Performance of GBP, EUR, USD & THB against each other since 2001

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Re: Performance of GBP, EUR, USD & THB against each other since 2001

Post by parrot » March 18, 2017, 3:35 pm

Might it be safe to assume that, just as the UK is looking out for its financial well-being post Brexit, the rest of the EU may be looking on how to capitalize on the exit of the UK. Since there appears to be no turning back, I'd think everyone would be trying to get the most out of the deal.....good, bad, or otherwise.

I'm not British, but it surprises me that folks from the UK can be so concerned about their own sovereignty after not being concerned about the sovereignty of other countries for several hundred years. Anyway, it would seem to me that the whole idea of the EU is to loosen up on individual country sovereignty concerns. I know some Texans who still find it hard to accept they're part of the bigger picture.......but seem to have no problem accepting (demanding) their share of federal assistance.

As for the Baht, despite all the empty buildings in Udon, a new monstrosity of a home improvement center on the ring road (after Global, Do Home, Home Pro, Home Mart, Tool Pro, Thai Watsadu, Homehub, and countless large mom and pop operations), and lots of darkness in all the condo operations at night, there are ongoing plans for even more subdivisions. Everyone thinks the burst is overdue, ........but if it's a wubble bubble http://wubbleball.com/ it could have a long way to go.

Nice weather sort of day to reflect on the world.......

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Re: Performance of GBP, EUR, USD & THB against each other since 2001

Post by Galee » March 18, 2017, 4:32 pm

parrot wrote: I'm not British, but it surprises me that folks from the UK can be so concerned about their own sovereignty after not being concerned about the sovereignty of other countries for several hundred years.
As much as I would like a long life I think I should point out to you that I am not 200 years old.

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Re: Performance of GBP, EUR, USD & THB against each other since 2001

Post by Lone Star » March 18, 2017, 4:46 pm

trubrit wrote:Jimbo, ashamed to be English, very surprised to see you write that,(Are Manx men English anyway?) As an economist you are taking a very narrow view based purely on monetary concerns, but the referendum was about much more than that as you as an intelligent man must well know. Okay my pension is down about 23% right now due to the exchange rate, which is mainly caused by the money men's fear of losing out, not by the facts apparent in the market place . Look at Toyota's 250 million investment in the car industry, do you think they would have done that if they shared your pessimistic view? Personally whilst my pension devaluation has hit me hard it is a price I am prepared to pay to regain our sovereignty and dignity away from the dictators in Europe who want total, yes total control of all that, I as a British Englishman value so highly, even wanting the Royal Air Force, who I was so proud to be a member of to be part of a "European" military force. Sorry mate I signed to defend my Queen and Country from those who were our aggressors and now , not being able to achieve their ambitions by military means want to do so by the back door of politics .
Time will tell but my money is on a better Britain for the next generation, hopefully we can regain the support of our true friends in the Commonwealth, if it is not too late. They have stood with us through thick and thin and I am still ashamed how we dumped them in exchange for the Europeans who still in my lifetime , caused so much death and destruction in their attempts to control the world .
Proud to be British for ever.
I'm not British, and I believe citizens of countries should be free to decide whatever they wish; but I agree with this post wholeheartedly.

=D> =D> =D>

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Re: Performance of GBP, EUR, USD & THB against each other since 2001

Post by parrot » March 18, 2017, 5:49 pm

Galee wrote:
parrot wrote: I'm not British, but it surprises me that folks from the UK can be so concerned about their own sovereignty after not being concerned about the sovereignty of other countries for several hundred years.
As much as I would like a long life I think I should point out to you that I am not 200 years old.
I guess I was thinking 1997, which seems like yesterday.

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Re: Performance of GBP, EUR, USD & THB against each other since 2001

Post by 747man » March 18, 2017, 6:10 pm

Jimbo, Ain't English if he's a Manxman, British Yeah but English Nah !!

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Re: Performance of GBP, EUR, USD & THB against each other since 2001

Post by JimboPSM » March 27, 2017, 1:24 am

These are some old posts on UM that provide a bit of history with regard to my views on Europe from previous years (essentially they are pretty much the same today) – the posts are exactly as originally posted; for those who are interested in the full context, the threads that contain the posts can easily be found using the UM search function as I have provided the topic/thread title and the time and date of these posts.

