Are we into a Recession already here in Udon?

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parrot
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Re: Are we into a Recession already here in Udon?

Post by parrot » June 14, 2019, 6:18 pm

The tourist stats at http://www.atta.or.th/?p=4019 also point a grim picture (but point out lots of interesting details on tourism).



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Re: Are we into a Recession already here in Udon?

Post by the-monk » June 14, 2019, 8:22 pm

Thanks a lot Mr. Parrot. Indeed very interesting stats of a partial view of the Thai tourism industry. The ATTA ( association of travel agencies of Thailand) faces a shrinking market due to the technological changes, many, if not most young travellers managed their own trip using the different online tools such as booking agencies etc. The so-called FIT ( free Independent Traveller ) tend to bypass the ATTAs of this world. According to this BP article most ( 60 %) Chinese tourists in Phuket are FIT. The number of FIT would be required to get a better understanding where the Thai tourism industry stand today.

<< At present, the FIT numbers made up more than 60% of all Chinese tourists in Phuket, with less than 30% for in large tour groups, Mr Kongsak said. >>

https://www.bangkokpost.com/travel/in-t ... es-tourism

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Re: Are we into a Recession already here in Udon?

Post by saint » June 15, 2019, 8:39 am

Doodoo wrote:
June 14, 2019, 5:50 pm
One of the BEST(in my opinion) indications for how countries are doing is the Car Industry whether here or in North America.
Production/Sales UP things are doing well
Production/Sales Down we had better pull our horns in and hold on

Here is an excerpt regarding cars production here in Thailand

BANGKOK, 14 June 2019(NNT) - The Thai vehicle production yield in May 2019 was lower by 6.11 percent year-on-year due to implications from both domestic and international markets, says Federation of Thai Industries.

The Federation of Thai Industries’ Vice Chairman and Automobile Industry Club Spokesman, Surapong Paisitpatnapong announced yesterday that vehicle production in May 2019 was 181,338 units, which is 6.11 percent lower than the previous year due to declines in both domestic and international markets. The production yield for export was 94,476 units, which is a reduction of 8.11%, especially the production yield in sedan exports which was 31,657 units, an 18.86% reduction, while the production yield of pick-up trucks for export was 62,819 units, which is a 1.53 percent decline. These figures correspond to lower vehicle exports of 95,331 units, which is a 3.585% decline, resulting from lower exports to all markets except Asia, the Middle East, Europe, and North America. The total export value for May 2019 was 48.65 billion baht, which is a 6.22% reduction.

The automobile production yield for domestic sales was 86,862 units, lower by 3.83%. The production yield of sedan cars for domestic sales was 39,690 units, a 3.57% decline, while the production yield of pick-up trucks for domestic sales was 44,436 units, a 3.54% decline.
Bearing in mind that Thai banks have been considerably more cautious with lending over the last year or so , and that the Chinese car market is down 6% , and that the local Thais are feeling the pinch just like most of us , then i think the Thai car industry id still doing O K .
I hate to preach doom and gloom , but i personally see a Global recession just round the corner the way the finnacial and political world is going right now .

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Re: Are we into a Recession already here in Udon?

Post by jai yen yen » June 15, 2019, 10:37 am

For a strong healthy economy you need to have a well paid work force, a working man will spend his hard earned cash on his family and if there is any left over will buy something extra for his wife or children. It is our nature as working people. This stimulates the economy. Today we have corporations making huge profits and secreting the cash away in tax free havens and investments. The working class is getting less and less buying power so economies will falter. It is ironic that the greedy corporations are actually going to hurt themselves in the end with their greed. Let's not forget the greedy governments bleeding people dry as well. Things are only going to get worse.

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Re: Are we into a Recession already here in Udon?

Post by newtovillagelife » June 17, 2019, 1:51 pm

jai yen yen wrote:
June 15, 2019, 10:37 am
For a strong healthy economy you need to have a well paid work force, a working man will spend his hard earned cash on his family and if there is any left over will buy something extra for his wife or children. It is our nature as working people. This stimulates the economy. Today we have corporations making huge profits and secreting the cash away in tax free havens and investments. The working class is getting less and less buying power so economies will falter. It is ironic that the greedy corporations are actually going to hurt themselves in the end with their greed. Let's not forget the greedy governments bleeding people dry as well. Things are only going to get worse.
Short term thinking and greed, capitalism at its best.

