ClimateGate busts things wide open

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Re: ClimateGate busts things wide open

Post by Lone Star » March 13, 2018, 7:17 pm

An article just out this past week.

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/cr ... -warming/

Should We Chill Out about Global Warming?

John Horgan, the director of the Center for Science Writings at the Stevens Institute of Technology, has penned an essay analyzing two reports by ecomodernists who reject climate panic and frame the question of climate change and humanity’s ability to cope with it in radically new terms.

One of the reports, written by Steven Pinker plays down "the mainstream environmental movement, and the radicalism and fatalism it encourages." Pinker argues that humanity can solve problems related to climate change the same way it has solved myriad other problems, by harnessing "the benevolent forces of modernity."

Pinker asserts that industrialization “has been good for humanity.”
It has fed billions, doubled lifespans, slashed extreme poverty, and, by replacing muscle with machinery, made it easier to end slavery, emancipate women, and educate children. It has allowed people to read at night, live where they want, stay warm in winter, see the world, and multiply human contact. Any costs in pollution and habitat loss have to be weighed against these gifts.
And just as human ingenuity has allowed us to overcome countless obstacles in the past, he notes, it is more than reasonable to suppose it will do so in the future as well.

The second report was written by Will Boisvert and contends that the "onsequences for human well-being will be small" even if human greenhouse emissions significantly warm the planet.

Boisvert, who has been described as a “left-wing environmental expert, is no “climate denier,” yet he calls for climate alarmists to take a deep breath and step back from doomsday forecasts that likely have little to do with what will actually take place in the future.

As an example, Boisvert pokes fun at a 2016 Newsweek article announcing that “Climate change could cause half a million deaths in 2050 due to reduced food availability.”

The story, based on a Lancet study, made dire forecasts regarding the effects of climate change on agriculture, while failing to note that the study actually predicts much more abundant food availability in 2050 thanks to advances in agricultural productivity. These advances will “dwarf the effects of climate change,” he contends, and the “poorest countries will benefit most.”

Like Pinkers, Boisvert tries to factor in what climate alarmists ignore: the capability of human beings to react to changing scenarios in remarkably ingenious ways.

Boisvert writes:
Throughout history humans not only weathered climate crises but deliberately flung ourselves into them as we migrated away from our African homeland into deserts, mountains, floodplains and taiga before embarking on an excursus into the striking cleverness of the Inuit in adapting to a hostile environment.
Boisvert claims that the current climate change “crisis” that has ecologists’ knickers in a knot, just isn’t that big a deal. It is merely the “latest episode in humanity’s ongoing conquest of extreme climates,” which will likewise “amount to just another problem in economic and technological development, and a middling-scale one at that.”

Climate Believers will undoubtedly seek to quash this news. After all, it could affect funding that they depend upon and the political programs that seek to impose their theft on the world.

If it turns out, after all of the wailing and hand-wringing, that the world is not under imminent peril from climate change, then why fund these prophets of doom with their exposed data manipulation?

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Re: ClimateGate busts things wide open

Post by papafarang » March 13, 2018, 8:16 pm

so still not read the memo about climategate then ? a myth made up by those in denial
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Re: ClimateGate busts things wide open

Post by Lone Star » March 22, 2018, 8:54 am

The data manipulation has been traced back years.

https://realclimatescience.com/2018/03/ ... 5-degrees/
This year has been a particularly spectacular episode of data tampering by NOAA, as they introduce nearly 2.5 degrees of fake warming since 1895.

Most of these adjustments are due to simply making up data. Every month, a certain percentage of the 1,218 United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) stations fail to report their data, and the temperature gets estimated by NOAA using a computer model. Missing data is marked in the USHCN database with an “E” – meaning “estimated.” In 1970, about 10% of the data was missing, but that number has increased to almost 50%, meaning that almost half of the current adjusted data is fake.
It is very difficult for any sane, clear-thinking and rational individual to ignore the repeated revelations of data manipulation over almost 10 years since ClimateGate occurred. It will become more and more difficult for Believers to convince the rest of us that we should believe anything coming from these "official" bodies and agencies.

