Why low foreign currency values

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bluejets
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Why low foreign currency values

Post by bluejets » February 13, 2019, 7:53 am

Others are the same but for us it's the Aussie dollar.

I am by no means familiar with the driving force behind cross currency values but find it ( as many others do also) difficult to take the fact that the dollar is so low compared with say 6 or 7 years ago.

There was a time when we would look to the US dollar trend and the baht then would pretty much follow but even this is not applicable anymore.

Back around 2012 it was anywhere between 28 to 30 baht to the dollar but now at just over 20, my wife is tending to agree, no visit to Thailand this year.

We usually come each year for a month or so to visit family and I look forward to each visit normally.

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747man
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Re: Why low foreign currency values

Post by 747man » February 13, 2019, 11:37 am

bluejets wrote:
February 13, 2019, 7:53 am
Others are the same but for us it's the Aussie dollar.

I am by no means familiar with the driving force behind cross currency values but find it ( as many others do also) difficult to take the fact that the dollar is so low compared with say 6 or 7 years ago.

There was a time when we would look to the US dollar trend and the baht then would pretty much follow but even this is not applicable anymore.

Back around 2012 it was anywhere between 28 to 30 baht to the dollar but now at just over 20, my wife is tending to agree, no visit to Thailand this year.

We usually come each year for a month or so to visit family and I look forward to each visit normally.
Because The Thai Baht is Artifichially ( Sp ? ) HIGH & Like my GBP,You're Aussie Dollar is " Piss Poor "

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Re: Why low foreign currency values

Post by TJ » February 13, 2019, 4:23 pm

A business that sells (and buys) gold and silver coins and non-currency rounds and bars provides a chart of the spot prince of gold (and other precious metals) in U.S. dollars for ten years or so. If you could acquire two such charts, one being the price for gold in Thai baht and another in the price of your home country currency, it might indicate how your exchange with the Thai baht has varied over time. I would think a comparison of these two charts would be a testimonial of how well your currency has held its own against the Thai baht. Though it might be interesting, it would not be useful for future predictions.

Mikedee43
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Re: Why low foreign currency values

Post by Mikedee43 » February 15, 2019, 5:08 pm

In my opinion it's how the financial crisis was handled a few years back. The European banks and maybe Australian as well, called in all the "Toxic Loans". Houses and cars were lost and the economy slowed down. Banks went bust and it was financial and economic mayhem.
Thailand ? Carried on as normal, banks lending money at high interest rates for cars, houses, motorbikes etc. Industry carried on as normal to keep up demand and there certainly didn't appear to be a recession over here.
Maybe the Thai Baht bubble will burst again at some stage but it has been going from strength to strength for the last 10 years and shows no sign of slowing down

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747man
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Re: Why low foreign currency values

Post by 747man » February 16, 2019, 1:50 pm

Thailand ? Carried on as normal, banks lending money at high interest rates for cars, houses, motorbikes etc

But Apparently The Thai Banks are NOT Doing it Now !!

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parrot
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Re: Why low foreign currency values

Post by parrot » February 16, 2019, 2:46 pm

A few signs that the economy isn't tanking (after traveling recently to Bangkok, Phuket, Samui, and NKP)

There are Help Wanted signs everywhere. There's no shortage of new construction......homes, buildings, condos, roads. There's a good number of red license plates on the road. Good quality restaurants are busy. No shortage of people buying good/better quality pet foods for their animals.....and paying to get their fur cut/styled as well. More and more and more young guys riding big bikes (well, bigger than what was the standard a few years ago). Most everyone has their own smartphone and laptop and decent speed internet access.
Where are the people getting their money? I'd guess the same place they got it 10 or 15 years ago. Yet, I don't see any evidence of people hobbling around with their knees in a cast.

pipoz4444
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Re: Why low foreign currency values

Post by pipoz4444 » February 16, 2019, 2:57 pm

A Country can prop up its currency, if it doesn't have a lot of its currency floating and being traded off shore, i.e. with the majority of its currency being exchanged on shore, which is what I suspect Thailand has and manages to control. In this scenario, the Thai Reserve Bank has more control over its daily exchange rate value, given the amount/volume traded outside the country on any one day, is relatively small.