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Re: Are we into a Recession already here in Udon?

Post by newtovillagelife » June 17, 2019, 1:54 pm

saint wrote:
June 15, 2019, 8:39 am
Doodoo wrote:
June 14, 2019, 5:50 pm
One of the BEST(in my opinion) indications for how countries are doing is the Car Industry whether here or in North America.
Production/Sales UP things are doing well
Production/Sales Down we had better pull our horns in and hold on

Here is an excerpt regarding cars production here in Thailand

BANGKOK, 14 June 2019(NNT) - The Thai vehicle production yield in May 2019 was lower by 6.11 percent year-on-year due to implications from both domestic and international markets, says Federation of Thai Industries.

The Federation of Thai Industries’ Vice Chairman and Automobile Industry Club Spokesman, Surapong Paisitpatnapong announced yesterday that vehicle production in May 2019 was 181,338 units, which is 6.11 percent lower than the previous year due to declines in both domestic and international markets. The production yield for export was 94,476 units, which is a reduction of 8.11%, especially the production yield in sedan exports which was 31,657 units, an 18.86% reduction, while the production yield of pick-up trucks for export was 62,819 units, which is a 1.53 percent decline. These figures correspond to lower vehicle exports of 95,331 units, which is a 3.585% decline, resulting from lower exports to all markets except Asia, the Middle East, Europe, and North America. The total export value for May 2019 was 48.65 billion baht, which is a 6.22% reduction.

The automobile production yield for domestic sales was 86,862 units, lower by 3.83%. The production yield of sedan cars for domestic sales was 39,690 units, a 3.57% decline, while the production yield of pick-up trucks for domestic sales was 44,436 units, a 3.54% decline.
Bearing in mind that Thai banks have been considerably more cautious with lending over the last year or so , and that the Chinese car market is down 6% , and that the local Thais are feeling the pinch just like most of us , then i think the Thai car industry id still doing O K .
I hate to preach doom and gloom , but i personally see a Global recession just round the corner the way the finnacial and political world is going right now .
Brought to you in part by President Trump.

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Re: Are we into a Recession already here in Udon?

Post by Giggle » June 17, 2019, 2:37 pm

Simpleton's bogey-man.

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Re: Are we into a Recession already here in Udon?

Post by pipoz4444 » June 18, 2019, 12:02 pm

I walked around several shopping centers in Udon Thani a few days ago, Central Plaza and the Big C by the Flyover. Both places seemed to be humming along with lots of shopper activity, but then again it was on a Saturday/Sunday. Also saw a lot of people eating in the Restaurant chains, like MK and the traditional KFC & Pizza places up in Central Plaza Food Court – can be one small indicator that some in Udon Thani, have excess money to spend.

Same with Makro, very busy on the Saturday, as might be expected

I will say that when walking through the carparks in both Central Plaza and Big C, I also noticed the quality/newness of the vehicles. Most cars looked both relatively new and in very god condition, no Shitters to be seen? Pretty much the same when driving on the roads, which can be a one indicator that some in Udon Thani are doing better. Yes, I also understand that many have their cars on finance, nevertheless not all people do and also Thai’s tend to value the look of their Cars more than they value the look of their Homes and their Bank Statements.

Overall though, I got the feeling that Udon Thani is not doing it too hard at present, although this was only a 2 day snapshot, of probably the more busy shopping centers. I will admit, I don’t know how the rest around town are doing

pipoz4444

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Re: Are we into a Recession already here in Udon?

Post by stattointhailand » June 18, 2019, 12:36 pm

"Brought to you in part by President Trump."

Giggle replied....

"Simpleton's bogey-man."

whereas what he obviously meant to say was "Simpleton Bogey-man" which is a far more accurate description =;

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Re: Are we into a Recession already here in Udon?

Post by stattointhailand » June 18, 2019, 12:41 pm

I suspect that if a govt is paying B100,000 towards the cost of a new car at certain times and not others, the year on year comparisons being used for your argument my be somewhat skewed for the next decade or so :-k

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Re: Are we into a Recession already here in Udon?