My post on “the EURO is dead” on Mon Jun 06, 2011 12:12 pm
JimboPSM wrote:
arjay wrote:Despite all the rhetoric in the media the Euro isn't going to die.....
Agree 100%

As I said some time ago on another thread:
JimboPSM wrote:..... The will in Europe for the EUR to succeed is seriously underestimated in the US (and by quite a few Europeans as well).... most Europeans are extremely conscious of the impact of two world wars in their homeland that resulted in millions of deaths and widespread devastation and there are no lengths that those Europeans will not go to, and the EUR is one of them, to avoid a repetition.
My post on “the EURO is dead” on Thu Jul 14, 2011 12:10 pm
JimboPSM wrote:The biggest vulnerability / problem with the Eurozone is that, although there is “monetary union”, there is not much of a “political union”; it is claimed by many Eurozone detractors that without “political union” that the Eurozone cannot work.

In my opinion it can work, but it requires hard work and a continual willingness to negotiate and compromise to deal with all the banana skins that a union of such disparate nationalities inevitably produces (not exactly the easiest thing in the world when you consider it has to encompass the egos of all the politicians involved).

A full “political union” is more likely to create further divides as (for it to succeed) it requires a degree of ceding of political sovereignty which will raise the nationalistic hackles of political opportunists and agitators in many of the member countries.

The problems that the lack of “political union” can bring clearly be seen when one contrasts the Eurozone with how well its main comparably sized competitor, the USA, works in facing up to its own fiscal problems.

Over the last few months as the US approaches its debt ceiling; the GOP and the Democrats (in the House and Senate) along with the White House have been striving tirelessly and selflessly to negotiate and compromise, willingly putting all their respective sacred cows on the table for the betterment of the country as a whole rather than seeking a political advantage for their own party..........


Hmmm...... actually, when you think rather more deeply about it, the problems of the Eurozone don’t really seem all that badl :-k :shock: :lol:
My post on “Is this the end of the Euro?” on Thu Nov 24, 2011 4:01 pm
JimboPSM wrote:The link did not work for me so I won't comment on the article, however here are some brief thoughts on my position regarding the EEC and the EUR that (by concidence) I was just putting together.

The EEC puts me in conflict with myself, instinctively the nationalistic little Englander part of me really doesn’t like it but when I stand back and look at it coolly, rationally and objectively I am forced to admit that it is actually better in the long run for the UK (and every other member).

It is incredibly easy to find all kinds of faults with the EEC and the EUR and there are multitudinous arguments for not being a member of the EEC and not having the EUR as your currency, however in the long run I believe every country in the EEC (including Germany) benefits by being in the EEC and will benefit further by having the EUR as a common currency.

Operationally the current structure of the EEC for the “EUR” countries inevitably creates trade imbalances that cannot be remedied by conventional measures that were the norm before they had a common currency i.e. traditionally when a trade imbalance occurred surplus countries would revalue their currency (or it would "float" upwards and deficit countries would devalue their currency (or it would "sink" downwards, such measures are obviously unavailable when there is a common currency.

As the conventional remedy is unavailable, in my opinion the only realistic available alternative is currently highly politically unpalatable by the “Sovereign” countries that are in surplus as it needs those surplus "Sovereign" countries to redistribute some of their gains to deficit countries.

At first sight this appears manifestly unfair, but it should be remembered that surplus "Sovereign" countries benefit as their currency does not float upwards.

The biggest beneficiary by far within the EUR countries has been Germany, in traditional terms its “currency” has been kept artificially low and its exports have benefitted enormously whereas the Mediterranean deficit countries have their “currency” held artificially high and their exports have suffered and, as more and more time passes, so the problem gets further and further exacerbated.

Reading between the lines, my understanding is that this is actually fully understood by all the participants, most especially by Angela Merkel and Germany who have been the primary beneficiary, but as an extremely astute politician Angela Merkel also knows that for her politically it can be suicide to do it and it can be suicide not to do it, she really is caught between a rock and a hard place.