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Re: ClimateGate busts things wide open

Post by jimjay » March 22, 2018, 9:05 am

The DATA ALARMISTS have spoken. Must be losing bad on the Trump front.

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Re: ClimateGate busts things wide open

Post by papafarang » March 22, 2018, 9:57 am

ClimateGate occurred....
still not read the memo, climategate was fake news ... there was no climategate . it only exist in your head, if you want to ignore 8 inquiries that all found nothing of significance carry on , the rest of the world has figured it out but you just don't get it.
it's easy . they set a computer programmed with known data on the climate and let it run to see if it matches what is already known . the next part is called research ,they update the data as it becomes available.
the next part seems to be your stumbling block. they then add data that they don't have to see what results they get, this is not data manipulation by the boffins...it's manipulated by the program itself, that's why its called a climate model
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Re: ClimateGate busts things wide open

Post by Lone Star » March 22, 2018, 1:31 pm

Revelations of data manipulation continue to be uncovered and exposed.

https://science.house.gov/news/in-the-n ... ted-global

In this particular case, the publishers of the faulty data ADMITTED that the datasets were flawed and should be "replaced and substantially revised." They OVERSTATED the speed of warming, which is at the heart of the Believers' argument regarding climate.
The scandal has disturbing echoes of the ‘Climategate’ affair which broke shortly before the UN climate summit in 2009, when the leak of thousands of emails between climate scientists suggested they had manipulated and hidden data. Some were British experts at the influential Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia.

NOAA’s 2015 ‘Pausebuster’ paper was based on two new temperature sets of data – one containing measurements of temperatures at the planet’s surface on land, the other at the surface of the seas.

Both datasets were flawed. This newspaper has learnt that NOAA has now decided that the sea dataset will have to be replaced and substantially revised just 18 months after it was issued, because it used unreliable methods which overstated the speed of warming. The revised data will show both lower temperatures and a slower rate in the recent warming trend.

The land temperature dataset used by the study was afflicted by devastating bugs in its software that rendered its findings ‘unstable’.

The paper relied on a preliminary, ‘alpha’ version of the data which was never approved or verified.

A final, approved version has still not been issued. None of the data on which the paper was based was properly ‘archived’ – a mandatory requirement meant to ensure that raw data and the software used to process it is accessible to other scientists, so they can verify NOAA results.
Continued revelations of this nature make it difficult for Believers to convince the rest of us of their climate argument.

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Re: ClimateGate busts things wide open

Post by Lone Star » March 27, 2018, 7:13 am

https://www.thegwpf.com/flood-of-new-sc ... g-results/

(my emphasis added)
FLOOD OF NEW SCIENTIFIC PAPERS SHOW SURPRISING RESULTS

Two days ago Kenneth presented an impressive flurry of scientific, peer-reviewed charts published over the past 15 months (46 alone in 2018). Much to the surprise of alarmist scientists, global warming is weak at best.

Lack of warming a global phenomenon

According to Kenneth, these new papers show that “nothing climatically unusual is happening”. For example a publication by Polovodova Asteman et al shows that continental Europe’s temperatures are lower today than they were on other occasions over the past 2000 years:
Image
In the chart, it can clearly be seen that that 20th century warming is perfectly normal in a long-term historical context. It is no warmer, and even slightly cooler, than either the Roman Warm Period or the Medieval Warming Period.

In further bad news for climate alarmists, it seems that two of their favorite bellwethers of global warming doom – Greenland and the South Pole, are cooling not warming.

Here’s Greenland, from a study by Mikkelsen et al: https://www.the-cryosphere.net/12/39/20 ... lement.pdf.

This puts Greenland’s recent warm spell in its historical context: over 150 years it wasn’t unusual. Temperatures now are cooler than they were in the 1930s.

As someone likes to say, "Weather is not climate." The study of Greenland's temperatures covers 150 years. A century and a half period definitely reflects climate. :)

A separate study confirms that Greenland is on a cooling trend:
Furthermore, much to the surprise of global warming scientists, Greenland temperatures have again been falling since 2000. Westergaard-Nielsen et al., 2018examined the most recent and detailed trends based on MODIS (2001–2015) and concluded that if there is any general trend for Greenland it is “mostly cooling”.
As is the South Pole:
At the other end of the planet at the South Pole, new findings by Cerrone and Fusco, 2018 confirm the large increase in the southern hemisphere sea ice and suggest it “arises from the impact of climate modes and their long-term trends”.

