Indonesian sub missing.

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jackspratt
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Re: Indonesian sub missing.

Post by jackspratt » May 2, 2021, 12:16 pm

A more plausible explanation for the sinking of the sub:
There is no official cause yet for how this tragedy unfolded, but Indonesian authorities think it likely it was hit by a huge underwater wave.

They suspect the internal wave may have pushed the submarine below its crush depth, where the immense water pressure would have torn the hull apart.

Satellite images have revealed there was such a wave around the time the submarine disappeared.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/a ... e-tragedy/



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tamada
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Re: Indonesian sub missing.

Post by tamada » May 2, 2021, 12:48 pm

Very plausible. I worked in a couple of areas offshore where solitons caused by the collision of either cold and warm or fresh and salt water have cause up-welling and down-welling at significant currents across a broad wavefront. Equipment being towed near-surface was suddenly pulled deep with catastrophic results for some of the equipment.

Here's a link to an article that specifically investigates the internal wave phenomenon in the vicinity of the Lombok Straits. Maybe the Indonesian Navy was aware of these but discounted the risk until now? Maybe submarines best travel on the surface and avoid drills and exercises in this area.

https://tos.org/oceanography/article/oc ... bok-strait

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tamada
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Re: Indonesian sub missing.

Post by tamada » May 2, 2021, 1:18 pm

For those inclined to follow the science in depth, attached is an earlier, lengthy study done for the Office of Naval Research.

http://www.internalwaveatlas.com/Atlas_ ... uction.PDF

Interesting to note that the earliest recorded observations were in the great nation of Scotland.

"The earliest recognition of internal wave phenomena appears to have been by J. ScottRussell [1838, 1844] who reported on the formation of a single, unchanging hump or mound inthe shallow water of Scottish canal, generated when a towed barge was brought to a sharp halt inthe canal. Russell followed the wave for several miles on horseback until he lost it in the windings of the canal. ..."

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Re: Indonesian sub missing.

Post by vlad » May 2, 2021, 4:21 pm

If i correctly read it no more messages were transmitted from the Submarine to the Surface after his last message which was permission to dive. So to me a break up is probably the reason as no messages or distress calls were given. Metal fatigue age are likely the cause. As there was no explosion or crush noise it would not have been detected. The Indo navy chiefs only realised it had not replied to messages or not surfaced after the Exercise.

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tamada
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Re: Indonesian sub missing.

Post by tamada » May 2, 2021, 7:56 pm

vlad wrote:
May 2, 2021, 4:21 pm
If i correctly read it no more messages were transmitted from the Submarine to the Surface after his last message which was permission to dive. So to me a break up is probably the reason as no messages or distress calls were given. Metal fatigue age are likely the cause. As there was no explosion or crush noise it would not have been detected. The Indo navy chiefs only realised it had not replied to messages or not surfaced after the Exercise.
In a similar way to pilots of aircraft finding themselves in an uncontrollable situation, despite protocols heavy on alerting ATC first, a pilot's instincts are still "Aviate, navigate then communicate."

Assuming this submarine was in a conventional, controlled dive when this internal wave suddenly slammed it deeper, the first reactions would have been to control or 'aviate' while trying to eliminate if the issue was due to some onboard mechanical failure. All this while keeping tabs on their position, rate of descent, depth, pitch, bearing, etc., or 'navigate'. Given the relatively narrow range between operating depth and maximum depth, I doubt there was time to call the surface if indeed the communications systems were viable in an uncontrollable, short plunge into deeper water.

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jackspratt
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Re: Indonesian sub missing.

Post by jackspratt » May 2, 2021, 8:05 pm

vlad wrote:
May 2, 2021, 4:21 pm
If i correctly read it no more messages were transmitted from the Submarine to the Surface after his last message which was permission to dive. So to me a break up is probably the reason as no messages or distress calls were given. Metal fatigue age are likely the cause. As there was no explosion or crush noise it would not have been detected. The Indo navy chiefs only realised it had not replied to messages or not surfaced after the Exercise.
I'm pretty sure I posted this earlier, but it seems to have disappeared.

I'll try again.

vlad, did you read the 3 posts above yours?

(I've taken a screenshot this time, just in case).

Whistler
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Re: Indonesian sub missing.

Post by Whistler » May 2, 2021, 8:14 pm

tamada wrote:
May 2, 2021, 1:18 pm
For those inclined to follow the science in depth, attached is an earlier, lengthy study done for the Office of Naval Research.

http://www.internalwaveatlas.com/Atlas_ ... uction.PDF

Interesting to note that the earliest recorded observations were in the great nation of Scotland.

"The earliest recognition of internal wave phenomena appears to have been by J. ScottRussell [1838, 1844] who reported on the formation of a single, unchanging hump or mound inthe shallow water of Scottish canal, generated when a towed barge was brought to a sharp halt inthe canal. Russell followed the wave for several miles on horseback until he lost it in the windings of the canal. ..."
We all live in Scottish submarine, A Scottish submarine, a Scottish submarine and our fiends are all aboard, many of more of them are quarantined next next door.....and we live between the waves.....
All wagers will be settled 80 days after the race is over

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Drunk Monkey
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Re: Indonesian sub missing.

Post by Drunk Monkey » May 2, 2021, 9:49 pm

Fook this .. n fook.that .. we are talking about 50 plus lives lost .. young lives.. leaving wives kids moms n dads
Have some respect .. a song before death

https://youtu.be/oBA4E66fERQ
Claret n Blue all way thru .. Up the Iron
L2 Season 19/20 Codheads 0 Scunny 1 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i2qrsItFUug
8 minutes is the point of lift off !!!!!!!

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Re: Indonesian sub missing.

Post by dunroaming » May 2, 2021, 10:55 pm

Drunk Monkey wrote:
May 2, 2021, 9:49 pm
Fook this .. n fook.that .. we are talking about 50 plus lives lost .. young lives.. leaving wives kids moms n dads
Have some respect .. a song before death

https://youtu.be/oBA4E66fERQ
No words RIP respect

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