The biggest clamours for the breakup of the EUR are coming from the US (who would be a huge beneficiary if the EUR were to fail and/or the EEC were to break up), UK and European fright wing politicians who revel in jingoistic chest thumping and the financial markets in general who view it as a huge money making opportunity for tomorrow (the short termism of the markets prevents them thinking as far ahead as the day after tomorrow).

Standing back from all the things I don’t like (and there are many) and taking all aspects into consideration my perception is that the sum of all the arguments for not being in the EEC and the EUR are heavily outweighed by sum of all the arguments for being in the EEC and the EUR.

The EEC as a whole can compete on a reasonably level playing field with the US and China, but if it were to be split up the potential for each country to be vulnerable to economic sabotage by other countries and/or financial institutions increases dramatically – anyone happen to remember how easily George Soros was able to make a killing on the GBP?
My post on “Is this the end of the Euro?” on Fri Nov 25, 2011 7:16 am
JimboPSM wrote:As I have said before, reports of the imminent death of the EURO are greatly exaggerated.

It continues to amaze me how the financial media, and in particular the US financial media, is unable to comprehend just how deeply committed EURO member countries are to making it work.

Memories of the death, destruction and family losses of two world wars in the European theatre are indelibly seared into the psyche of the EEC and EURO advocates.


As I pointed out about myself earlier “instinctively the nationalistic little Englander part of me really doesn’t like it but when I stand back and look at it coolly, rationally and objectively I am forced to admit that it is actually better in the long run for the UK”.

While I know many people who, like myself, because of nationalistic pride do not really like the loss of sovereignty involved in being a member of the EEC and having the EURO as a currency (instead of our hallowed pound), when push comes to shove in assessing the longer term economic benefits they are of the same mind as myself.
My post on “Baht What up with Dat?????” on Thu Jan 22, 2015 7:51 pm
JimboPSM wrote:While the EUR may have fallen back, it is still substantially healthier against the USD and GBP than when it was introduced.

Here is a simple chart in percentage terms that shows that:
  • • The EUR is worth 30% more against the USD than it was in 2001

    • The EUR is worth 25% more against the GBP than it was in 2001

    • However the EUR is worth 3% less against the THB than it was in 2001 (but as the THB has been subject to manipulation and is overvalued, it is not exactly the best measure to use)
  • EUR comp 2015.01.22.jpg
Since the crash in 2008 there have been multiple attempts to undermine the EUR and multiple reports of the imminent death of the EUR (all of which have proven to be completely bogus).

Even though all these attempts have taken a toll on the value of the EUR, as I pointed out above the EUR is still worth some 30% more against the USD than it was in 2001.

Although there have been (and will continue to be) problems with the EUR, in my opinion there is no doubt that the EUR has been a considerable success – and it is its very success that drives bonkers the Euro sceptics, the xenophobes and a large part of the media.

It's not exactly rocket science to identify the usual suspects in the media who regularly and wilfully misinform their readers and viewers.

The financial interests and the (hidden) agendas of those criticising the EUR and the EU should be closely examined before giving any credence to their oft-repeated and manifestly incorrect prophecies of doom.
Ashamed to be English since 23rd June 2016

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Re: Performance of GBP, EUR, USD & THB against each other since 2001

Post by rick » March 27, 2017, 1:56 pm

Some very pertinent comments in those posts. In the next 3 or 4 years we will see what happens with Brexit and continuing EU unity. I suspect that what you said will be vindicated.

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Re: Performance of GBP, EUR, USD & THB against each other since 2001

Post by Twixies » July 14, 2017, 7:06 am

JimboPSM please read this. So the bath is very strong somehow

How can this be
BoT 'suppressed baht' to bolster exports: KBank
http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/politic ... orts-kbank

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Re: Performance of GBP, EUR, USD & THB against each other since 2001

Post by JimboPSM » July 14, 2017, 8:25 pm

Twixies wrote:
July 14, 2017, 7:06 am
JimboPSM please read this. So the bath is very strong somehow

How can this be
BoT 'suppressed baht' to bolster exports: KBank
http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/politic ... orts-kbank
Very sorry, but with the exception of an underperforming (but positive) Trade Balance that is insufficient in itself, I am unable to provide any rational economic argument that supports the strength of the THB.

