell to around $878.75/879.95 an ounce from $882.90/884.10 in late New York trade on Tuesday.



Today in Business with Reuters

Dollar holds on to gains after Bernanke comments

The dollar's longer-term weakness has helped drive commodity prices to record highs by encouraging the purchase of dollar-denominated commodities as a hedge against inflation.

The Nikkei share average in Japan was up 1.2 percent in morning trade, led by exporters like Sony on the softer yen.

The MSCI index of shares in the Asia-Pacific region outside Japan was up 0.4 percent, while a pan-Asian index was up 0.9 percent.

The Korea Composite Stock Price Index was up 0.4 percent, as the easing in oil prices helped auto makers and airlines like Hyundai Motor and Korean Air.

Shares rose in the face of continuing jitters over the vulnerability of the financial sector to the credit crunch, set off earlier this week when a ratings agency downgraded three U.S. brokerages and as The Wall Street Journal reported that Lehman Brothers may need to raise more capital.

The worries set off by the report on Lehman have been a boon to government bonds, as investors looked for their relative stability on the prospect that equities could prove more risky.

Japanese government bond futures fell on Wednesday after matching their biggest daily gain the day before, as investors took profits on the sharp rise.

June 10-year JGB futures fell 0.6 point to 134.75, after the 1.43 point rise Tuesday. The benchmark 10-year yield rose 4.5 basis points to 1.784 percent, after falling sharply the day before.

"There is no new factor to change the big picture as long as expectations for a recovery in the U.S. economy remain," said Yasuhiro Onakado, chief economist at Daiwa SB Investments. "JGB yields will likely stay near the upper end of the recent range."

The euro edged up slightly after dropping to a nearly three-week low against the dollar on Tuesday, trading at $1.5444 in early Asian trade on Wednesday.

The Australian dollar rose against the U.S. currency after gross domestic product data for the first quarter was stronger than expected, showing seasonally-adjusted quarterly growth of 0.6 percent.

The Aussie was at $0.9555/58, up from $0.9495 before the data was released.

User avatar
aznyron
udonmap.com
Posts: 4997
Joined: November 4, 2006, 8:38 pm
Location: Udon Thani
Contact:

Post by aznyron » June 4, 2008, 12:32 pm

I was told by some one much smarter than I am that Thailand spent billions to keep there Baht strong & I was also told just today by the same person that The Gov. of Thailand is not happy that the baht drop in value against the USD but they don't get upset when a factory moves to Vietnam because the exchange rate is stable & fair and the work force is better I also heard that Japan car makers are going to move out of Thailand because of the work force and the thai baht being inflated how much of this info is fact I am not sure but I believe it to be truthful I also believe Thailand is bull sh/it and it policies are the same

Bump
udonmap.com
Posts: 4474
Joined: September 18, 2005, 6:58 pm
Location: Nam Som

Post by Bump » June 4, 2008, 2:31 pm

Well not to go to far off topic but as of today BBC and Bloomberg both talked about Vietnam. Inflation has hit big time and the currency will suffer a huge drop. So it is not stable at the moment.

I think that inflation is not localized to this region and is now a world wide problem. Food and Oil seem to be the major force pushing it. I doubt that there are any sure fire ways to control this at the moment, for any country.

I believe we all knew that hard times were coming globely. This are tough times these day no matter where you are. I'll take that back our Aussie cousin's seem to be doing good.

I'm very pleased to see the dollar in the 32 range, hoping it is a trend that will continue.

User avatar
BKKSTAN
udonmap.com
Posts: 8886
Joined: July 18, 2005, 12:55 pm
Location: Nong Khai

Post by BKKSTAN » June 4, 2008, 3:27 pm

Inflation from increased fuel and food prices is everywhere,There are some expectations that BOT will raise interest rates to battle inflation!If they do w/o a corresponding increase in the USA,the baht will stop weakening against the dollar and return to its downward trend.There is no telling if the political cayaus will effect the baht or not!

User avatar
aznyron
udonmap.com
Posts: 4997
Joined: November 4, 2006, 8:38 pm
Location: Udon Thani
Contact:

Post by aznyron » June 4, 2008, 4:28 pm

Stan that funny USA reduce % rate and the USD get weak but the thai do it the baht get strong more b/s from our adopted country

User avatar
aznyron
udonmap.com
Posts: 4997
Joined: November 4, 2006, 8:38 pm
Location: Udon Thani
Contact:

Post by aznyron » June 4, 2008, 9:12 pm

Bump the vietnam Dong got weaker today it now a little over 16500 dong to 1 USD
so Vietnam is the place to go if you want a good to excellent exchange rate for your BUCK

Ricohoc
udonmap.com
Posts: 1718
Joined: February 8, 2007, 5:37 am

Post by Ricohoc » June 4, 2008, 9:21 pm

aznyron wrote:Bump the vietnam Dong got weaker today it now a little over 16500 dong to 1 USD
so Vietnam is the place to go if you want a good to excellent exchange rate for your BUCK
Choke Dee, Ron! 8)

I hear it is wonderful over there!

Amida
udonmap.com
Posts: 101
Joined: February 8, 2008, 12:15 pm
Location: Khon Kaen

Post by Amida » June 4, 2008, 10:06 pm

[img src="http://www.fototime.com/5FC37D89A277DA5/conv.wmv"][/img]

Ronnie (Aznyron) would like you all to see this one, so here it is!

Post Reply

Return to “Money, Finance & Investing”