The question is why does the Thai Reserve Bank want a strong (low exchange rate) Thai Baht. My view is, so that it can slowly build up its Reserves in USD and other Currencies, for the time it may be needed. Buy at a good price now and maybe sell some later if and when the exchange rate reached TB 34 plus to the USD. I know this seems in conflict with the first paragraph, but in all probability the Thai Reserve Bank is doing most of its buying from the local Thai Banks and local Money Changes, at this artificially low exchange rate.

What the Thai Reserve Bank is most likely saying to the local Thai Banks and local Money Changes is "This is all that I am going to give you today as an ExR", a bit like they do with Gold

The fact that Thai Reserve Bank setting the ground rules for giving the Tourists on shore, a poor/lower rate (only effects its Tourists and what they spend or don't spend on and f...ks the Hotelier and Restaurant businesses). That and the Thai Reserve Bank is also forcing its Manufacturer's to pay more for buying any of their raw materials or goods form outside the Country (only affects those who buy the good and sends may send some Thai Companies belly up and put people out of work), doesn't worry the short term mentality of the Thai Reserve Bank Board of Directors, who still keep their high Salaries and luxurious life styles. They will simply blame the downturn in the Thai Economy when it trickles through in 3 - 6 months on other unrelated Factors.

It's a short term/conceited mentality, by the Thai Reserve Bank, divorced of any concern for the overall welfare of the Thai Business Economy and those who work in the Thai Private Sector

Just my two cents worth

pipoz444
Last edited by pipoz4444 on February 17, 2019, 1:02 pm, edited 4 times in total.

NongKhaiLee
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Re: Why low foreign currency values

Post by NongKhaiLee » February 16, 2019, 3:30 pm

Do a quick search on world list of currency manipulation, Peterson Institute for International Economics will come up with an interesting chart.

SJP17
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Re: Why low foreign currency values

Post by SJP17 » February 16, 2019, 8:59 pm

Brexit is killing the pound at the moment.

Anyone think we will see a return to the low fiftys to the pound this year ?

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dezzer111
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Re: Why low foreign currency values

Post by dezzer111 » February 16, 2019, 11:14 pm

SJP17 wrote:
February 16, 2019, 8:59 pm
Brexit is killing the pound at the moment.

Anyone think we will see a return to the low fiftys to the pound this year ?
Keep​ dreaming mate​😂
"You'll Never Walk Alone"L.F.C.

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747man
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Re: Why low foreign currency values

Post by 747man » February 16, 2019, 11:35 pm

SJP17 wrote:
February 16, 2019, 8:59 pm
Brexit is killing the pound at the moment.

Anyone think we will see a return to the low fiftys to the pound this year ?
Nah, NOT This Year Or Next Year Either IMO......

SJP17
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Re: Why low foreign currency values

Post by SJP17 » February 16, 2019, 11:42 pm

dezzer111 wrote:
February 16, 2019, 11:14 pm
SJP17 wrote:
February 16, 2019, 8:59 pm
Brexit is killing the pound at the moment.

Anyone think we will see a return to the low fiftys to the pound this year ?
Keep​ dreaming mate​😂
Your probably right though we might see a spike if some sort of brexit deal is signed id imagine, no deal could push it lower than 40 but i reckon that would be quite short lived before it went up again.

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parrot
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Re: Why low foreign currency values

Post by parrot » February 17, 2019, 12:42 pm


skinner
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Re: Why low foreign currency values

Post by skinner » February 17, 2019, 1:12 pm

The only hope of the baht weakening much is if it all kicks off politically.
Theres always the chance of that with all the usual idiots trying to get power.
Who knows what will happen with the pound.Luckily it doesnt affect me much.

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rick
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Re: Why low foreign currency values

Post by rick » February 17, 2019, 7:04 pm

To all intents and purposes the GBP is below 40 already, hit a low of 40.06 on Thursday. That is money market rates, not what the traders will give you .....

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