Borrowing a comment that Winston Churchill once made about Russia, the strength of the THB could be described as “a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma” :-k

Over the last three years there has been a rise of some 14% in the value of the THB relative to the international value of the USD while, in many respects, the economies have been heading in opposite directions.

As a result, I find that the claim in the article that last week there was an intervention to suppress the value of the THB, while quite probably true, to be somewhat disingenuous as it ignores the broader context of what has been happening to the THB over the last three years and, when compared to the last three years, is a relatively insignificant blip.

Note: Looked at purely within the context of last week, the claim is supported by a 0.35% fall in the THB against the USD.

An interesting point that was made in the article, but unfortunately not pursued, was how poorly Thailand exports are performing when compared to its regional peers.

While I find articles such as this interesting I treat them with a degree of caution as I don’t know to what extent details may have been cherry picked and/or if there is an agenda behind the article.

With regard to trading figures - there are a number of sources for Thai Export figures, unfortunately I do have a bit of a problem with them as they often contain significant differences (I haven’t attempted to reconcile them as I don’t have the methodologies used).

As an example of the variety of figures on offer, these are figures relating to year on year Exports growth to May 2017:
  • 1. The Kasikorn Research Center Exports growth in USD (& THB!) quoted in the BP article is 13.2%

    2.1 The Commerce Ministry Exports growth in USD is 12.7%

    2.2 The Commerce Ministry Exports growth in THB is 10.7%

    3.1 The Bank of Thailand Exports growth in USD is 10.6%

    3.2 The Bank of Thailand Exports growth in THB is 7.5%

    While the differences may not appear particularly large, in terms of measuring economic performance and, even more so for long term forecasting, they are enormous.

While I will not claim that they are perfect, the figures I distrust least are those from the Bank of Thailand – they are (at least in theory) less susceptible to political influence than those from government departments and, in my opinion, are more likely to be in accordance with worldwide central bank practices. The Bank of Thailand trade figures can be found here:
The more commonly quoted Thailand Ministry of Commerce figures can be found here:

As they do have an impact on the exchange rate I track the performance of Thailand Exports, Imports and Trade Balance, these are my charts (in THB & USD) from 2005 to May 2017.
  • Thailand trade in THB
    ThaiTradeBal2017.06THB.jpg
  • Thailand trade in USD
    ThaiTradeBal2017.06USD.jpg
While most of the talk in the media is about exports, I am more interested in the Trade Balance (exports minus imports) which is the black line in the charts above; while this has been positive for Thailand and the THB since 2014, due to the overvaluation of the THB it has been considerably lower and of less benefit to the Thailand economy than it could otherwise have been.

Although it is too early to be certain, there is an indication from the rolling annual figures that the Trade Balance surplus may have peaked in the second half of 2016 - this appears to be due to the rise in imports outstripping the rise in exports (I've not drilled down to investigate whether this may just be a temporary blip or an underlying structural change).

Finally, have any of you wondered why reports of Thailand Export, Import and Balance of Trade numbers are almost always reported by officialdom and the media in US Dollars when the currency of Thailand is the Baht?

Although I can’t be certain, I do have this rather vague kind of feeling that it might just possibly have been the result of a decision made at a point in time when it made the figures look better (anyone for smoke and mirrors?).

On a serious note, it is of concern that economic decision making in Thailand might be being made on the basis of USD based trading numbers - without a thorough and deep understanding of exchange rates, the use of USD based trading numbers in the economic decision process (when the currency of Thailand is the Baht) is absolutely fraught with innumerable pitfalls.
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Re: Performance of GBP, EUR, USD & THB against each other since 2001

Post by Earnest » July 15, 2017, 3:10 pm

randerson79 wrote:
March 15, 2017, 8:08 pm
Jimbo thank you for your posts. I find them very informative.
Agreed - illuminative, Jimbo. Thanks for that.
กรรม

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Re: Performance of GBP, EUR, USD & THB against each other since 2001

Post by Twixies » July 26, 2017, 6:09 am

Once again The powerful baht
The baht has gained about 7% year-to-date against the US dollar, trailing only South Korea's won, which is up 8% in the period, according to data provided by the central bank.
Im out of words, but seems like the hole world just wants the Baht as security [-o<
http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/new ... -bot-radar

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