They write that the results indicate a progressive cooling has affected the year-to-year climate of the sub-Antarctic since the 1990s and that the SIC [sea ice concentration] shows upward annual, spring, and summer trends.
Ah, peer-reviewed, supposedly the stamp of approval for all things related to climate change -- is actually now showing that the Believer hysteria is unwarranted and that there is actually some cooling going on. :)

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Re: ClimateGate busts things wide open

Post by papafarang » March 27, 2018, 7:27 am

accurate European temp records going back to the romans ? amazing I know they can dig up a lot but that's brilliant, shame it was only Europe otherwise it might explain GLOBAL climate change .
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Re: ClimateGate busts things wide open

Post by rick » March 27, 2018, 5:25 pm

Just goes to show don't trust just temperature charts, particularly when their actual locations are very remote. So, if Greenland temperature hasn't really changed much over 150 years (and how many temperature records were being made in the Arctic 150 years ago? And where exactly in Greenland?) why has the sea ice fallen by 50% in the last 50 years (and gotten thinner)?

Something has happened. Most glaciers have been in retreat, many have disappeared recently. And, even in the Antarctic (which suffers a problem in that very little in the way of measurements have been made except by remote sensing, which is a rather new phenomena) the mass ice balance is now generally agreed to be falling, and in 2017 the Antarctic sea ice hit a new low since records began in the 1980's (it was 30% below the normal amount). Only the Eastern USA is routinely getting colder - rest of the world isn't.

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Re: ClimateGate busts things wide open

Post by Lone Star » April 27, 2018, 2:05 pm

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10 ... lCode=clim

The Believers are having a hard time catching a break.

A new study (link above) conducted by climatologist Judith Curry and mathematician Nick Lewis and published in the American Meteorological Society's "Journal of Climate" on April 23, downgrades the predicted global temperature increases by 30-45% compared to the forecasts of the IPCC.

This SUBSTANTIALLY LOWERS the U.N.'s forecasts of potential temperature increases, the authors of the study conclude
that climate change is "not as bad as we thought." The findings follow another study published in January that "all but rules out" both "very high climate sensitivities" as well as the lower end predictions of the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The study predicts temperature increases of 1.66C and 1.33C compared to the IPCC models' more dramatic predictions of 3.1C and 1.9C, respectively, a reduction ranging from 45-30%.

The downgraded forecasts of Curry and Lewis were published a few months after a study headed up by the University of Exeter's Peter Cox, which concluded that the most dire of the U.N.'s climate change models were almost certainly too high. The scientists significantly narrowed the range of possible temperature changes from the U.N.'s widely variable range of 1.5 - 4.5C to a more moderate 2.2 - 3.4C, with a best estimate of an increase of 2.8C by 2100.

As The Daily Wire highlighted in January, scientists have acknowledged that attempting to forecast future global temperatures is a near impossibility, as it requires factoring in the "known unknown" of "equilibrium climate sensitivity," which "requires accounting for a wide range of notoriously difficult-to-predict factors, including, as Cox notes, the climate 'tipping points,' rapid changes in the climate that have occurred historically caused by the planet itself rather than more predictable external factors." The process is so complex, MIT atmospheric physician Richard Lindzen says that "long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible."

=====

The fact remains that no one can state how or how much, in any measurable way, that man can slow, stop or reverse what the Believers claim is happening.

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Re: ClimateGate busts things wide open

Post by jimjay » April 27, 2018, 6:40 pm

Lone Star wrote:
April 27, 2018, 2:05 pm
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10 ... lCode=clim

The Believers are having a hard time catching a break.

The fact remains that no one can state how or how much, in any measurable way, that man can slow, stop or reverse what the Believers claim is happening.
So uh, who are these so-called "believers" again?

Didn't you capitulate already that this was a non-issue? There was no climate-gate?
jimjay wrote:
January 2, 2018, 9:32 pm
Lone Star wrote:
January 2, 2018, 8:32 pm
jimjay wrote:
January 2, 2018, 8:09 pm
ClimateGate itself has been resolved.
Fine.