Post by parrot » June 18, 2019, 2:07 pm

stattointhailand wrote:
June 18, 2019, 12:41 pm
I suspect that if a govt is paying B100,000 towards the cost of a new car at certain times and not others, the year on year comparisons being used for your argument my be somewhat skewed for the next decade or so :-k
That program ended in 2012.

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Re: Are we into a Recession already here in Udon?

Post by stattointhailand » June 18, 2019, 2:57 pm

parrot wrote:
June 18, 2019, 2:07 pm
stattointhailand wrote:
June 18, 2019, 12:41 pm
I suspect that if a govt is paying B100,000 towards the cost of a new car at certain times and not others, the year on year comparisons being used for your argument my be somewhat skewed for the next decade or so :-k
That program ended in 2012.
Certainly not disputing that fact ...... or the fact that by 2013 many had been bumped/scraped/or completely written off (the GOLDEN year for Thai panel beaters and painters), however I suspect that quite a few are still being used in 2019 with the owners unable to purchase a replacement at 100% retail price, thus skewing any comparisons of new car sales over the last decade or so

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Re: Are we into a Recession already here in Udon?

Post by johanthomsen » June 19, 2019, 2:23 am

Is it inevitable that many places in Thailand will run into recession... Prices on many goods have gone up aswell as other services, but the average Thai person does not earn the deficit in prices..
I have heard from many people in the village I live in, that things are getting very hard economically, and with the Thai way of often putting themselves deep into debt can cause a massive slide the wrong way.
Last edited by johanthomsen on June 19, 2019, 8:14 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Are we into a Recession already here in Udon?

Post by jai yen yen » June 19, 2019, 6:17 am

johanthomsen wrote:
June 19, 2019, 2:23 am
Is it not inevitable that many places in Thailand will run into recession... Prices on many goods have gone up aswell as other services, but the average Thai person does not earn the deficit in prices..
I have heard from many people in the village I live in, that things are getting very hard economically, and with the Thai way of often putting themselves deep into debt can cause a massive slide the wrong way.
My Thai wife says the same, her mom and family as well as the rest of the people living in her village are feeling it. Prices are up and work is harder to find.

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Re: Are we into a Recession already here in Udon?

Post by Doodoo » June 19, 2019, 6:43 am

One item I buy at Makro in a little over one year has gone form 14 baht a kilo to yesterday 29 baht a kilo

Slowly but surely the prices are inched up but like people say wages are not up and work is difficult to locate

I certainly don't like to discuss this recession but if one does not then they will be runover when it does happen

As the Scouts Motto is "Be Prepared"

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Re: Are we into a Recession already here in Udon?

Post by Doodoo » June 21, 2019, 1:07 pm

Well it was 29 Baht a Kilo and within days it is up to 30 at Makro
Then it has been a 114% Increase in just over a year starting at 14 baht
I guess I am in the wrong business

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Re: Are we into a Recession already here in Udon?

Post by parrot » June 21, 2019, 2:01 pm

Doodoo wrote:
June 21, 2019, 1:07 pm
Well it was 29 Baht a Kilo and within days it is up to 30 at Makro
Then it has been a 114% Increase in just over a year starting at 14 baht
I guess I am in the wrong business
What's "one item"? tomatoes, onions, carrots, fruit? The price of those items vary throughout the year. My 1kg box of Kellogg's cornflakes has cost 94 baht at Ngeesoon for at least 4 years.....probably nearer to 6. That doesn't mean that there's been no inflation. Likewise, the kg of green onions that my wife buys in the market today might cost 20 Baht, but next week might cost 60 Baht. That doesn't mean there's been any inflation. That's just a seasonal price change.....happens on most any produce all year long.

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Re: Are we into a Recession already here in Udon?

Post by AlexO » June 21, 2019, 4:40 pm

Parrot
To use seasonal fruit/vegetables prices is I agree, a wee bit silly but, there are big indicators the Hi So's are maintaining a very high Baht exchange rate while buying in big time into Western European property etc. So when the inevitable slowdown comes (the 10 year cycle)the Baht against all other currencies they win big style. Just hoping not as bad as before.

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Re: Are we into a Recession already here in Udon?

Post by Doodoo » June 22, 2019, 6:04 am

This is not a Produce item I am concerned about

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Re: Are we into a Recession already here in Udon?

Post by jackspratt » June 22, 2019, 7:41 am

Like parrot, I am also curious - what is the "one item"?

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