But that doesn't mean that all the data manipulation that has occurred since is accepted either.

There will always be an ongoing debate over this until the Believers can answer all the vital questions that have been asked of them and remain unanswered.
Bravo, you concede ClimateGate itself is resolved.

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Re: ClimateGate busts things wide open

Post by Lone Star » April 28, 2018, 11:15 am

jimjay wrote:
April 27, 2018, 6:40 pm

Didn't you capitulate already that this was a non-issue? There was no climate-gate?
jimjay wrote:
January 2, 2018, 9:32 pm
Lone Star wrote:
January 2, 2018, 8:32 pm
jimjay wrote:
January 2, 2018, 8:09 pm
ClimateGate itself has been resolved.
Fine.

But that doesn't mean that all the data manipulation that has occurred since is accepted either.

There will always be an ongoing debate over this until the Believers can answer all the vital questions that have been asked of them and remain unanswered.
Bravo, you concede ClimateGate itself is resolved.
Thanks for quoting me accurately. The answer to your question is in my quote.

"... data manipulation that has occurred since ...

"There will always be an ongoing debate over this until the Believers can answer all the vital questions that have been asked of them and remain unanswered."

Some of the most important questions are HOW or HOW MUCH, in any specific and measurable way, can man slow, stop or reverse what the Believers claim is happening.

The debate will continue.

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Re: ClimateGate busts things wide open

Post by papafarang » April 28, 2018, 12:05 pm

" Some of the most important questions are HOW or HOW MUCH" real dumb question, might as well be asking to look into a crystal ball, tell me how many jellyfish will there be in all the seas in 50 years from now ? or how about telling me how many stars there are in our galaxy... if you guess within a million I will give it to you. ask impossible questions ? :lol: if someone had explained the internet too you 50 years ago you would have thought them nuts, so you want to debate on the future of the human race. the thread is climategate and even you admit it was just a hoax. in any mathematical equation with so many variables , plus updated input means there will always be a variation in results, you seem to think when more data is added its called manipulation :lol: . every year for the next 100 years the data will change, but you seem to know what it will be. lone star has a crystal ball and he knows the future and says it will all be fine :D
it goes several ways

1. we clean up our planet and climate change still occurs , at least the air we breath and the environment will be cleaner,even if it is hot. so lets prepare

2. we clean up the planet, climate change don't occur so we end up on a nice clean cool planet

3. we don't clean up , climate change occurs we end up polluted air and environment degradation , and a nasty hot place to live

4. we don't clean up, and climate don't change but we have polluted air and environment degradation. so lets do nothing

so I guess Lone star your the kind of guy who thinks the option 4 is best ? your debate stance is lets.. do nothing then ? me I hoping for number 2 myself :lol:
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Re: ClimateGate busts things wide open

Post by Lone Star » April 28, 2018, 12:35 pm

papafarang wrote:
April 28, 2018, 12:05 pm
4. we don't clean up, and climate don't change but we have polluted air and environment degradation. so lets do nothing

so I guess Lone star your the kind of guy who thinks the option 4 is best ? your debate stance is lets.. do nothing then ? me I hoping for number 2 myself :lol:
At no time have I ever proposed or even alluded to something so ridiculous, but I realize that you like making rash comments like this about my posts. :)

A specific and measurable way is not simply to say "clean up".

My questions remain unanswered.

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Re: ClimateGate busts things wide open

Post by rick » April 28, 2018, 1:33 pm

One thing which has not got much publicity is the declining strength of the AMOC ( Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, or North Atlantic drift). Two studies have suggested that it has declined by 15% since historical times. Changes in this current have been linked to rapid, dramatic changes in the climate of North America and particularly Northern Europe in the Geological record. Currently it is uncertain if this is being caused by natural processes or by rising CO2/Greenland ice melt levels, as the two studies looking at this used very different methods - although they agreed on the 15% decline.

Whatever the causes, we could be close to a tipping point .....

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-04086-4

Also i have mentioned the increased variability in the Jetstream before. It is currently not in it's usual position over North America, and it has had one positive side effect - no tornadoes so far this year in the USA. A new record .....

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